A Record Warm October Again? Probably Not, but Close

October 22, 2015

Since we now have only 9 days left in the month, I figure it’s time to take a look and see how we are running compared to last October.  You know, the warmest on record here in Portland.

201410

In fact it was the warmest on record in all of Western Washington and most of Western Oregon.  There’s NO WAY we would do that two years in a row…right?  Well, it’s going to be close but I think it’s most likely this will go down as the 2nd warmest.

So far the entire West is running well above normal this month with the core of the warm anomaly over the Intermountain region and Rockies.

october_anomaly

Last year PDX had an average October temperature of 60.1 degrees.  Again, that was the warmest October on record at PDX.

SO FAR (through the 22nd) this month is running at 61.5 degrees; that’s 1.4 degrees warmer than last year’s record!

Seems like a slam dunk right?  Well, that’s with the coolest 9 days of the month to go.  Or at least the average is coolest at the end of the month.  I see two possibilities

1. If we were to have 9 perfectly normal days to end the month

Temperature would be 58.6 degrees…A tie for 2nd warmest on record.

2. If our 7 Day Forecast is correct plus I add two “normal” days at the end

Temperature would be 59.8 degrees…2nd warmest on record

Considering my forecast if anything seems a little warm (warm-biased) I think it’s unlikely that we’re even warmer than that.

7 Day

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen