Refreezing Unlikely For Morning Commute


Whew…way too close this evening.  But over the last two hours just about all readings in the metro area have held steady or even risen a degree or two.  Good news, the evaporational cooling from rain falling into dry air has ended.


So unless we get some sudden clearing towards daybreak after the precip ends we should be all clear for the AM commute.

Models are pretty insistent on keeping the atmosphere saturated the next 12 hours so that’s why I’m pretty confident that we’ll avoid clearing sky.

Lots of thick ice in the West Hills, Mt. Scott, and East Portland/Gresham/Troutdale areas.  Again, luckily not on the roads.

On to rainy and windy weather at times over the next 8-10 days…should be more weather fun ahead!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to Refreezing Unlikely For Morning Commute

  1. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    The east wind has really ramped up the past 10 minutes? This is starting to get really strong guys, gals, and furry woodland creatures alike. My trees are making a ton of noise it is roaring even before it reaches my house now! There is a pretty decent chance I’ll be back sooner than I’d like. This wind is going to be very hard to sleep. Make it hard to sleep rather. If you’re east of I-205 north of Powell, it’s going to be crazy tonight. WRF shows PDX-DLS was supposed to be at -7mb right now and it is actually currently -11.2mb. Way off!

    As the low develops off to the southwest it starts to move into a more optimal location/placement to more efficiently “pull” winds through the Gorge. This may increase further with perhaps power outages, Wind Advisories, the whole 9 yards.. As far as the south winds, yeah this could be a pretty major deal. Water Vapor loop shows it is really cranking and developing pretty good and it’s going to cross the infamous critical 40 N, 130 W location for classic Pacific NW Wind Storms. This will probably be a shocker, but I am not going to be tracking this minute-by-minute with zoomed WV Images, Nah. Going to try to sleep.

  2. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    Raining a lot right now in Salem. Had quite a bit of rain last night also. Looking forward to see how windy it gets Thursday. Nice active pattern.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Snow Report
    Bachelor is doing quite well with a good base to year to date ratio 75%, 27″ base with 36″ since Oct. 1st. Timberline has 23″ base with 65″ a dismal 35%. A lot of winter to go and I feel mid December will bring some much needed snow. Ski Bowl may go outta business if this year busts too.

  4. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    A double whammy wind storm/event, then the massive sub 950mb low in the Gulf of Alaska causes the pattern to buckle abruptly near day 9-10, amplified pattern ensues, block in sweet spot… arctic air(if 850s are cold enough in AK-YK-NWT

  5. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    PDX-DLS now -11.5mb, that is over 3mb stronger than 12z WRF forecast(peak of 8mb). Troutdale has already gusted to 46, 47, 49 mph. I would not be surprised if the gradient exceeds -12mb, maybe peaking -14mb? Wind Advisory east of I-205 I can see that coming. Oh, did I mention 00z GFS/CMC both have a much stronger/compact low around 985mb rapidly developing off the southern Oregon Coast, then scoots it northward tomorrow morning. 4km Wind Gust on 00z WRF has 45-50kt gusts over PDX with at least a PDX-EUG gradient of 10mb. Medford NWS mentioned the potential for explosive cyclogenesis, and both models have indicated this. But WAIT, there’s more! 00z GFS HR 168 pretty big wind storm 980mb low with 160kt jet support. Real potential. A very exciting weather week is emerging.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Hey Mark anybody send in some good ice storm pix?
    18Z GFS looks like colder weather with mountain snow Dec. 10-18 with 850mb temps 0 to -5C. Not Arctic but snow down to pass and below.

  7. Washougal 1100ft says:

    Power is out! 33 out with ice still everywhere. Wounder is round two is on it’s way tonight be close to more zr?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Should be liquid rain for you instead of ice pellets. Should get some additional accumulation, but you might somehow pop above the cold air later tonight.

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    48° in Sandy but just 5 miles away it’s 37° here. Pretty amazing how there’s an 11° difference in just 5 miles.

  9. paulbeugene says:

    Wednesday 1pm

    Got 0.6″ precip in Eugene in past 24h. More to come, overall looks like 3-5″ in the Willamette Valley in next 10 days…rain that is.

    I don’t see a sustained period of precipitation with 850mb temps at or below 0C until late next week. Things are looking rather promising beyond that point for enough snow to fall at the lower elevation ski resorts to get them open, hopefully, by Friday Dec 18. Given that is beyond day 10, it is a breakable promise.

    No arctic air in sight.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Only GOLU model info comes with a promise!

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      It does look like we will be getting cooler late next week. But I see that the high moves ever closer.. shutting off the mtn snow again??

  10. LDT says:

    I was so disappointed to see warm temps (36F) and rain on timberline’s webcam this am. When it’s this cold in the city I always expect it to be 15-20 degrees colder on Hood but it seems that just isn’t the case. Is the warm air at that elevation caused by the warm Pacific waters? All the precip that should be falling as snow is coming down as rain.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      It’s because of the inversion. The warm southern winds are happening up above on the mountain but we are getting the cold east winds down here. Once the east winds stop, things will go back to normal.

  11. Quite the soaker up this way. 0.90″ in the past 24 hours. Not even a spot of freezing rain within many miles.

  12. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Glazed snow on the groin sounds painful, Mat. I hope your condition improves soon.

  13. CfromTTD says:

    Would anyone be willing to post links to the GFS website or other forecasting sites?

  14. Lots of excitement down in your area. Up here in Vancouver, BC we stayed well into the 40’s all night. Just plain old rain!

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    GFS has been consistent in dropping cold air down around December 11-14.

  16. Max in Fairview says:

    Just lost power here. Notice the trees are caked in ice.

  17. Mark bergal says:

    Thats one cold rain out tonight. Seems we have already had more Winter since November than all of last year. Liking it!

  18. Rob - S.E. Portland says:

    Yeah, the higher RH values should keep us cloudy… should. I am hoping I have power by morning. There are some large branches atop my elm tree that are bending badly. If they snap they will likely take out the power line. I’m not liking this at all….

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Yes you are, and so am I. I can’t lie. Its fun stuff. Temp ip to 21.6 now and rising fairly quickly. Moderate sleet/zr now. Everything glazed, including the snow that’s been on the groin for over a week now. Should be gone over next few days though and by the looks of model trends and the CFS, looks to come back sometime mid month. We shall see though.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      CFS… chicken fried steak, yum that just made me hungry Mat!

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