There is HOPE for Halloween Evening! Dry For Some

A glimmer of good news is starting to emerge from our numerical weather models for Halloween evening!

As far as I recall, we have not had a “washout” (pouring rain) during the critical Trick-or-Treat time since at least 2001.  That’s when I started taking my kids; in fact I never went candy collecting with the kids in anything other than a sprinkle.  I do remember a washout with strong wind and rain in 1994 and then it turned to snow in Sandy behind the front that year.

All that really matters is the 5pm to 8pm period that evening.  For anyone under age 10 it’s pretty much over by that time.  So it’s not like we need the whole day dry.

A cold front will be traversing north to south across our viewing area from afternoon through the evening.  Under the front it’ll be pouring anywhere from the Cascades west.  What has changed is that models seem to be speeding up the movement a bit, which means the steady/heavy rain will likely come to an abrupt end first up north and eventually late in the evening farther south.

Take a look at the 12z ECMWF 6 hour rain forecast from 11am to 5pm Saturday:

ecm_11ato5p

That means the total ENDING at 5pm.  This says the heaviest rain is just arriving in the metro area around 4-5pm.  Now the 5pm-11pm total:

ecm_5pto11p

During that period a lot of rain from Portland to Albany (and along the north-central coastline).  But notice there is very little rain from about Tillamook north along the coast and north of Portland.  The current run of this model says the little kids will be in great shape on the far north coast and north of the metro area; wet elsewhere.  The previous run of this same model was a bit farther north (by about 20 miles), so the trend is a bit faster…very good.

How about another model…the GFS?  Even better news.  Here’s the 5pm-11pm rainfall:

gfs_5pto11p

Look at that!  Pretty much dry from Pacific City north along the coast and north of Woodburn along I-5.  This run says the main rain has finished by 5pm, especially west and north metro areas.  Very good.

The UW’s model (WRF-GFS), which is based of the GFS model shows something similar:

wrf_5to8pm

Mainly dry once the main cold frontal band passes by overhead.

To summarize:

If model trends continue, kids in the metro area could again escape with a mainly dry Halloween or at least just showers.  There is a better chance for dry conditions the farther north you go.  Salem and Albany still look wet for now.

It’s still 3 days away so it’ll be perfectly normal to see some movement in that main rain band forecast as we get closer.

Stay tuned!

MarkPromoHalloween

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

41 Responses to There is HOPE for Halloween Evening! Dry For Some

  1. Shannon says:

    I thought I heard that the rain was going to end by 5 pm on Halloween night now. What happen now Mark Nelsen?

  2. W7ENK says:

    C’mon Dave, really?? You should know better than that… I know you read Mark’s blog, he just explained this in his last post!

    :facepalm:

    • Farmer Ted says:

      lighten up dude, you really think you are the weather police, just let it go and see what happens, I’d probably puke if I actually ever met you.

    • Boring Oregon(600') says:

      Harsh…
      Besides that… what a great time to pause his face.

    • runrain says:

      Dave really is kind of lacking in weather knowledge, I think. He’s good at one thing, though: using a huge amount of words to say virtually nothing.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Hmmmm, Ted needs a lesson in weather policing I think. He’s nagging someone for policing yet he’s policing. Not sure if he’s being serious or not since alot of his posts come from left field, but Cro-Magnon comes to mind??

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      knuckle dragger?

    • W7ENK says:

      Ted, you’re not very good with sarcasm, are you…

      FFS man, I’m not the one who needs to lighten up!

      lololol

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya, heavy-handed for sure Ted.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    I like that BAD written across the foothills. Our small community has a barn party for Halloween that has games and treats. The stormy weather just adds to the excitement. Really have been enjoying this fantastic fall weather. Kicking up mud in the pump truck, digging trenches in softer ground, wearing rain gear, having to use work lights… Now just waiting on the snow. Replaced the pump at Thunderhead Lodge in Govy today. The businesses on the mountain really need a good snow season. Have a fun safe Halloween. I’d dress as snow for Halloween but I really don’t like being a flake!

  4. runrain says:

    Looks like the Phoenix area is going to fall into the upper 60’s for the first time next week. I’ll bet their looking forward to that. Also noticing a red flag warning tomorrow for the LA mountains with the Santa Anas kicking in. Interesting weather coming up for the West Coast!

  5. Paul D says:

    Looking forward to my youngest daughter not wanting to go trick or treating anymore. This year she’s less interested. Hopefully next year she won’t want to.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yeah, but then 2 or 3 years later you kinda miss it! Or at least that’s what I’m thinking this year.

    • Sifton says:

      Wow! Hates the sun AND taking his own kid out for a few minutes 1 last time in her life?!? The ‘D’ must stand for downer…

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      I don’t have kids, so I miss out on all the free candy. But there’s always the November first candy sales I guess

  6. Brian Schmit says:

    10/28/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at CW6811 Grants Pa( 947 ft)
    Low: 57 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:38 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 24 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    CW9803 Elgin (57/29 ) (2772 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.87″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    1.73″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    1.27″ at Mt Hood Meadows(5380ft)
    1.27″ at GOODWIN PEAK(1800ft)
    1.10″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370ft)
    1.09″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    1.08″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.08″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.03″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  7. More often than not, we’ve had a dry Halloween here. In fact, some of our best evenings in october have come on the 31st! That said, we did have a couple of wash outs: Most notably in 1981 (2.8 inches) and more recently in 2012 with heavy showers in the evening. I expect 2015’s Halloween to be similar to 2012.

  8. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    Fun fact… Out of 28 days in October, 1 has had an average daily temperature below normal. It will end up as 1 out of 31. Now imagine the opposite.

  9. As says:

    Really nice post! I have a young trick or treater who is very excited about Saturday. I showed this to her and she was fascinated (she is very into science). Thanks so much for your updates. 🙂

  10. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    I think Jesse is correct and I also think that mark, as do we, has a 50/50 shot of knowing when the rain will end.

    Satellite imagery sure looks like a northern warm front developing which means we will be lucky to get this thing out of here quickly with the current jet stream. Similar patterns hang these things up further north based on what I’ve seen since I was a little kid. 30 years.

  11. () says:

    I want a complete washout. I’m too lazy to answer the door to trick or treaters.

    • runrain says:

      Plus, more candy to eat for us! Actually, I take my leftovers to the office. I don’t trust myself to leave it in the house too long! We typically get 100-150 trick or treaters in Happy Valley. Boring and Damascus send all their farm kids to us!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      There aint no dern neighborhoods here for the kids to go to!

  12. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Wet and dry might be a little more fairly worded than bad and dry. Wet doesn’t necessarily mean bad considering the drought year we have been having.

    Or is this the beginning of Mark simply replacing the word “wet” with “bad” in his forecasts? I wouldn’t be entirely surprised considering how strong his bias has grown lately. 😉

  13. Boring Oregon says:

    Just know that I WILL be thinking of you when I’m walking in the cold and rain and that I WILL complain.

  14. Mark Nelsen says:

    You mean the hand drawn BAD and DRIER? Some of my best artwork yet

  15. W7ENK says:

    Nice graphics! Did those come standard from WSI, or is that an add-on??

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