You just lived through the two warmest Octobers ever recorded in Portland. Last year was our warmest ever and technically this year was SLIGHTLY warmer. Let me explain.
When you add up all the highs and lows (31 of each, 62 total) for each month you get this:
October 2014 3724
October 2015 3725
Then divide each by 62 (the number of days):
October 2014 60.065 degrees
October 2015 60.081 degrees
This year was .0165 degrees warmer…yes, just 1-2 hundredths of a degree warmer.
Think about it you weather geeks, if just ONE high or low would have been ONE degree cooler this October, it would have been a perfect tie…wow.
It’s possible the NWS rounds up to the nearest tenth; if so, both years will just be 60.1 degrees and a tie.
Either way, two historically warm Octobers in a row.
November has started a bit cooler and maps look relatively cool over the next 7-10 days. The ECMWF 12z ensemble chart:
Note that most of the next 10 days the temperature there at 5,000′ is below normal for early November…interesting. Add in precipitation forecast by both the ECMWF/GFS and one can conclude we COULD see an early start to the ski season. All we need is two feet of snow, a bunch of parking lot snow piled up and there you go! One or two lifts are operating and the ski season has begun! I remember in the old days (10 years ago) it seemed like they would wait for a bit more snow so more lifts could be open all at once. But obviously there is enough pent-up demand that managers want to get those slopes open quickly. Good for them and good for you if you’re into those winter snow sports! I we get lucky possibly the weekend of the 13th/14th? We’ll see.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen