Very Dramatic Weather Headlines This Week

For the 2nd time this week I’ve seen a very dramatic headline on the top banner of a well-known local newspaper website:

“APPROACHING STORM COULD RIVAL HALLOWEEN DELUGE”

The first was

“WINTER STORM WATCH: 2 FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED IN CASCADES”

and, for the 2nd time this week I think it’s pretty unlikely.

By the way, the Mt. Hood area picked up around 1-6″ snow out of that system the past 24 hours.  Models at that time were showing maybe 6-10″ max around Mt. Hood when the first headline came out.  Not sure what’s going on and how these headlines are showing up, but it appears a newspaper can actually top a TV newscast for hype!  That’s a new one.

So what’s really going on?

For the next two days a steady stream of moisture, a firehose-like atmospheric river, will be running into mainly the northern half of Washington.  That leaves us with just a few light showers through Friday night here in most of northern Oregon.

Then late Friday night and Saturday a cold front with its heavy rain band moves down through Oregon.  We definitely get a soaking, but not insanely wet like Halloween.  We saw rainfall rates of 1-1.5″ in just 2-3 hours with that storm. This time we’re talking maybe 1″ in 6 hours…like our RPM shows below.  Note the highlighted total during the day Saturday.

00zRPM_textoutput

An inch in 6 hours is a steady/heavy winter rain around here.  That’s wet!  But urban storm drains can handle .30″/hour just fine.

The latest GFS model is a bit less intense, about .70″ in those 6 hours ending at 4pm Sunday.

gfs_6hrprecip_ending4pmSat

The latest ECMWF model was similar to this…a very wet day, but nothing we don’t typically see in November.  Each model is a bit different and I’ve seen two models in the past 24 hours are a bit heavier.  Our evening RPM model run shows 1-1.50″ in the metro area, and far less in the mountains compared to what fell 2 weeks ago:

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

So to recap, as of 8pm Wednesday evening:

  • NO, THERE IS NO NEED TO BUILD AN ARK AND WE WON’T SEE A REPEAT OF HALLOWEEN
  • NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OREGON
  • YES, SATURDAY LOOKS VERY WET, AS IT SHOULD BE IN NOVEMBER
  • YES, THERE WILL BE SOME WATER PONDING ON SOME ROADS WITH LEAVES STILL FALLING
  • YES, BY CLICKING ON THOSE HEADLINES ABOVE I PROBABLY MADE A FEW CENTS FOR SOMEONE!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to Very Dramatic Weather Headlines This Week

  1. High Desert Mat says:

    And the 00z taketh away just like that!! So Mark Bergal, remember from now on that it was one run and la la land plus the 18z. It could come back but don’t count on it. We will get ours but maybe later than sooner. Goodnight all

  2. W7ENK says:

    Wow, it suddenly got really freakin’ windy!!

    Was this supposed to happen? I’ve been far too busy to pay much attention…

  3. Mark bergal says:

    The maps sure seem confident its going to get much colder out west. I guess the big question is where exactly that cold air will go, and how much reaches us.

  4. Mark bergal says:

    What are the implications for us, with an anomaly like this? Is this a true arctic blast or just a cold east wind event and what are the chances moisture gets funneled in?

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Mark, the implications are slim to nothing will happen with this. Like I posted before, it’s 300 hours out and the 18z. I believe it was an outlier with only 2-3 ensemble members showing this from what I recollect. Beautiful eye candy though, check out the 500mb and 300mb as well, its ideal for sure.

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    I really miss those days in winter where you get up in the morning and instead of it warming throughout the day, it slowly gets colder and colder due to an arctic front on our doorstep. Hasn’t happened in quite some time. I hope it does this winter. I want it to be 48 when I get up and watch the thermometer drop to low 20’s by sunset with an impending snowstorm and days long of arctic air. Then maybe a silver thaw after a week to top it off. Just sayin

  6. I can’t believe it’s already been a year since this east wind storm that struck Clark County!

    This is one image that really stuck out, this row of birch trees that blew down. They have shallow roots and were bare but the wind was no match for them.

    Here’s a link to the gallery. Icy photos from the gorge are coming early next week 🙂

    https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/November-2014-East-Wind-Storm/

  7. Chris s says:

    lol some serious eye candy on the 18z!!! Might as well book it now😁

    • High Desert Mat says:

      2 things: It’s 300 hours out, and its the 18z. Come on now, we all know better than this. Lol

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      It’s a sure thing….

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Boydo, I’ve been looking for that exact site and can’t seem to find it. Love this site. I keep losing it every spring when I kind of leave weather alone for awhile. Will you please pass on the link to me of this site? The ones I get when I look for it are just not the same lol.

  8. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    Holy snow around Thanksgiving on the 18z GFS.

  9. Mark bergal says:

    What is up with all the blue showing up in the neae future on thr gfs? What a difference from recent months? Is that an arctic blast or just a cold high to produce east winds?

  10. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone,or says:

    Looks good for a few inches here and there above 2000 feet for the next few days. What is this I am hearing about the 18z though?

    Mat, when should I head over? Passes will be dicey.

  11. High Desert Mat says:

    It’s only 3pm and it feels like its starting to get dark already. This is so sweet. Currently 51.4 after an overnight low of 23.5. Next week looks like the first interesting part of this winter.

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    Only about 40 days until the days start to get longer. Only about 86 days until the start of MLB Spring training. Only about 17 weeks until DST. I can’t wait for March. In the meantime Happy Thanksgiving and Merry Christmas everyone. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Good grief, I think the record is broken again. So only 80 days until the days are as long as they are now lol, that’s still pretty short for almost 3 months from now. Dan, check out the weather forums, you and Jesse will be very happy together.

    • gidrons says:

      Gawd not the weather forums, aka Jessie’s trolling chamber

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha!! “Jesse’s trolling chamber.”

      One of the many reasons I’ve never bothered signing up over there. I do scroll through it every once in a while now, especially if there’s interesting weather on the horizon, but I have no desire to join that circus. This one’s more than enough for me sometimes! lol

    • Sifton says:

      I start my countdown roughly in mid/late Oct Dan. Heck I even go as far as when the 1st day pitchers/catchers report! Until then buddy we have to read posts from weird cold & dark cave dwellers ……ALL HAIL THE SWEET WARM SUNSHINE!!!

    • timbers15 says:

      Pathetic. In the mean time, we enjoy the color of the fall and the much needed fresh air that came with. I am glad I don’t see any bugs and mosquitos alive. Ahhh, what a joy!

    • Vinnybob says:

      Pitchers and catchers report Feb 18.
      Yes

  13. KATU has ‘Halloween 2′ on tap for weekend weather’

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Meanwhile, the 12z RPM is only showing 1″ total from today through Sunday morning. The RPM performed remarkably well last time and was very consistent within a couple of days of the event.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Much of Saturday looks dry, at least through early-mid afternoon.

  14. GTS1K' says:

    Mark,

    I think you should ban all “hateful”, “hurtful” and “aggressive” comments and create a “safe space” here. The microaggs are becoming very threatening.

    Maybe call the State Police….

  15. GTS1K' says:

    Ommmmmmmmm………

    • GTS1K' says:

      I don’t mean to “trigger” anyone of any race, creed, nationality, religion, sexual orientation or lack thereof, geographical location or body type with that comment.

  16. runrain says:

    We need a good wishcast for that Tuesday system. Someone? Anyone?

  17. The hype is happening up here in Vancouver BC as well. The last I heard we were supposed to get 4-6 inches in the Greater Vancouver region in the next 24 hours. I don’t think so. Sure, some location up in the mountains could approach that, but not in the city. My wettest day in November was back in 2003 (3 inches). I expect maybe half that. Otherwise, this is very typical November weather. It’s our rainiest month of the year.

  18. Paul D says:

    Now if my trees would just get them leaves dropped so I can rake them up before our big snowstorm hits….. 🙂

  19. schmit44 says:

    11/11/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:59 at HEPP( 311 ft) & EW3638 Yachats(33 ft) & KK6DR Depoe Bay(66 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 47 at WYETH(102 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:26 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
    Low: 10 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6180 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    Lorella (48/13 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.15″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    1.10″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.00″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    0.93″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.90″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2690ft)

  20. muxpux (Longview) says:

    Is Longview in for another soaking? Or just another victim of bad model resolution?

  21. Mark bergal says:

    I read its a storm next week that could be big. Also, the gfs sure makes it look as if its going to get cold around here before Thanksgiving or is that overdone also?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Next Tuesday is very interesting. Big disagreement among models whether it’s a wet and warm westerly flow or if we’re on the cold side of the wet flow. Morning ECMWF showed 2-4 feet of snow for Mt. Hood later Monday-Wednesday! Evening GFS is warmer with more rain that snow in Cascades during that period. Stay tuned…

  22. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone, or says:

    The problem is, none of us, including you Mark, will not know the complete story on this system until it is done. Waves among these “river” events, affect it substantially. We can see an inch or 4 inches. Where the zone stalls is what no one really knows. We just can’t forecast it with great certainty. In 30 years we will know more.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      So every system should be advertised as a major storm that will wallop us? That’s crying wolf; we can do better than that.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Hey Josh, why dont you just put your money where your mouth is then? I can forecast between 1-4″ as well as anyone. Start putting your forecasts down for us all to read before you put Mark on the spot please. I can almost guarantee Mark would be a top forecaster anywhere he wants.

      Partly cloudy and 29 right now at home.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Uh-oh, I’m not going to be invited for family Thanksgiving!

  23. GTS1K; says:

    First? Gasp!

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