Warm Temps Today

11pm Friday…

With the cloud cover we still hit 71 degrees in Portland today, a good 4 degrees above normal.  But take a look at the “hot” October temperatures to the south!

MarkRecordHighTempsMetro

I was surprised Medford wasn’t a record…I see it was 94 on this date in the past though.

So far Portland is running about 5 degrees above normal for October and that sure won’t change a lot in the next week as high pressure and a warm atmosphere continue overhead most of the time.  In fact models in general remain warm for another 10 days.  WAY out there around the 20th there are indications we turn significantly cooler with more precipitation.  Climatologically the last 10 days of October we see a significant uptick in rainfall so we’ll see how that works out.  Note the good agreement on GFS ensembles with cooling to around normal (cool in late October!) around the 20th:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Note the unusually high 850mb temps about a week from now.  The ECMWF is showing the same thing, so I’m confident we may once again get up to around 80 degrees at that time.  Take a look at both the GFS (latest 00z run) and ECMWF meteograms.  Both are similar with highs peaking around 80.

KPDX_2015100912_dx_240

KPDX_2015101000_tx_240

I think the big message here is that this coming week may very well be the last of the warm and dry weather if long-range models are correct.  You gardeners better get your last-minute stuff wrapped up in the next 7-10 days.

It’s time for a Mark Nelsen temperature forecast check. I just charted all of September and the first few days of October.  Looks like I actually had a slight cool bias forecasting highs as PDX (just like I did all summer long), but was on the warm side more frequently with the lows.  That cooler period with clear skies back at mid-month really threw me off.

BiasLow

BiasHigh

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

51 Responses to Warm Temps Today

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    If my memory serves me right Timberline opened up in October during the mid 90’s.

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Nice to see new snow on Hood on the mid and upper mountain.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      It’s the 3 sisters as well. Along with Jefferson. Not too much longer til I may start seeing flakes in air here either. Once the sun goes down it sure feels lo Ike fall here.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      *on

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Good deal Mat, also I don’t think you really need to repost the correction I got it the first time👍

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    Foggy and 59 at Noon. May not hit 70 today but it looks like we start a long run of 70+ days tomorrow. Thursday and Friday might even hit 80. I just looked ahead and the CPC has us warmer than normal the next 16 days. That takes us out till just about Halloween. So just about assured of a lousy start to the Cascade snow season. But then you take what you get and right now we are getting the warm and dry weather. If you want to see snow however you might try the Northeast later in the week. They might see a few inches back there. Tomorrow is the 53rd anniversary of the Columbus day storm. Glad yesterday wasn’t epic. Happy Columbo day everyone. Be sure to wear your rumpled raincoat Monday. Oh just one more thing, Peace.

    • Mark bergal says:

      You say staying warm and Mark says big change to cool around the 20th. Me confused

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Well maybe things may have changed since Mark last posted or maybe the CPC is wrong. Anyway what the CPC has are only the odds of it being warmer or cooler than normal. Also Mark has no crystal ball, he interprets the maps and models at that time to come up with a forecast. However maps and models do sometimes change rather rapidly. I have great respect for Mark and am only going on what the CPC had out today. Mark is usually right. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      And don’t forget about what Paul said as well. He usually has his facts straight and knows his weather science pretty well. I have a feeling come later this month and early next we will get some dramatic cooling as well. I’ll be at the Seahawks game next weekend, I hope it stays nice at least through then. Go Hawks.

    • Mark bergal says:

      I, like many, are just ready for a change to cold.
      Dont even know where my winter coat is. Needed it tons two years ago. Last year I might have worn it once. Hope Paul is correct.

    • jimbo says:

      Cascade snow season doesn’t start until november

    • Paul D says:

      We are way overdue for dramatic cooling.

    • Mark bergal says:

      Overdue, yes. Does that mean it will take place though?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Overdue doesn’t work if the climate changes though. The Willamette Valley has been getting steadily warmer for over 100 years. A couple of years ago Mark had a post regarding average snowfall each decade in PDX. During the 1860,s PDX average over 40 inches per year. Now they average less than 5. So being overdue may be out of date. Winters like last year may become the norm in the future. We certainly look to be headed in that direction. Peace.

  4. David B. says:

    1.05″ between 9:00 AM yesterday and 9:00 AM today. Spaced and didn’t empty the gauge before the storm began so no storm total.

  5. Happy (Canadian) Thanksgiving to all- I know it’s Columbus Day in the U.S. but I want to just take this opportunity to express my appreciation for being a participant in this blog. I’ve learned quite a lot since being here- it’s particularly intresting for me to compare the conditions you have there with mine(they are usually, but not always similar). Anyway, lets all enjoy the long weekend, and it seems we’re in for a sunny week ahead(after Monday). 🙂

  6. Paul D says:

    Just drove Bald Peak Rd from Newberg. It was foggy, windy and raining hard. Not to mention the tree parts coming down too.

  7. Tracy Thomas says:

    Based on the forecasts, I’ve left my peppers and tomatoes in the garden for one more week at least 3 times now. I’m guessing next weekend is when I’ll pull them all out, but I’m getting the most out of this hot summer and warm fall.

  8. David B. says:

    Something of a windstorm this afternoon. I say “something of a” because my power hasn’t gone out yet, and that’s my subjective standard for what constitutes a “windstorm:” enough wind to take my power out.

  9. Longview 400 ft says:

    I believe that cold front I have been waiting for just passed us by with a great down pour I have not seen in quite sometime. Boy, my trees need the water!!! Never seem them this dry before. I have 60-70 footers.

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    What a windy day today. Winds of 30-35 from the South at Noon with a temperature of 73. This is a new record for Salem with 155 days over 70 so far in 2015. Sure hate to be a kicker at a football game in these winds. Could be an 80 yard pass somewhere in Oregon today. Looks like a long stretch of warm dry weather coming up this week. However by around the 20th of October we should be back to normal with highs in the 60,s and some rains. Peace.

  11. paulbeugene says:

    Agree that is looks like last hurrah for summer weather next week, low to mid 80s not out of question in Willamette Valley.

    Be forewarned:

    The models show things cooling off in the next two weeks. If you look at past records, there is STRONG correlation between mid-late October warmth and anomalously cool to cold weather about two weeks later. The ensemble means show trend but expect colder runs to follow. Retrogression happens.

    We stand a good chance of having highs 30 degrees colder than being experienced in coming week, lows getting to near or below freezing, by 14 days out.

    Coldest temps relative to normal (for the next six months) will happen in the next 60 days.

    Enjoy the El Nino

  12. A warm humid overnight low of 61 here. More like a summer night.

  13. Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

    Due to climatology and just the law of averages I foresee us getting pretty darn cold and wet as we head into November. I’m also going to predict we see an arctic front around thanksgiving and a real cool December with at least 3 snow chances. Just can’t see these November/December periods staying crappy here while the east gets hammered. It’s our turn.

    • Mark bergal says:

      i hope you are correct. Dont know if you are wishing or this is based on somethimg empirical

    • Josh "the snowman" Gladstone says:

      I’m basing this off the fact that everything is cyclical. Especially since we were in a period of northwesterly flow last month and these patterns tend to repeat every other month (6 weeks) or so. I’m also fearing that if we don’t score something before the end of the year we are toast!! lol. As we all know, el nino will rear its ugly head come Jan/Feb…..I expect blah weather for those 2 months. Then most likely some fringe event in March.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Once again, i like your thinking.

  14. Boring Oregon says:

    Today I was expecting to wake up to clouds and rain. Instead I wake up to sun and a perfectly clear sky?

  15. Paul D says:

    80 in October?!? Sigh….. looking forward to normal temps.

  16. Great weather for growing fungi- I had an overnight minimum of 59.4F, making it the second warmest I’ve recorded in October(the first was last year on the 5th). Not a whole lot of rain from this system actually, but it did come down hard briefly around 1am this morning.

  17. Jason Hougak says:

    What’s your gut feeling Mark on these ever increasing warm and dry years? Are these going to become our norm? I wouldn’t mind a hot summer if we had a great snowpack winter. I’m sure Mt. Hood Ski Bowl is biting their nails over the coming winter. In the past I remember getting amped up for the ski season, seems lately it’s giving me nausea! Hard putting out money for a sport where there is no guarantee for good snowfall. But I’ll stick with it because there is nothing like untracked powder and on blue bird day!

    • () says:

      Save your money. It won’t be even close to worth it this year. Unless skiing on dirt is your thing.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      All too many people these days are obsessed with wanting perfection, guarantees, insurance and a perfect world. Very unreal expectations, while on the other hand taking life as it comes and enjoying the spontaneity of life and what mother nature provides is quite enough for those who have gained some wisdom through the years.

  18. High Desert Mat says:

    Warm bias Mark!!!!!!

  19. Mark bergal says:

    It has been a nice Fall, but i think we are ready for the rain and chill. Just in time for Halloween as usual. Wonder how long it will be until we ger another extended warm season like this one. Statistically, its not likely soon.

  20. Aleta says:

    Guess I’ll pull everything out this next week! What an amazing run of perfect garden weather we’ve had this fall!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I just yanked out the zucchini today. Longest season I’ve ever had with them from around 4th of July to today. Bazillions of butternut squash. Carrots can stay for now…we’ve been eating those constantly

    • Paul D says:

      We’re up to our ears in tomatoes! They won’t stop growing!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      If you have too many veggies from you garden bring them to the OMSI Winter weather conference. They will be snapped up. Peace.

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