A Weekend Break

I will be “offline” through Tuesday afternoon taking a long weekend, so no blog posts.  That said, I think I can summarize the forecast anyway:

Rainy, then cooler & showery, then rainy and warmer.  That covers the next 4 days pretty well.  Right now this is what I’m thinking for Cascade snow:

MarkCascadeSnowOutlookEarlySeason

Unless the Monday snow fails to materialize, I think this could be enough to open the bunny slopes and maybe one more lift at Meadows and Timberline next weekend…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

184 Responses to A Weekend Break

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    NWS says winter weather advisory, while Mt Hood Meadows says winter storm warning. At least there’s some type of snow advisory.

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    This is looking nice
    http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

  3. David B. says:

    Another frosty morning up this way. That mild air sure didn’t last (nor was it forecast to).

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Got Mark?

    Where is he on hyaidis😆

  5. We missed much of the winds in my area yesterday. It did get blustery, but no power outages. Nice to see some sunshine and no heavy rainfalls for the next few days. My rainfall total for this month is 9.47 inches. Just 0.10 inches more and it will be my wettest month since December 2012. (and that’s just 0.78 inches higher).

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Potential of colder weather getting inside of the 7 day window (next week). GFS ensemble mean trending colder, as is the Euro ensemble. It looks as if there is a good chance of lows at night getting into the mid 20s at night in the Willamette Valley by Thanksgiving. Some ensemble members are 5-10 degrees colder than that though.

  7. alohabb says:

    My dang phone weather app wants to put snow in the forecast for Wednesday with a high of 42 and snow again Friday with a high of 37 , turkey day looks like an interesting one

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Don’t get your hopes up. This has happened a lot and it never materializes . This even happened last year.

  8. W7ENK says:

    Again? Tonight?? Really???

    FLOOD WATCH
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    358 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/26940322

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      We are still below normal for the month. We need more rain. Not much after this storm for at least 4 days or so.

  9. schmit44 says:

    11/17/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:68 at ECHO( 683 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 54 at WYETH(102 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at FISH CREEK(7660 ft) & HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
    Low: 20 at Mt Hood Meadows (6540 ft ) & HARL BUTTE (6071 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    CW3808 Enterpris (54/28 ) (3927 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    5.00″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    4.50″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    4.00″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    3.70″ at RED HILL(4410ft)
    3.59″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    3.57″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    3.56″ at RYE MOUNTAIN(2000ft)
    3.50″ at Mt Hood Meadows(5380ft)
    3.32″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    720 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2015

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=pqr&pil=pns

  11. Weedeater says:

    Dope fropa!

    • sds says:

      Dumped 2.3″ overnite, .62 this afternoon and .3at 4PM–and that was before fropa this evening.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      👍👍
      I wish it was an Ana front we’d be getting a crazy snowfall, temperature has dropped 6 degrees in the past 1/2 hour.

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    What a squall line with heaviest rain I’ve just about ever seen, flash flood and wind squall burst for 30 seconds that sounded like the roof blew off. Quite exciting. And of course no power. Nice to have the generator backup. 😀👍

    • sds says:

      Jason

      At 6PM the weather stats at Mt. Bachelor showed average wind speed of 135mph and gusts of 172mph–that would blow anyones roof off!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      No kidding, that’s the kind of stuff frequently seen on Mt. Washington New Hampshire.

    • runrain says:

      I was up on Mt. Washington this summer. Low 40’s with winds gusting to around 40mph. A nice summer day for them, actually. A hot day gets them into the 60’s. Quite a drive up. No guardrails, 1st gear all the way for 7.5 miles.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Breezy to gusty at Mission Ridge Ski Area! (ya, it’s up there)

    http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/missionridge/now/

  14. ACARS data from flights heading in and out of Sea-Tac indicates the freezing level is already about 4,000 feet. Back to snow mode for the mountains.

    Hey, W7ENK, you should investigate trying to copy ACARS from flights at PDX. It’s not a hard digital mode to copy; if you have a receiver that can copy the air bands and a computer with an audio input port, the only other equipment you need is a patch cord. It’s a great way to get real-time sounding data; Alaska Air flights send weather observation data that is really easy to decode.

  15. The last couple of hours have been crazy out. Last I checked there were a handful of outages in my area of the “dome” (near the 7-11 & Max turn around on Park ave). The last recorded gust was 35 mph.

  16. One of the best FROPA I’ve seen in a long time.

  17. vernonia1 says:

    no weather for me here in Forest Grove. Here is the nearest one I could find

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AS436&table=1&banner=off

    41mph gust

  18. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Ominous…but will it develop??

  19. Jason Hougak says:

    Need to develope windar

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    Falling Limb Warning!!! Limbs have hit pump truck driving these country roads in Clackamas Country. It’s dangerous out there, take refuge inside next to blazing fire as soon as possible.
    35 at Timberline after high of 36. This rain should consolidate snow to help build a solid base.

  21. Jason Hougak says:

    It appears our radar is out for NW Oregon. Did it blow away… Lol😆

  22. It was hard to stay standing up at times when I walked to lunch today. 78mph gust recorded atop one of the construction cranes in downtown Seattle.

  23. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Hard to tell how fast the wind is, but it’s starting to rumble and howl where I live. Mostly, decent gusts that sometimes rattle the windows.

  24. Eugene Dave says:

    Say goodbye to the cascade snow pack. I don’t expect to see any resorts opening anytime soon with the exception of perhaps Timberline.

    • Snow levels are supposed to come crashing back down tonight then there will be another big dump of snow in the mountains.

      I do not expect the coming winter to be a replay of the last one.

    • sds says:

      Mt. Baker and Whistler are set to open Thursday and Baker has 35″ at the base and 70+” at the top even after 10 hours of rain. It has dropped below freezing now and is snowing again.

    • Eugene Dave says:

      Those resorts are also hundreds of miles north of Oregon. I actually think Bachelor might make it. They seemed to have escaped this warm rain relatively unscathed and have a decent base. Hoodoo, Willamette, Ski Bowl, etc are in poor shape for the time being.

  25. runrain says:

    Wow. Check out the Langley radar. A well defined, if narrow, line of red just now passing through Hoquiam. Just fascinating how long it is.

  26. runrain says:

    The Dome is going to be tested in about 20 minutes. It’s been battling off wave after wave of rain so far but looks like a formidable area of yellow is about to drop in from the northwest.

  27. Lots of whitecaps on Elliott Bay at the moment, and it’s starting to literally howl (whistle) at times outside on the 10th floor where I work.

  28. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “Be ready to move quickly if you eat at this restaurant tonight (Ivar’s Mukilteo Landing Restaurant)”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/11/wind-update.html

    • W7ENK says:

      I don’t get it. Was that a jab at their salmon chowder? They have excellent chowder!

    • “5 PM Crazy strong winds in the Strait and along the coast. Strong wind will spread into northern Puget Sound (it will be insane in Mukileto). The kind of situation that destroyed the Ivar’s Mukilteo Restaurant in 2002. If you hurry, you might be able to get a reservation for dinner there tonight.”

  29. W7ENK says:

    From what I understand, the wind component of this storm is largely turning out to be another bust, especially up in the Puget Sound Basin. Yesterday’s warnings were issued for winds 55-60 G75. By afternoon, that wind forecast had been lowered down to G60. Now this morning, they’re talking about winds peaking out this afternoon/evening barely above Advisory levels.

    As for us down here, just another breezy, wet, run-of-the-mill November day, nothing out of the ordinary.

  30. MasterNate says:

    Weather underground forecasting first valley snow of the season on Thanksgiving with 1-3″. FWIW Nice to see the trend.

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:KORLIBER1

    • They got nothin’ in the forecast for me but cold and dry, but it’s 10 days out so a lot could change between now and then. Still encouraging to see the models starting to trend in that direction.

  31. schmit44 says:

    11/16/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at Astoria Regional( 10 ft) & DW2545 Fossil(2709 ft)
    Low: 50 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:17 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 9 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (37/9 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.33″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    2.28″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    2.21″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    2.15″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)
    2.05″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.96″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  32. Boring Oregon says:

    The snow level has rapidly rose the last few hours and it’s now 36.5 at Govy. It’s almost going to be 60 tomorrow and on top of that it will rain a lot too. Will it be likely that all the snow at Govy is gone by tomorrow night? If so, that’d be a big setback.

    • Depends on how much there is. If there’s a foot or more it’s unlikely to vanish from just a days’ worth of mild rain. It will of course melt and consolidate, but will then refreeze into a solid base when it cools back down and starts snowing again. Which is forecast to happen.

      It’s normal for warm fronts to send the snow levels sky-high for a day or so in the winter. It’s not a problem unless the whole winter is either that way or dry and ridgy, like last year. And last year was so bad in that regard that a repeat so soon is highly unlikely.

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