A Record Warm October Again? Probably Not, but Close

Since we now have only 9 days left in the month, I figure it’s time to take a look and see how we are running compared to last October.  You know, the warmest on record here in Portland.

201410

In fact it was the warmest on record in all of Western Washington and most of Western Oregon.  There’s NO WAY we would do that two years in a row…right?  Well, it’s going to be close but I think it’s most likely this will go down as the 2nd warmest.

So far the entire West is running well above normal this month with the core of the warm anomaly over the Intermountain region and Rockies.

october_anomaly

Last year PDX had an average October temperature of 60.1 degrees.  Again, that was the warmest October on record at PDX.

SO FAR (through the 22nd) this month is running at 61.5 degrees; that’s 1.4 degrees warmer than last year’s record!

Seems like a slam dunk right?  Well, that’s with the coolest 9 days of the month to go.  Or at least the average is coolest at the end of the month.  I see two possibilities

1. If we were to have 9 perfectly normal days to end the month

Temperature would be 58.6 degrees…A tie for 2nd warmest on record.

2. If our 7 Day Forecast is correct plus I add two “normal” days at the end

Temperature would be 59.8 degrees…2nd warmest on record

Considering my forecast if anything seems a little warm (warm-biased) I think it’s unlikely that we’re even warmer than that.

7 Day

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

51 Responses to A Record Warm October Again? Probably Not, but Close

  1. Farmer Ted says:

    I sure like this time of the year regardless of all the chatter about el vino, del torro or whatever the current catch phrase is, it’s just the fact that I don’t know what kind of a winter that’s going to happen, and I love the uncertainty and the anticipation, pure joy!

  2. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    Who all went to OMSI today? Are we going to have it on video at some point on here?

  3. Thank goodness Hurricane Patricia didn’t make as much destruction as it was expected to. A miracle?

  4. 38F this morning at 8am- my coldest temperature since April 15th. However, we probably won’t see our first freezing minimum until November.

  5. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone, or says:

    Looks like mat and I aren’t going to make the OMSI conference. I will see if my girl wants to go with me.

  6. longbeachrob says:

    I was kind of liking all the nice weather here at the coast

  7. Joshua says:

    Did anybody look at the 12z GFS Operational? Hahaha. 7” of rain over the next 16 days.

  8. W7ENK says:

    This October has been MUCH warmer than last — up to this point — at my location.

    Here’s a comparison from my records:

    High / Low / Mean / Rainfall

    Bear in mind, this does not include data since this last Monday, so I have no idea how the last 3 days will factor into this (probably not much change) but that aside, temperatures across the board are running higher by about 2-1/2 degrees. What I find more startling is this year’s serious lack of rainfall.

    Unless things change dramatically in the next week…

    • oldwxwatcher says:

      At my location (east Portland) on this date last year the monthly average temperature was 61.1°. This year it is 60.9. This morning’s low of 37.9° will no doubt bump it a bit lower. In October 2014 the lowest it got here was 42.3°.

    • W7ENK says:

      FWIW, it got down to 39.7 at my place overnight. That will definitely pull the average low down some, but like I said, the data I posted is missing the last three days, so I have no idea how it will all factor in.

      I’m glad I brought my Tabasco plant back inside last night!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      This years avg through the 22nd is 60.9. It will likely finish at just about 60.0 which is just shy of last year. But first or second, to have two such warm Octobers in a row is amazing. 38 this morning. Peace.

  9. Paul D says:

    I’m glad we’re down to where the record highs are in the low 70’s. Sure beats those 90’s. It’s a really nice time of year.

  10. Joshua says:

    Hey Mark, how come you are only calling for light showers this Sunday? The GFS and RPM are pretty bullish about a good soaking. The GFS has been very consistent with this for days.

  11. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    34.5 at my place in Battle Ground this morning…coldest since April 26th.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

  12. Tonight I could see my first minimum temperature below 40F, for the season. That is, if it stays clear.

  13. DBurnett says:

    Good lord, Hurricane Patricia, overnight, became the most intense tropical cyclone every observed in the western hemisphere with 200 mph 1-min sustained winds and a minimum pressure of 880 mb!!!! Less than 48 hours ago, it was just a tropical depression.

    • leer` Geddy says:

      I fear were in for a record boring fall/winter here in the pnw since it’s one extreme to another.

    • DBurnett says:

      @leer Geddy So do I. During 2011-2012, I was actually wishing that we would have our hottest summer ever, and after experiencing it… I didn’t enjoy it.

      Now I’m concerned what implications another record warm winter may have for the snowpack.

    • W7ENK says:

      Devastating.

      That’s in reference to both Hurricane Pat and the impact of another record warm winter on our mountain snowpack.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Thar she blows!

  14. schmit44 says:

    10/22/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:79 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 56 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 21 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    Lorella (70/23 ) (4160 ft )

  15. leer` Geddy says:

    This is payback for that “cold” September we had, lol

  16. G. Carich says:

    I bet that 2015 PDX breaks 2014. It doesn’t cool off at night anymore. You’re calling low 40’sF as “chilly.” That’s norm! Plus, 70F max for Halloween!?

    I hope I’m wrong.

  17. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Already down to 42 here in Battle Ground

  18. Hard to believe that The Dalles may be poised to come within 1/2 of a degree of the warmest October on record (1988) – and do so without ever getting above 81 this month! No real “heat,” just warmish weather with mild nights almost every day.

  19. Weedeater says:

    Warm bias indeed

  20. DBurnett says:

    Mark, has October snow ever been recorded at PDX or downtown?

    • Justin says:

      Downtown Portland has recorded measurable snow in October, once, in 1935 when 0.6″ fell on October 29. That was before PDX came into existence.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Justin is right (as always with climate data). Wasn’t 1935 the year it snowed in April too?

    • Justin says:

      Same cold season, yes. 1935-36 was real screwy. Cold and arctic air in late October, mild December/January, record cold February, then cold and snow at the end with a 5″ snowstorm on April 1. If only there were weather forums that far back.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      In 1935 Salem dropped into the teens and had 5 inches of snow at the airport location. In 2003 we had a trace of snow and a high of 39.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Both were on October 31st. Peace.

  21. Joshua says:

    First. Mark, I though I asked you nicely to not include warm and record in the same sentence for a long time. Ha. It sure didn’t take long. What are the latest weekly ECMWF maps showing for the next month?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I apologize…I have brought great shame to the members of this blog.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      There were new ones today. First two weeks (through first week of November) have ridging overhead or just northeast. More of the same for the next two weeks. Following two weeks are a bit flatter, but no trough

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Lame. That’s all I have to say. I feel when we break out of this “warm” regime we will all be thinking, “why do we live in this cool and wet climate?” Seems there is always a distinct correlation between above and below average norms. No one likes them.

  22. Ryan says:

    First?

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