Warm Temps Today

October 9, 2015

11pm Friday…

With the cloud cover we still hit 71 degrees in Portland today, a good 4 degrees above normal.  But take a look at the “hot” October temperatures to the south!

MarkRecordHighTempsMetro

I was surprised Medford wasn’t a record…I see it was 94 on this date in the past though.

So far Portland is running about 5 degrees above normal for October and that sure won’t change a lot in the next week as high pressure and a warm atmosphere continue overhead most of the time.  In fact models in general remain warm for another 10 days.  WAY out there around the 20th there are indications we turn significantly cooler with more precipitation.  Climatologically the last 10 days of October we see a significant uptick in rainfall so we’ll see how that works out.  Note the good agreement on GFS ensembles with cooling to around normal (cool in late October!) around the 20th:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Note the unusually high 850mb temps about a week from now.  The ECMWF is showing the same thing, so I’m confident we may once again get up to around 80 degrees at that time.  Take a look at both the GFS (latest 00z run) and ECMWF meteograms.  Both are similar with highs peaking around 80.

KPDX_2015100912_dx_240

KPDX_2015101000_tx_240

I think the big message here is that this coming week may very well be the last of the warm and dry weather if long-range models are correct.  You gardeners better get your last-minute stuff wrapped up in the next 7-10 days.

It’s time for a Mark Nelsen temperature forecast check. I just charted all of September and the first few days of October.  Looks like I actually had a slight cool bias forecasting highs as PDX (just like I did all summer long), but was on the warm side more frequently with the lows.  That cooler period with clear skies back at mid-month really threw me off.

BiasLow

BiasHigh

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen