Wet Wet Wet!

10am Saturday…

I’m under the weather this weekend as they say…in fact I took the 2nd half of yesterday off since I was all hoarse and felt like, well, you know.  But a beautiful 11 hours of sleep.

Screaming message is that we have a LOT of rain the next 8-10 days.  We could end up with our typical December total by next Sunday, the 13th.  Hopefully we’ll avoid flooding since after Wednesday they will be cold storms.  But it’s going to feel like old-fashioned December weather!

Take a look at both meteograms from the ECMWF and GFS.  The ECMWF has consistently been forecasting higher totals for the next 10 days.  I chose Salem to get away from the higher totals sometimes forecast for PDX since it’s much closer to that wet bullseye over the S. Washington Cascades.  Click for a better view

You get the idea…consistently wet for the next 10 days.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

61 Responses to Wet Wet Wet!

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    I 5 May have fog. It just became really foggy here.

  2. Garron (1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro airport) says:

    WOW! B. Mac’s epic rainfall graphic for the local area showed 6+inches by Wed. Record high temps on the way too, the next two days at or above 60 D/F.


  3. Lee Wilson says:

    We have thunder.
    It’s slow and low rumbles.
    It sounds far away. No signs of lightning.
    Can any one else verify ?

  4. Lee Wilson says:

    Wet is an understatement,
    And what is up with the geese?
    Why are they returning so soon?

  5. Mark bergal says:

    Snowstorm where? Mountains or lowlands?

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    18Z GFS best yet with cold temps and abundant precipitation setting up December 10 thru Dec. 22 with at or below freezing at 5K feet the whole run. Snowstorm Fri. Dec. 18th 850mb temps -5C with 925mb at -1C, 0.93″ precipitation.

  7. runrain says:

    Gotten quite windy here in Happy Valley all of a sudden.

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    It’s gone stalemate up in here.

  9. paulbeugene says:

    Sunday 11:30am

    Wind: as active as the pattern looks to be in the next 5-7 days, with strong jet across the NE Pacific Ocean, there will be a series of low pressure centers progressing SW to NE, and it looks like strongest low will develop around Wednesday into Thursday but models keep it quite far offshore and headed to N Vancouver Is. If there was going to be a “surprise” windstorm, it would be some sort of secondary low developing at a triple point (occluded/cold/warm) associated with the Wed/thurs low. Odds are that we will have the usual normal blustery weather in the Willamette Valley with gusts into the advisory range on a couple occasions.

    Rain: a couple days ago, the Euro was suggesting that we head to the lumberyard and build an ark, but it looks like 4-6″ 7 day precipitation amounts are most likely for the Willamette Valley. Coastal rivers, Tualatin river, Johnson creek most at risk of flooding, as well as Chehalis.

    Snow (in Casades): After Wednesday, mean 850mb temperatures dip to zero C and below, supportive of accumulating snows at pass elevation. Long range models are maintaining mean trough over the Western USA into the Christmas holiday. I would be surprised if all ski areas are not open by Dec 20.

  10. Mark bergal says:

    That is a hell of a lot of rain. From what i read, no arctic air in the country for the rest of the month. Not sure a widespread snowstorm is in our future.

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    00Z ECMWF Showing a nice low dropping along the BC coastline from the NW for Sunday the 13th.

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Geez all this weather excitement and the blog really died.
    Hope your feeling better today Mark and getting up to speed on all the weather models. A big weather week to say the least. If you have a sump pump under house make sure it works!!!

  13. Jason Hougak says:

    Timberline and Meadows continuing to pick up snow. Snow looks to continue into this evening before the barrage of rain. The 2-3 day event will be hard on the 2′ base. Just hoping that we are able to keep at least half from washing away. 6Z GFS still following previous model runs on colder air. Not Arctic but that’s good because it’s showing ample moisture for building snowpack. An arctic airmass which is cold and dry isn’t quite what the mountain needs… yet!

  14. () says:

    Does anybody think California won’t be getting the rain they say? A little out of subject, just curious. I’m happy we are getting the rain though.

    • JackFrost says:

      As long as they don’t suck ours dry next summer to sustain them.

    • Rob - S.E. Portland says:

      Late December/mid January onward should be their turn, but in my opinion this Fall isn’t acting like a typical Nino either, at least not yet.

  15. schmit44 says:

    12/5/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:63 at North Bend Munic( 16 ft)
    Low: 53 at BANDON(79 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    High:24 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 1 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    CRANE PRAIRIE (35/1 ) (5500 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.85″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    1.04″ at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89ft)
    1.03″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.95″ at OCNSID Oceanside(22ft)
    0.92″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.91″ at CW9821 Gleneden(49ft)

  16. schmit44 says:

    Deadline to enter is December 6th


  17. rubusleucodermis says:

    Looks like this winter is shaping up to be (as I have been forecasting for a while) another instance of the strongest El Niño events not being dry ones for us.

  18. runrain says:

    NWS discussion is quite detailed and has some good stuff. Good possibilities for strong winds Tuesday. Paul called that one.

  19. Jason Hougak says:

    Climate Prediction Center on board showing below average temps with above average precipitation.

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    Looping the N. Hemisphere on the GFS loop showing the developing pattern coming up. Looks like good Rosby Wave development to me.

  21. Jason Hougak says:

    The CFSv2 model also showing this colder pattern setting up into the new year.

  22. Mark bergal says:

    Just astonishing how fast things change. Who would have predicted this in October. Could be a banner year after all and maybe a snow event to boot. An el nino with a different attitude

  23. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    18z, no changes. An absolute ton of mountain snow Thursday evening-night onward. Models have been fairly consistent on this.

    Feel better, Mark.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      18Z lowered the precipitation amount for Dec. 20th but that’s model riding. Model showing temps colder with -7C at 5K. I’d say snow very likely down to 1,000-500′ Dec. 13-21st.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      The ski resorts really need this. I really need this! Hope it comes to fruition!

  24. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    I just love this parade of storms. Going to rain like a mother in a few hours as those strengthening cloud tops move in. The jet stream is feeding this baby. More QPF overnight than forecast. Looks like the front is stalling. Get out your row boats. I love these December nights.

  25. Anonymous says:

    I hope you feel better soon . Merry Christmas

  26. paulbeugene says:

    Sat 1pm
    Yes looks wet. Models backing off a little from precip totals next 7-10 days but 4-7″ totals are not insignificant . Probably no flooding on Willamette or its tributaries except Johnson Creek, Tualitin River (usual suspects).
    Snow in Cascades looks good, mostly beyond Dec 9-11 or so.
    Ensembles suggest negative 500mb anomalies centered over west USA between day 7-15, good for Cascade snows. The Ratskeller won’t have to go bankrupt after all. I hope they get rid of the canned mushrooms from their pizza…bleccchhh gag (everything else is good especially their beer after a day on the mountain .

    Not seeing any Arctic blasts in next two weeks. The Pineapple Express to arctic blast sequence of events, particularly in first half of winter, is well documented in PacNW weather lore/history but am not seeing it happen this time. Am not sure I would call this a pineapple anyhow. It is a mango express from the Phillipines

  27. Paul D says:

    Quit beating around the bush, Mark. Just come out and say it’s going to be wet 🙂

  28. Jason Hougak says:

    Drive down from Timberline between 4500′-5000′
    Looking southwest toward Ski Bowl and south over Trillium Lake for your snow viewing pleasure

  29. Jason Hougak says:

  30. Jason Hougak says:

    Looking amazing if it pans out

  31. MasterNate says:

    Nothing better than a good 11 hrs of sleep when your feeling like… I’m looking foreword to lots of base building snow later next week, but not the possibility of epic rain in the valley. Get lots of rest, we need you come Monday! Just realized that the blog snow direction follows my cursor movements on the screen. I don’t remember that happening before.

  32. Jason Hougak says:

    12Z GFS a thing of beauty if it comes through for Dec. 20th at 00Z. 850mb temps. -4C with 1.04″ of precipitation. A monster snowstorm. 925mb temps at 1C so a snowstorm possible all elevations. The entire stretch from Dec. 10-21st looking great for ski areas with at or below freezing the entire time. There is hardly a break in precipitation. This is out there and model has been trending this cooler way for awhile now so we’lol see.

    • MasterNate says:

      Its definably looking promising for the mountains. Lets hope the pattern verifies and lasts for awhile!

    • You’ll need at least -7 at 850mb with even light onshore flow for that to be snow down to the valley. 33-35 degree rain with some chunks with that setup me thinks. Also, the Columbian basin doesn’t have any built up arctic air either.

      I do like that the GFS and Euro are keeping colder more typical December weather around. Wish it was more a long the lines of -7 to -10 at 850mb.

  33. Phil in Beaverton says:

    So much for a dryer, warmer El Nino winter. Not that I’m complaining, a repeat of last “winter” could have been diasterous. Looks like we had our El Nino winter last year.

  34. Mike says:

    feel better Mark.

  35. Jason Hougak says:

    Where’s the ! On your first Mark? Is it because your “under the weather.” Get rest and excited about the weather action, I’m loving it other than the high snow level for three days. Timberline was awesome yesterday with a decent base on the main run and good powdery snow with temps in the mid 20’s.

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