ECMWF Monthly Maps

For hardcore weather geeks only…

Hmmm, not quite what we were seeing last week at this time.  The ECMWF monthly run shows upper-level ridging quite persistent over the next 4 weeks.  Here are the 4 weekly maps:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Notice ridging wants to stay closer to us.  Here are the 15 day anomalies from the GFS, GEM’s most recent runs:

m500za_f360_bg_NA (1)

m500za_f360_bg_NA

This is a wet pattern in the last few days of October…quite a bit different.  Hmmm, disagreement is always interesting.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

58 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Maps

  1. schmit44 says:

    10/14/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 66 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at GREENPOINT(3310 ft)
    Low: 23 at KIRK (4519 ft ) & Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 60 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (84/24 ) (4531 ft )

  2. Boring Oregon says:

  3. Overcast skies + low clouds this morning made for a chilly day. Sure it hit 66, but it’s down into the low 60s now and not being full sun, it never felt warm. Also, the wind.

  4. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    Where is rob at? He doesn’t seem to post much anymore. Is he in poor health?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      He has a Facebook group PDX WX ANALYSIS: https://www.facebook.com/groups/pdx.wx.analysis/ and is on there quite a bit.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Josh, don’t start,, he only posts when theres something extreme about to happen or on the horizon.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      We know Mark. I think ita more of a we don’t do the facebook thing. I don’t for reasons unknown and Josh,”my brother”, doesn’t because he’s afraid of the possible snowstorm hype that may come when the chance is 10% that all news stations in PDX go crazy cause his phone would light up with nothing by that because of “fake” friends. Alright, nevermind, I did have a couple with friends from work after a busy at the depot outside of Smith Rock. Great place to climb by the way.

  5. Seaweed says:

    I rate today 4 tacos out of 4 tacos. Nice.

  6. I usually don’t make guesses about the winter ahead until it’s mid-December. All these models disagreeing with each other is of little intrest to me now. I agree with W7 that December 2008 is not a good example to use for predicting winter. I call that one “the flashback to the ’60’s.”

  7. Please… don’t say the R-word.

  8. schmit44 says:

    10/13/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 66 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370 ft) & Government Camp(5000 ft) & Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 24 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    Beatty (84/27 ) (4320 ft )

  9. Boring Oregon says:

    Why did the weatherman bring soap to work?
    He was expecting showers! Ba dum tiss

  10. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    And let me add. I’m not paying weather bell monthly to show me this garbage.

  11. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    Mark. I want to address the response to my post below. Based on what I’ve seen, the 3 and 4 week models “are” less than 50 percent. Are they not? You wouldn’t put that in your 7 day would you? Just fodder for us weather geeks to discuss. I think November is going to surprise us. Just based off of my 30+ years of following Oregon weather. Not these new super computer generated fantasy world maps.

  12. Mark bergal says:

    Latest info i received is for modest systerms in a progressive pattern beginning Saturday with temps a bit above average. No cold temps in sight

  13. As says:

    I’m not a hardcore weather geek. In fact, I’ve only started following weather in the last year or so. But I’ve followed this blog religiously, every day, in that time. I really like seeing these maps and discussions over what the future holds. I’m getting a little sad that it looks like we won’t have a real fall chill this year, but I would still rather know ahead of time.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      We will have a real fall chill As. It’s coming maybe next week and if not then for sure in November.

  14. So we get some kind of ridging nearby, several times in the next month? Will be interesting to watch for when warm departures in lowland high temps fizzle out despite warm 850s overhead…the clear sign that inversion season has kicked in!

    My bet is that we still get some lowland 60s in the first 10-15 days of November…IF we don’t get a ton of fog-generating rain right beforehand. That doesn’t mean EVERY day will be in the 60s or better, for the next month.

    Or maybe we luck out and get a retrogression, for some chilly airmasses in early November??? (i.e. -5c or colder @ 850mb)

  15. jeff says:

    80 degrees (weather channel prediction for Thursday) just seems wrong for October. I want the cooler “rainy Oregon” back big time!

  16. Lee Wilson says:

    How about giving the computer ‘the boot’ and try one week at a time. Or may be 10 days at a time? And just use good ok fashioned radar and satellites to help locate threats..

    In my honest opinion, I think we rely to much on technology and it seems to arguing with its self…like this politically correct Android Device.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Or, you could just ignore these posts if you don’t want to look any farther than 7 days ahead. Seems like lots of people are interested in general patterns more than a week out…I know I am. You’re looking for trends and patterns, not details

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We trained the machines too well.
      They’re smarter’n us.

    • Longview 400 ft says:

      Well said Mark!!! Please keep them coming.

  17. schmit44 says:

    10/12/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:86 at EW1735 Central P(1285 ft)
    Low: 57 at KNF91 PORTABLE(4955 ft) & SQUAW PEAK(4964 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at Government Camp(3600 ft)
    Low: 21 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (80/23 ) (4531 ft )

  18. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    GFS operational looks pretty wet starting the first of next week. Or will the Euro win out? I’m thinking not this time. Bets???

  19. Boring Oregon says:

    Well, I have noticed a lot of disagreement here in these last two posts. I think what we should all do is just wait and see what happens. I mean is it really that important to know exactly what’s going to happen a month from now? I don’t think it is and there isn’t any way to find the answer to that so lets just wait and see.

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    The Reid Glacier has receded far enough that it no longer wraps around the giant rock cliff on climbers left. Wasn’t but three years ago I was above it on Yocum Ridge and it extended below it 100 yards below it. When you have glaciated peaks it gives you are real sense of just how fast things are changing.
    The snow from Saturday sure melted quick. Usually by October it stays long enough to bring spectacular fall pictures of snow capped peaks and trees in their peak color.
    We need snow!!!!!! A lot of snow!!!!!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      It’s only October 12fh Jason. It will come. Relax as Aaron Rodgers said last year. Remember winter of 08-09. Nothing happened til Dec 10th or so then it was epic for us and the mts.

    • W7ENK says:

      2008 is a terrible analog to parallel, I really wish people would stop that. I’ve seen many (including some of the professional mets) try and draw parallels to the 2008 analog every single winter since, and it has yet to pan out again… and it likely won’t for another 45+ years.

      Besides, December 2008 was — quite literally — a near miss. I say “near miss” because it almost missed us completely, but didn’t. It was such a borderline situation to begin with, just like most of our significant snowfalls here, but PDX Metro just happened to luck out and the cards fell in our favor for once. It could have just as easily been an epic bust like nearly all the winters before and since, relegated to our ever growing list of major snowstorms that never were, but everything lined up just ever so perfectly, and we somehow managed to hit the jackpot. How often does that really happen? Not often enough, that’s for sure! I certainly don’t expect it to happen this winter, but (of course) I wouldn’t mind it if did…

  21. Jason Hougak says:

    Well Leer Geddy, Dave confirmed the early October opening at Meadows and Timberline in the 90’s.

  22. Paul D says:

    Bring on the quick cooldown!

  23. leer` Geddy says:

    Can’t imagine the GFS and GEM being more accurate then the Euro that would be a joke.

  24. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    I think it’s all bullsheet to be honest.

    And mark knows better. He claims not to do long range forecasts but he keeps showing these. Let’s just equate it to throwing darts at a dartboard with a blindfold on shall we? I’d like for mark to show us a chart showing the accuracy of these maps the last 10 years. I bet it’s a joke.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      They didn’t exist until just a few years ago when ensemble forecasting came into existence. Note my comment above. No one is forcing you to look at these maps, but plenty of people ask for them. And 20 years from now I think a three week general pattern forecast will be commonplace.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Well I guess a four week outlook is really a medium range forecast. At least I consider it so. And just remember the ECMWF and the GEM are somebody else s forecast not Marks. He is reporting on these outlooks. I for one am glad Mark posts these outlooks. It gives me another weather tool to use in making my own forecast. Up until about 1978 the NWS had a 3 day forecast. Then they came up with a five day forecast. Now because of better forecasting tools it is a 7 day forecast and most likely by 2020 it will be a 10 day forecast. Models are getting better and better with each passing year. Maybe in a few years a 21 day forecast will be as accurate as a 7 day forecast is now. But remember even 24 hour forecasts change every day because of new information coming in. And one more thing, when the models call for snow and Arctic cold for us a lot of you sing the praises of modeling. But I notice when they call for more warm and dry weather I see a lot of comments about how worthless models are. We are lucky to have this forum to discuss weather. Thank you Mark. Peace.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      He posts them for the weather geeks (like myself). It’s really just food for thought.

  25. Mark bergal says:

    which is more reliable though?

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