ECMWF Monthly Run

Maps ahead for the real hardcore weather geeks only…

Interesting turn of events with the ECMWF over the past few days.  It’s now showing ridging returning earlier than expected. In the monthly run one week ago it was showing ridging after the first week or so of October.  Now it’s pretty much from here on out through the month of October.  Here are the 4 weekly maps showing upper-level ridging hanging around the region for the next 4 weeks.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

I can’t show you the maps (legal issue), but the total precipitation (ensemble average) is only around 2″ in the next 32 days here in the valley.  The control run (higher res) shows 3-4″ during that period.  Surface temperatures are above normal, when all 32 days are averaged, in both control and ensembles.

What a pain to forecast this coming weekend.  The GFS builds a ridge quite close to us, but the ECMWF and GEM (Canadian) both bring a cold trough down over us Saturday.  It leaves quickly, but these models would imply 60-65 degrees on Saturday with a few showers, whereas the GFS says about 85 and sunny with strong easterly wind.  I went in the middle for now.  You can sure see the disagreement even among just the ECMWF ensembles:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

21 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. W7ENK says:

    Hey, guess what? 81 today. I guess Mark was right after all, even for it being so late in the season. Congrats Mark, you really do know what you’re talking about!!

    Unlike some people…

  2. leer` Geddy says:

    This could be a very dry El nino fall/winter season this time around since the last El nino 09/10 we had was fairly wet, that’s my speculation.

  3. BlazerFan32 says:

    It appears The Blob is going to make it’s presence known for a while in mainly Western to Central Canada.

  4. Mark bergal says:

    I thought the blob had diminished in size and wasn’t influencing our weather as much. Is this still the resilient Ridge or something else?

  5. Paul D says:

    I don’t see the 7 day forecast when going to kptv.com on my phone and selecting weather from the menu. Is it supposed to be there? I jujust see the 1 day forecast.

    • Tom (NE Portland) says:

      Yeah the mobile version of KPTV’s site has been like that for a couple weeks now. Buggy and formatted incorrectly.

  6. Boring Oregon says:

    I’m telling you guys, we have to nuke the blob!

  7. Paul D says:

    Hoping for the 65 and wet forecast! Go away 80’s!

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    Ew.

  9. leer` Geddy says:

    Warm and wet with a ridge overhead? the seems like a contradiction, must be some kind of undercutting or something.

  10. () says:

    So sick of this dry, warm weather. I have a bad feeling about this winter.

  11. Longview 400 ft says:

    Wow, hopefully the months of November & December bring totally different weather patterns of wet and cold.

    • Longview 400 ft says:

      I really do love this long continuse weather, don’t get me wrong, but this has to come to an end sometime.

    • The best hope we probably have is for some kind of backdoor event caused by the ridge retrograding out into the ocean for a few days, and allowing chilly Canadian air to surge into the Columbia Basin.

    • Longview 400 ft says:

      So your saying there’s a chance.

    • sds says:

      Loving it! Just got back from Hawaii last nite to this beautiful fall weather (they’d had warm rain the last 2 days). Now I can finish my logging job without much mud.

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