Oregon AMS Winter Weather Conference THIS SATURDAY

Hey folks, that once-a-year weather “Fall-tacular” is back! (that was a Phil Hendrie reference for you fans!)

It’s the 23rd Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference – This Saturday 10/24 @ OMSI in Portland.  10:00 A.M.

ANYONE IS WELCOME

Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again give their prognostications for the upcoming winter.  Will the current El Nino offer up warm and drier than normal or warmer and wet conditions this coming winter? What about the Cascade mountain snow pack?

NEW — Dr. Wolf Read will have a special presentation on the rare August 29th 2015 windstorm that raked the Pacific Northwest!

NEW — Dave Tragethon (Mt. Hood Meadows) will talk ski slope weather for the upcoming winter! Come hear all the details.

One lucky person will walk away with a $300 Davis home weather station that will be raffled off as well.  It’s currently sitting in my garage at home…unopened of course.

Where: Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), main auditorium, 1945 S.E. Water Ave. in Portland.
Driving directions to OMSI: http://tinyurl.com/6rrz8em.

Meeting and parking cost: This meeting is free and open to all ages of the general public. Free parking in all OMSI parking lots.

Agenda: Meteorologists from across the Pacific Northwest will once again give their weather prognostications for the upcoming winter.

I’ll be giving my usual wrap-up of the past weather year.  Believe it or not, there is PLENTY to talk about (65 PowerPoint slides so far!).  That’s due to the unusually warm weather regime we are in.

One change as we head forward, this is morphing into a “Winter Weather” vs. “Winter Forecast” meeting.  There doesn’t seem to be as much interest in forecasting as in the past, so we’ve added some additional folks to beef things up.

I’ll be selling raffle tickets for the Davis Vantage Vue weather station in the back otherwise…hope to see lots of you there!

winter-weather-conference

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

41 Responses to Oregon AMS Winter Weather Conference THIS SATURDAY

  1. schmit44 says:

    10/23/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 58 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:47 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 12 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & Burns Municipal (4144 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    Lorella (67/14 ) (4160 ft )

  2. leer` Geddy says:

    Seattle is on pace to set a New all time warm October record again after setting a all time warm October record in 2014. I assuming PDX is on the same pace too.

  3. Another puny front came through my area yesterday afternoon. I recorded all of 0.01 inches from it. Nothing exciting going on- is this a foretaste of winter?

  4. schmit44 says:

    10/21/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:81 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 56 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 18 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    Lorella (71/19 ) (4160 ft )

  5. leer` Geddy says:

    Looks like the Blob is growing again right off our coast.

    http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Arrived here in the Delorion to checkout the weather here in Oct. 21st 2015, too hot and dry it sucks, I’m heading back to the ice age.
    FYI
    Back to the future II has today’s date

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Yeah, that 64 is BLISTERING!

    • W7ENK says:

      Funny. In Hill Valley today, it’s been pouring rain all day with some embedded thunderstorms, but The Weather Service says it’s supposed to clear off and become sunny this afternoon at 4:32:05pm, “precisely on the tick!” You know, it’s too bad the post office isn’t as efficient as the weather service, eh Mark? But by any measure, today’s been a rather nice, if not unusually wet October day for Southern California.

      Up here in Portland, it was foggy and drizzly all morning, until around Noon, then the sun came out, but it still feels cool, very fall like, fairly typical, pretty average.

      Definitely not hot, definitely not dry — in either location. I think your Delorean is broken, Jas.

    • Paul D says:

      Hey McFly!! It isn’t blistering unless you’re doing 88MPH when the lightning strikes 🙂

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I was referring to this year, not nessessarily today…😵💥🔨

    • W7ENK says:

      Is that why you specifically said: “Arrived here in the Delorion [sic] to checkout the weather here in Oct. 21st 2015… “?

      My bad for thinking you were specifically talking about today. 😵💥🔨

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Yeah, I quickly realized that after I posted it. I was thinking it would make sense after this hot year but then I realized it was foggy and fall like… D’oh!!!

    • Compared to 57 degrees on October 26, 1985 – yesterday’s 64 in Portland must’ve felt pretty nice.

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    Want to hear a really funny joke? Ready, here goes-GFS Meteogram. Almost every day since late August it has been forecasting anywhere from 1.5-4.5 inches of rain 1-10 days out. If this had come true we would had about 40 inches of rain since late August. Instead we have had about 1.5 inches. No matter what anyone else has they have heavy rains for PDX. Speaking of rain it looks mainly dry and just a schoche warmer than normal for the next few days. Just now becoming sunny after a very foggy morning. Dropped down to 42 this morning. See you at O.M.S.I. Peace.

    • Joshua says:

      I have noticed that too, Dan. Seemingly always very wet at the end of the forecast period, and it never comes to fruition. Lately, it had been advertising very wet conditions about 8 days out over and over, but again, no such luck. It’s also has been consistently overstating the rain late this weekend compared to other models.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      We are entering the wet season very soon. The rains will be coming, its just a matter of when. I think by Nov. 7th or so they will be here.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      In split-flow or ridging patterns models are often trying to break both down too quickly.

  8. gidrons says:

    Whatever happened to Phil Hendrie? That guy used to crack me up.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      He has a free podcast almost every day; I listen to it on the way home most nights. We talk about it in the studio all the time. Margaret, Bud, Leonard all are “in-studio” with him. Search for THE NEW PHIL HENDRIE SHOW.

    • gidrons says:

      Thanks Mark. Do his “guests” still take callers? That was my favorite part of the show.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      No, unfortunately since it’s a podcast it’s only him. That’s the one thing I miss. But once a week he does have an episode from the past that usually involves callers. Always hilarious.

  9. W7ENK says:

    Should be a good time for all in attendance.

  10. Foggy and mild up this way. Feels more like late September than October out there. There’s been years that by this time temperatures have had trouble getting out of the forties during the day, and this year they have trouble getting down to the forties at night.

  11. DEL X V says:

    I wish I could hear Wolf Reads report on the rare August wind storm. Unfortunately, my rocking chair can not make it to PDX. I note the PDX NWS mentions the tropical storm Olaf in their extended discussion. Interesting potential event…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Gives us something to watch, relentlessly on watch we are.

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      907 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2015

      WITH ALL THIS SAID…THE REAL STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH THE 180-200KT JET DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
      OF IT…INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OLAF TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE…BUT THIS
      EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND REMNANT MOISTURE HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT IT WILL BE WORTH
      MONITORING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS. /NEUMAN

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Its a hurricane and its very far away for now. San Francisco seems to be thinking they will get a lot of rain out of this next week but too early to tell. Its easy to see why so many model divergences are occurring from San Diego to Seattle next week.

  12. Best wishes for the Winter Weather Conference. I won’t be there, but my friend Wolf Read should provide plenty of intresting information.

  13. schmit44 says:

    10/20/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:76 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 59 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:39 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 23 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Lorella (66/24 ) (4160 ft )

  14. hopplepopple says:

    What time on Saturday?

  15. Dave Proehl says:

    If read it a couple of times and don’t think I see a start time. Did I miss it?

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