Coldest Night of the Season So Far For Tonight

How exciting, for the first time in over a month we actually had a below average day!  The high of 57 was normal, but the low of 40 at PDX was below normal.  This was the first below average day since October 2nd.

MarkTempsColdDay

Note that the west metro area cleared out, allowing temps to drop well into the 30s last night while the east side under cloud cover was in the 40s.

PLOT_Lows_Metro

Different story tonight with mainly clear skies, light wind, drier air, and a chilly airmass.  That should allow all of us to drop into the 30s with a killing frost in the coldest outlying areas.  Here’s my forecast for low temps:

FCST_Tonight_Metro

Frost is overdue this year…which seems reasonable after the warmest October on record.

Looking ahead, a weak system moves through our area Thursday dropping less than .25″ rain and just a few inches snow in the mountains.  Then a colder/stronger system for Sunday/Monday as an upper-level trough drops in for a visit.  So probably a foot of snow on the higher parts of Timberline and Mt. Hood Meadows over the next week:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Now the ECMWF showed any later systems next week splitting and heading into California, implying that days 7-10 will be mainly dry around here…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Coldest Night of the Season So Far For Tonight

  1. schmit44 says:

    11/6/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:67 at HEPP( 311 ft) & Hood River(571 ft) & CW4896 Waltervil(574 ft) & DW1439 Eugene(810 ft) & Troutdale(120 ft)
    Low: 52 at OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft) & AA7OA Astoria(240 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (54/12) (4734 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.47″ at EW1556 Maupin(1910ft)
    0.47″ at DW6879 Union(2792ft)

  2. Boring Oregon says:

    Mt.Hood looks very Caucasian today.

  3. Garron (1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro airport) says:

    Man that chem trail sunset is just amazing tonight! Still got windows open. Another 60 + degree day, (64 at PDX) to add to an already broken record of warmth this year. Simply awesome in my book! Now, let it snow…

  4. Paul D says:

    Hey grass in my yard: I command you to stop growing!!!!!

    Thank you for your support.

    • W7ENK says:

      I still have tomatoes on.

      In 2008, I had tomatoes on until the first week of December.
      Second week of December, everything changed…

  5. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    I’m liking the trend on both the GFS and the EURO. It looks like cool strong onshore flow could be the dominating pattern for the next couple of weeks. Not sure if the pattern lasts a long time, but it’s nice when we can get it. Probably some decent mountain snows the over the next 10 days. What I don’t see (and I’m glad I don’t): a big ridge over us or a pathetic split flow. Nice cool day today, fall/winter is definitely here now. 🙂

    link to the EURO showing a rather strong looking jet stream hitting the NW with cooler temps:
    http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20America&step=0&relative_archive_date=2015011612&parameter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa

    • Mark bergal says:

      Agreed. I think this cold season will be much better than last, el nino or not. I just have a feeling this nino has a somewhat different agenda.

    • Garron (1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro airport) says:

      Ben, thanks again for that link! And, yes that seems to be a pretty good pattern for us for winter, only time will tell how it holds up. Great start for the mountains for sure!

  6. Vancouver BC is in for a lot of rain over the next 3 days. Hopefully that means more snow up on the mountains.

  7. schmit44 says:

    11/5/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at BANDON( 79 ft) & Bullards Bridge(23 ft) & AGNESS2(247 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 52 at WYETH(102 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 36 degrees
    Lorella (51/15 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.89″ at DW6879 Union(2792ft)
    0.81″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  8. leer` Geddy says:

    Wow, the first four days of November in Seattle has been below normal for once I just hope we don’t make up for it with 70 degree weather in Dec and Jan, lol. then again I wouldn’t be surprised given the warm African climate we been in for the last two years.

  9. W7ENK says:

    Sadly, today’s forecast for 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain turned into only 0.02″ when all was said and done. With the exception of last weekend, par for the course, I guess…

  10. Farmer Ted says:

    It’s been great fall weather so far, a nice super soaker for the Halloween weekend, and plenty of breaks to be out enjoying the glorious weather. What a beautiful planet, just hope you don’t ruin it.

  11. leer` Geddy says:

    Last night Euro weeklies looks like a classic El nino pattern setting up with a strong undercut jet into southern stats and higher then norm heights over us after nextweek from what I see, but I could be wrong I hope.

  12. leer` Geddy says:

    Latest member are trending warmer is it possible to have a third El nino year in a row for 16/17 anyone??. i really hope, yuk.
    notnothttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

  13. schmit44 says:

    11/4/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:63 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & Brookings (US 10(149 ft)
    Low: 47 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 9 at Burns Municipal (4144 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    Burns Municipal (47/9) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.35″ at EW4395 Milton Fr(3454ft)
    0.24″ at Meacham(3724ft)

  14. Mark bergal says:

    We achieved two days below normal, a relative marathon as of late. We also had our first frost several days before the typical first one. With the pattern remaining on the cool side in upcoming days, who knows what other feats will be conquered.

  15. Farmer Ted says:

    Gee whiz, can’t find anything to bellyache about this evening. Where’s Jas?

  16. vernonia1 says:

    coming here to the weather knowledge base to ask a question. Is there a place to see the past weather for Mesa, AZ? Maybe over a yr or two? Thanks all

  17. Garron (1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro airport) says:

    It was nice and frosty out this morning at my house, 31 at KHIO. Really felt like a nice kick off to the holiday season.

  18. steve says:

    That polar bear looks very warm lol

  19. Only got down to 37 at my place because clouds moved in. By morning it was in the forties.

  20. runrain says:

    When a split flow pattern resembles that of a bull’s horns, it’s called (wait for it…) Bullsplit. 🙂

  21. W7ENK says:

    46.6F for Monday night’s low.

    34.1F this morning.

    It was almost… ALMOST frosty in my neighborhood, but I didn’t see any.

  22. Paul D says:

    Below normal! Music to my ears 🙂

  23. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    31.1 in Battle Ground. Over the last 5 years, my average first frost is November 3rd, so this is right on cue.

    This was the second longest growing season when going from freeze to freeze at 203 days. The longest was last year at 226 days.

    In addition, this year had 96 days between the first and last 90 degree day, the longest in my 5 years out here.

  24. My coldest night of the season was the night before(36.8F) this one. Too bad the clouds moved in shortly after midnight here, otherwise we would have nearly made it down to 32F.

  25. Jason Hougak says:

    MAGNIFICENT MOUNT HOOD😀👍👍

  26. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    32.5 degrees

  27. schmit44 says:

    11/3/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:60 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft) & EW6892 Medford(1414 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER B(586 ft)
    Low: 48 at ROWEWS(104 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at Rim(7050 ft) & Mt Hood Meadows(6540 ft)
    Low: 20 at FISH CREEK (7660 ft ) & MT. HOWARD (7910 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    US26 at Sunset R (58/33 ) (1365 ft )
    DW9634 Tygh Vall (54/29) (984 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.53″ at TROUT CREEK(2268ft)
    0.34″ at DW2789 Milton Fr(1358ft)
    0.33″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)

  28. BlazerFan32 says:

    Hi Mark

    I know it isn’t near the Portland area but here in Southeast Tacoma I am down to 36 degrees at 9:21 PM. I think there is a shot at getting the first freeze here this year. Surprisingly there was nothing near that low here in my backyard in October. I usually get one or two days even in a warm October.

    • leer` Geddy says:

      Low clouds and fog developing tonight should prevent us getting our first freeze here in Puget sound.

    • BlazerFan32 says:

      I live well away from the water and Jeff Renner at KING TV says my area will be close to freezing if not freezing. He did also say that freezing temperatures were likely to happen from Tacoma southward too. I am currently at 35 degrees as of 10:32 PM in Southeast Tacoma…Actually the suburbs of Tacoma Northwest of the South Hill area.

  29. jimbo says:

    Hmmm – CFS long range has artic air down from Canada over northwest u.s. in about 2 weeks from now. 2nd day In row showing that. Am I grasping or what?

    • Mark bergal says:

      could you share the map with us that shows the arctic outbreak? Not totally surprised if it does happen. Dont think this nino is going to be a tame animal

    • jimbo says:

      CFS 10-40 long range outlook is on marks weather page

    • The first of many such outliers which will of course fail to materialize, doubtless. Looks like winter model riding season has begun!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Hey Jimbo the Ducks have a better chance of winning the Pac 12 North than these long range charts have of being right. Usually the cold air will hit Montana and just give us some cool dry Coho winds. Arctic outbreaks for us in November are rare. In El Nino years rarer still. That;s not to say it won’t happen only that it is unlikely to happen. Peace.

    • It happened last year. Why not a second year in a row?

    • W7ENK says:

      Things never happen two years in a row around here, ya know, like warmest summer ever and whatnot§

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Hot weather is a lot more common than cold weather around here. Almost every year we have a several day long heat wave. We even had them in 2010 and 2011. But we can go 3 or more years in a row without an Arctic outbreak. We know we just had 3 hot Summers in a row. When was the last time we had two cold Winters in a row? Peace.

      • Mark bergal says:

        It may not be an arctic ourbreak but its pretty chilly now. Even with the heat of the past two summers, the cool days far surpass the warm ones. It also seems to me, we get cold spells practically each year, even if they arent from the north pole. I would never advertise our region as a place with more hot weather than cold.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’d have to look up for winters, but oddly enough those two years you mentioned had Summers that were back-to-back cool anomalies.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      You miss my point. We do have more cool weather than hot, true. But cool weather does not get you snow. For that you need cold weather. And cold weather especially in November and also in an El Nino year is very uncommon. And even in cool Summers we almost always have some hot weather. However we don’t always have cold weather in our Winters. Sorry if that bothers you. I know you want snow. But the odds for snow in any one year are not good. With an El Nino even less so. And with the blob off our coast I would say possible but very unlikely. But for your sake I hope you get some snow. Peace,

      • Mark bergal says:

        I wasnt talking about snow. Yes it would be nice around Christmas. but otherwise it mostly just gives me a snowday or two. I was just commenting we are known for our rain and gray, and not extreme cold or snow.

  30. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone, or says:

    Every time I hear the word split I get angry. We are supposed to be “thee” entrance of the jet stream to the united states! California can fall into the pacific. At least they will stop coming.

  31. leer` Geddy says:

    High clouds coming in tonight could keep temps a little warmer then forecasted.

  32. Mark bergal says:

    Still dont think the splitty el nino autographed pattern is a mainstay already. Skeptical this will be the case, especially so early in the season. Curious what the models indicate looking 4 weeks ahead.

  33. David B. says:

    39 here on Bainbridge Island already tonight, first sub-40 reading for me of the season.

    Oh, and … first!

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