ECMWF Weekly Maps

3rd run in the past 10 days showing quite a bit of ridging lingering near us to the north and east.  Very interesting that WeatherBELL forecast this “classic” El Nino pattern for a winter average.

Weeks 1-4, click on each for a larger view

While examining the dailies it looked less ridgy to me in that last week, with heights actually a bit below normal overhead.  The 32 day rain total for the Willamette Valley is about 4″ with the ensembles and only around 2″ on the control run.  That control run only showed 1′ or so of snow in the Cascades…we’ll hope that’s not the case.  The ensembles had 2-3′ of snow in the Cascades by Christmas Eve (Day 32)

Big picture:  Warmer than normal mountain temps are possible along with drier than normal weather through the next 2+ weeks.


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

20 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. billowen123 says:

    HEY MARK, Great Post as usual. Lots of info to support what you are saying. This winter should be interesting because of El Nino. Your graphs and stats are quite educational. I always read your stuff.

  2. W7ENK says:

    And thus, our lack-of-winter nightmare begins… again.

  3. JsckFrost says:

    At least we are not alone in this crapfest. Europe has had way above normal temps too and little to no snow in Europes best ski centres anywhere

  4. paulbeugene says:

    Pattern in next several days similar to what was seen in first or second week of November 1957. Wet, mild conditions returned within about a week. Looking at the Euro and GFS, probably will turn wet again beyond day 8 or so. Ensemble means don’t show any negative 850mb temp anomalies through day 15 though, which translates to snow levels remaining mostly at or above pass elevation. At least we can hope to get a good base of concrete over the upper ski area elevations so the wind doesn’t blow it away.

    • paulbeugene says:

      It got down to 24 degrees on Nov 4 in Eugene in 1957, did not get colder at night the rest of the winter, no snow either (in Eugene).

      At Government Camp, in winter of 57-58, snowfall totals by month: Oct 1″, Nov 18″, Dec 73″, Jan 69″, Feb 58″, Mar 53″, Apr 9″, total season snow 281″

      For winter of 69-70:

      Oct 0″, Nov 16″, Dec 51″, Jan 142″, Feb 55″, Mar 35″, Apr 15″, total season snow 316″.

      Both those seasons (El Ninos) had above normal snowfall.

      I’m not too worried about the higher elevations. I think they will get snow this winter.

      Would be nice to sneak in a December 1919 in there (there was some sort of a Nino going on then).

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Good points about wet next week. Those snow totals sure seem high for Gov’t Camp in warm El Nino winter. Weak El Nino?

    • paulbeugene says:

      57-58 was strong with ONI up to 1.7. 1969-70 was weak though.

      72-73 was strong el nino with ONI up to 2.0. Govy had 284″ that season (also above historical average).

  5. BlazerFan32 says:

    Hi Mark

    Well, here comes the end of November and we are drying out it looks like. Hmm at least for around a week anyway according to NWS Seattle’s forecast discussion this afternoon. They said with not great certainty in the 7 and beyond day forecast period that things were looking to consolidate from the west once again. If they were going strictly by the GFS model I will believe it when I surely see it. You know me I have a ECMWF bias.

    Meanwhile, here in Southeast Tacoma the last 5 days including today have had a low of freezing here in my backyard. 32,26,28,27, and 28. Currently tonight at 10:20 PM it is 40 degrees with clouds overhead. I have 0.14 inches of rain so far today. That makes 7.52 inches for the month which is about 1.49 inches above normal for the month of November. The year so far stands at 33.61 inches and so far that would be my lowest total for a year in 8 years of record if today was the end of the year. I need to beat 35.79 back in 2013. My average over the 8 years is 44.85 inches and the most was 52.34 in 2014.

    I am still thinking here or wondering I guess if the affects of El Nino are going to be stronger than normal either way. What I mean by that, either more wider spread in coverage over the west as a whole with rain and snow or simply really dry and on top of that snowless like last winter was since the blob is still around in the North Pacific.

    I sure hope it is not like last winter, that was pathetic. Worse than 2004-05 and 1976-77. :/

  6. Boring Oregon says:

    Maybe/hopefully January and February will actually be like winter this time.

  7. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Here’s a graph of last winter at Hoodoo (Santiam pass). Pretty indicative of the general Cascade snowpack . Let’s hope we don’t get a repeat..

  8. JohnD says:

    Geez…maybe things will change. Lots of time left after that period!

  9. Boring Oregon says:

    So not looking good for a white Christmas already?

  10. Vinnybob says:

    Just wait till next season again.

  11. Mark bergal says:

    Still, this isnt the resilient warm ridging we had last year, right?

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