Nothing groundbreaking here, but two graphics that convey a bit more about this upcoming winter. A look at the BIG picture across the country.
First, El Nino temperature anomalies across the region for the 6 strong Nino events we’ve seen since 1950. That’s what we have this year. Note 5 of 6 winters are generally warmer than normal…when the whole winter is averaged. Then the bigger image is the composite of all 6 years:
Then the precipitation anomaly for those 6 years, along with the composite of all 6:
3 were normal or wetter than average, 3 were significantly drier than normal. The composite we often look at says El Nino is usually drier than normal. But examining the maps you see some years have been a bit wetter than normal but the dry years have been significantly drier than normal. That skews the composite to the dry side. By looking at all 6 separately it’s obvious a drier than normal winter is definitely not a lock.
Again, none of this is ground-breaking material, but I wanted to point out that each El Nino is different and the effects are definitely not the same each time around. I have a feeling in another 50 years, when many of us are long gone, we’ll have a much better idea about the “flavors” of El Nino.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the clouds/showers!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen