Strong Wind Gorge Now, Then This Afternoon In Valley

8am Sunday…

Looks like some real windy fall weather coming up today.  I’m not working, but with morning coffee I see two things going on:

  1.  Strongest east wind of the season so far is howling through the Gorge.  Over 8 millibars pressure gradient is “cold season worthy”.  It’s flowing from high pressure east of the Cascades to an approaching surface low off the central Oregon coastline.  Peak gusts likely 60-70 at Vista House and 50-60 in the windier areas around Cape Horn and Corbett through the morning hours.  Then it’ll go calm as a south wind arrives around noon or so.  Which leads us to…
  2. Gusty south wind for all of us this afternoon.  South wind gusts 25-40 mph will likely cause a few outages 3-7pm in the metro area and the valley.

A surface low is cozying up against the coast this morning and moves into western Washington this evening.  Note the mid-afternoon (2pm) surface map from the 12z NAM (latest model available).  You can see the pressure gradient turning southerly south of Salem at that time

slp.09.0000

Then at 7pm the low is weakening, but in a perfect position to cause a rush of southerly wind up (technically down) the valley

slp.14.0000

Not a big windstorm by any means, but enough to remind us November is only a week away!  In fact I noticed the cross section from the WRF-GFS last night has that “winter look”.

kpdx.th

By that I mean strong easterly flow, then southerly flow, then back to strong easterly again Tuesday.  My son has his last high school soccer game in Corbett Tuesday afternoon…looks like that ball is going to have a hard time getting into the goal when they are kicking into the east end!

Rain will be arriving for most of us soon, enjoy that and the refreshing fall breezes this afternoon.  Oh, and possibly a thunderstorm with the convective showers mid-late afternoon as well.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

29 Responses to Strong Wind Gorge Now, Then This Afternoon In Valley

  1. Brian Schmit says:

    10/25/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:73 at UNION(2708 ft)
    Low: 58 at Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at Lagoon(6370 ft) & Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
    Low: 25 at COLGATE (3231 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    CW9027 Ukiah (69/29 ) (3415 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.27″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.96″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.84″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    1.80″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    1.63″ at CANNIBAL MOUNTAI(1939ft)
    1.60″ at SEINE CREEK(2060ft)
    1.60″ at MILLER WOODS(420ft)
    1.57″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)

  2. It appears as if we’re finally getting the rain that’s been in Washington state today. The radar screen was showing a mass of fairly heavy precipitation slowly moving northward through the afternoon and evening. Just how much we’ll actually get though is a big guess. We’ve had less than a tenth of an inch in total since the 13th.

  3. leer` Geddy says:

    Close but not close enough i guess it’s still to early for Mt snow in our area yet.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mso&wwa=winter weather advisory

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Woke up this morning to thunder at 3:00 AM. Had .52 of rain today along with 37mph South winds. The weather really sucked today. GFS meteogram has 6.25 inches of rain the next ten days. They ought to do do Vegas, always room for a good comedy act down there. What I got out of the weather conference on Saturday was a very likely warm and dry Winter. But then we already knew that. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat (Redmond Or.) says:

      If you had paid attention to the last few weeks of blog postings from Mark, you’d see that on “average” we would see almost near normal rainfall and above average temps with the upper terrain of the mountain getting near normal snowfall. I know for this area in a strong el Nino Mt. Bachelor gets average snowfall. Same with Bend etc. Most likely has to do with the southern jet to our south and having lows just close enough for wrap around moisture over here on the east slopes of the cascades. As far as I’m concerned its a crap shoot this winter with it being mainly slightly above average temp wise and normal precip. Maybe an arctic blast or two but generally warmer. Probably lots of fake cold with nasty inversions persisting for days. Just my thoughts. Anyone else with those ideas?

    • Mike says:

      looks like things are setting up for a wind storm type winter with all the dramatic low pressure spins going on in the pacific.

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    0.35″ so far in Battle Ground. Peak wind of 25 mph @ 3:57 PM

  6. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    .55″ at PDX. 1/2 of the daily record and more than what we’ve received the entire month. Nice little system, finally.

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Today’s rain is a welcome sight – my yard is happily soaking it up. 0.56″ since 9AM.

    • High Desert Mat (Redmond Or.) says:

      Nice amount Dave. Liking that dry season may finally be over. Been hovering in low 40’s most of the day so far before last hour. Now at 50

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Up to 0.73″ now. I wasn’t expecting this much rain, but I’ll gladly take it. Certainly some blown forecasts today… (can you hear me, NWS?)

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      A “Wet Sunday” wasn’t what you were expecting? I think the weekend was well advertised as dry with temps around 70 Saturday and rainy/cool on Sunday. Or did NWS say something different?

    • Josh "the snowman" Gladstone, or says:

      I think the forecast was dead on. Didn’t look like much this morning when I woke up but the visible satellite sure brightened up around 11-12 and isotrenpic lift ruled the day.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      I was expecting a wet day today, but more on the order of .25″ based on the NWS forecast for my location:

      This afternoon Rain. High near 58. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

      I suppose an accumulation of .73″ is within the margin of error. Exact rainfall amounts are hard to predict… and some showers were “training” for a while earlier this afternoon.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I didn’t see those big rain accumulations southwest side of metro either. 1.50″ or more. Yes, that’s definitely more than expected. Great way to start the rainy season though!

  8. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    South winds are definitely picking up in the southern valley for sure. Eugene and Corvallis are in the 30mph+ gust range and Salem’s winds are starting to pick up from the south.

  9. JohnD says:

    Would anyone be willing to summarize the presenters input at yesterday’s OMSI winter weather conference? Normally I attend but we had to be out of town on Saturday.
    Thank you.

    • Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

      I think everyone is out enjoying the rain, John. Nice gully washer out there at the moment. Pretty nice bend moving through right now. Sure feels clean and crisp outside.

    • Developpdx@aol.com says:

      I would love to hear it too. I am assuming everyone said warm and dry or warm and wet with no snow or arctic air.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Everyone is more/less sticking to the El Nino script. Either warm and drier than normal or warm and normal precip.

  10. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    Looks like some nice lift with this mornings feature. Cloud tops are cooling offshore. Could see a cold core funnel this afternoon.

    Hey Mark? Are we going to get the winter weather meeting posted somewhere since I wasn’t able to go?

  11. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    As long as we get rain I’m happy! The garden was oddly dry yesterday when I was working in it. I’m depending on that rain to water what I did!

  12. Mark bergal says:

    Could a dramatic change be on the horizon?

  13. JJ78259 says:

    First

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