Cascade Snow Update

9:30pm…

Today was sure a chilly one across the area…the coldest day since February 1st in Portland.  In fact every other day in February was warmer than today; that shows you how freakishly warm February was!

PLOT_Highs_Metro

There is a cold front just offshore that is approaching this evening.  We’ll see a quick burst of rain in the valleys and snow in the Cascades overnight and early Wednesday morning.  The weekend “snowy” system in the Cascades definitely underperformed and we hope that doesn’t happen again this time around.  Here’s a look at what I’m looking for in the upcoming week around Mt. Hood.  2-6″ range for tonight is from 4,000′ on up to 6,000′.  This should be the first time we actually see roads turn white around Government Camp this season…later than normal.

MikaylaSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Beyond that Veteran’s Day looks more dry than wet to me and Thursday will be dry.  We have a warm and wet atmospheric-river type event coming up for Washington Friday and possibly part of Saturday.  We are on the southern edge of that so current rain forecasts through Friday evening are very light overhead…much like what we saw the Friday/Saturday around Halloween.

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

What I don’t expect (as of now) is a repeat of the huge downpours on Saturday.  The latest GFS is moving the cold front through here very quickly Saturday morning which would keep any flood issues in check.  The 18z had extremely heavy rain over us…maybe 2-3″ from 7am-7pm!  We’ll hope that solution doesn’t return.

Friday and Saturday we’ll see snow levels way too high for snow in the Cascades, but then much colder air arrives Sunday and Monday.  As you can see on the graphic above, that should mean more snow for the ski areas.

There are indications we go into a drier pattern about 10 days out on both the GFS and ECMWF.  With this upcoming snow ahead of that time MAYBE, just maybe, we’ll see some ski areas attempt an opening the weekend before Thanksgiving…that would be the 21st/22nd.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

30 Responses to Cascade Snow Update

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    53 at 1:00 PM which is as warm as it got all of yesterday so we should tack on 2 or 3 more degrees yet. Friday looks to be around 62 and mainly dry with a whole lot of rain to our rain to our North. Then we get the rain on Saturday. Just like Halloween. So far this Autumn no frosts and no sub 50 highs. But they are coming. Since August 29th the day the 1-10 GFS meteogram has predicted almost 80 inches of rain for our area. We have received a little more than 6 inches during that span. Go ride a model or a meteogram at your own risk. Peace.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Why is the O-Rag calling for a Hallowe’en redux this weekend?? o_O



    Portland forecast: Approaching weekend storm could rival Halloween deluge

    http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/11/portland_forecast_approaching.html

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      They also called for 2′ of snow on Mt Hood earlier this week. Talk about sensationalism.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That’s ridiculous. To take a once every five year event (just guessing) and say it’ll be worse is pretty bad

    • W7ENK says:

      Ah, see, now they’ve added a bit:

      “The heaviest rain, however, will target areas north of the Columbia River where there’s a good chance for localized flooding on some of the rivers and streams prone to react to heavy rain and snowmelt in the Cascade foothills and coastal mountains.”

      That wasn’t in the original article, but it’s still not accurate!
      1) There’s no low-elevation snow to melt, and
      2) They’re not accounting for low reservoirs and (still somewhat) parched water table.

      Sensationalism indeed, hence the name “O-Rag.”

  3. Mark bergal says:

    Give it a couple of weeks. Something will likely be brewing, or, at the least, more rain.

  4. gidrons says:

    It’s that time of year when I check the models every morning, looking for a hint of a snow storm or an arctic front. It will be nice when there’s actually something to track.

  5. With the models indicating both drier and cooler than normal in the week or two before Thanksgiving, wouldn’t this indicate that a stretch of fog, inversions, and “fake cold” is a distinct possibility?

  6. Farmer Ted says:

    Wind picked up around 2 AM as the front came in, of course the power went out for a couple of hours (seems like we always loose power out here). Then a pleasant rainfall. Cheers.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Temps also rose about 10 degrees from earlier in the night.

    • W7ENK says:

      Seattle area?

      Not a breath of wind in the Portland area last night.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Gusty wind started about 11 PM last night here. Settled down by ~12:30 AM to just rain. Must be frightening to have all that “loose” power around – especially at night.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      No W7KKK, believe it or not you are not the weather god of Portlandia, probably not even the weather dog, but anyway yes this was out in rural Oregon City where the wind did pick up quite a bit, some call it localized micro climates. You probably should try and get some sleep and maybe a life so you are not try to monitor all the weather in Portland, that’s just too much for a little “weather Gnome” like you.

    • GTS1K; says:

      “W7KKK”????? WTF, Ted? Take a pill – or whatever you do to chill….

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, overreact much? Okay then…

      First of all, I sleep with a window open, directly over my head. As a fairly light sleeper, I hear things like heavy rain, thunder, cats, raccoons, coyotes, prowling tweakers, wind gusts, etc… which all have a tendency to wake me up. Funny you should mention my level of sleep, I actually got a really good sleep last night, because nothing woke me up. No coyotes, no tweakers, no heavy rain, and no wind. Looking at my station, I see my that peak wind gust for today was 3.4 MPH from the SW at around 3am. Granted, I’m in a wind sheltered area, unless of course it’s a true South wind. Pardon me for not getting any wind last night, you can blame The Dome, I guess.

      Secondly, RE: Your “KKK” reference with regard to my handle — That was absolutely uncalled for and seriously out of line. Please, promptly go F’k yourself. You have absolutely no idea who I am or what I stand for. Perhaps I’m African American? Do you know, one way or the other, for sure?? I think you have a problem, Ted.

      So it got windy at your place, on a farm, up on a hill, exposed to the South, whatever the heII. So I didn’t get any wind at my place, in a valley, blocked to the SW by a ridgeline, inside The Dome… so what’s new? Who f’king cares, really?!? C’mon…

      Go milk a cow and lighten up, Francis!!

    • GTS1K; says:

      And, right on cue, Erik takes the bait and over-overreacts…

      …who’d a thunk it?

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m a big proponent of “Eye for an eye”.

      Don’t judge me.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Let the record show…Erik is very white. Like Baltic country white

    • GTS1K' says:

      I judge whomever I choose, Pikachu, and I choose you. The dude is obviously unbalanced – why play his game?

    • Mark bergal says:

      Arent we here to discuss the weather? Is drama and personal attacks really necessary..For heavens sake, there is a monster el nino brewing out there.

  7. The wind DID pick up last night, but just enough to bring the temperature no higher than 47F here. (was only 44F in the afternoon). Well, tomorrow we’ll be in the thick of the storm whiile you folks in Portland get just light rain.

  8. schmit44 says:

    11/10/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:59 at SEVEN MILE CREEK( 438 ft) & Brookings (US 10(149 ft) & CW9821 Gleneden(49 ft)
    Low: 44 at CW5356 South Bea(66 ft) & Troutdale(120 ft) & Troutdale (I-84(29 ft) & EW1914 Portland(151 ft) & Glen Jackson Bri(180 ft) & Portland-Troutda(36 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:23 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 11 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & ROGGER MEADOW AM (6360 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7400 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    Burns Municipal (48/13 ) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.33″ at EW4395 Milton Fr(3454ft)
    0.31″ at CW7508 Enterpris(3848ft)
    0.25″ at EW5447 Eagle Poi(1342ft)
    0.23″ at Ontario Municipa(2188ft)
    0.23″ at DW4535 Cannon Be(23ft)
    0.23″ at ROBERTS BUTTE(4263ft)

  9. Mark Nelsen says:

    Once we get this far into the “low-sun” season, even warm temperatures will melt very little snow. The only real snow-killer between now and mid February is rain.

  10. Mark bergal says:

    Will that dry pattern be a mild one or chilly one? The latter would keep the snow around me thinks.

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