A Pretty Bad Climate Model Forecast

I just saw this on WeatherBell’s site this morning.  Back in July the CFS model was showing the hot summer continuing into a very warm September.  Considering fires were just getting going and we were so dry, this looked really bad with ridging continuing:

cfs_sept

But look at what has actually happened:

actual

The exact opposite.  A spectacular failure in the 2 month time frame eh?

On the positive side, it brought the fire season to a screeching halt; there are no large fires actively burning in our state.  The 3 “official” large fires are just smoldering and I see Umatilla National Forest has even started the regular fall prescribed burning.  Plus, we were set up for a really bad September west of the Cascades when the unusually dry conditions could have caused havoc with the seasonal arrival of hot easterly wind.  That didn’t happen and now the ground in the woods outside my home is somewhat moist.  Fire season is pretty much over.

Of course the other benefit was a very early start to summer meant an early end too.  Labor Day really was the end of the hot stuff, minus those two days mid-month in the 90s.

For the next two months, here is what the CFS shows:

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201510_w3

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201511_w3

Supposedly warmer than normal through November…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to A Pretty Bad Climate Model Forecast

  1. schmit44 says:

    9/24/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 63 at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:54 at IRAWS 40(2860 ft)
    Low: 26 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    Lorella (84/29 ) (4160 ft )

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Day 2 in Alaska. I was delayed out of my hotel that morning…and it paid off! An amazing display of what I call “Jesus Rays” developed over Homer, Alaska.

  3. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I’m happy to present to you Day 1 in Alaska! This part of the trip encompasses traveling from Anchorage to Homer (see map).

  4. Paul D says:

    Where’s the 7 day forecast? I only see a one day. Did somebody forget to post the 7 day graphic?

  5. Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

    Funny how the precipitation forecasts keep dwindling down to nuthin! Wonder if this will continue to be a trend through this winter just like last? Even though we’ve been cooler this month, it has still been a pretty stellar and sunny month IMO…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=pqr&pil=afd

  6. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Going with 80 for Monday Mark? A little bold considering all of the uncertainty with that ULL floating around. Oh, plus it’s late September and 80 is getting harder to achieve even with perfect conditions.

    Prime example is your forecast of 80 for today at PDX. Currently sitting at 75 with about an hour of heating to go. They could pull off a 5pm miracle, but not looking so good….

    • Paul D says:

      Didn’t even come close to 80 at my place and I’m not complaining!

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, you don’t need to be a dick about it, Jesse.

      Go read a book to someone who cares, but keep your hands to yourself!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      You never disappoint Jesse, even after all that attention I gave you! 78 was the high today…close enough. Yesterday I was 2 degrees too cool, today 2 degrees too high.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Just keeping you honest! Remember? 😉

      You’ve got to admit there is a lot of uncertainty for next week, though. Probably safer to go somewhere in the middle as opposed to warmest case scenario. But hey, that’s just me!

      The 00Z GFS is out and shows us nowhere near 80 for Monday. What becomes of the splitting trough currently offshore is giving the models fits!

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    73 with a few alto cumulus at 1:00 PM. Should hit just about 80 today. Latest GFS Meteogram for the next 16 days has PDX at under .25. Not exactly a drought buster. If you don’t like a model then just like a streetcar wait because there is always another one coming along. What is likely is some weak ridging, a few weak systems with little or no rain and near normal temps. One month to the OMSI weather conference. The big question is will Mark let Brian McMillan near his presentation-meow. Peace.

  8. schmit44 says:

    9/23/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft) & BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 59 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(72 ft)
    Low: 20 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (77/20 ) (4160 ft )

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I discovered today that 75 degrees is about the cut-off for comfort when riding the motorbike around with mesh/summertime riding gear. Below that requires windproof gear. Found myself a little chilled at times on this day with a cruise to Vista House. Gonna do one more ride tomorrow with the summer gear (last chance saloon to timberline). Ya, it’ll be chilly there, but the speeds are low.

  10. Boring Oregon says:

    Got down to 39.4 this morning. That’s the 2nd night in a row below 40. I’m not counting on a third though.

  11. Paul D says:

    So we’re expecting the opposite of the two month forecast? 🙂

  12. runrain says:

    Today represents a typical December day for Phoenix, weatherwise. Colder at night, though, down there in the winter.

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    Sunny and 70 at 1:00 PM. What a great way to start Autumn. Now begins the model whine season. That is when one day a model shows us in a cold spell 15 days out and 52 million people post about what an epic storm it will be. With 12 foot drifts and -10f. Then the next day the model show 55 and rain 14 days out and the whining begins. I never expect snow around here. But if it happens and we get a few inches then I will really enjoy it. If not well Spring is just 6 months away. Yesterday the GFS meteogram had a cold snap (relatively speaking) for PDX October 5-7. Not today. It will hit the Northern plains instead. Go figure. Peace.

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    Don’t believe the model madness!!!

  15. On a lighter note….the cool September really stymied Summer 2015 from dethroning 1967 as the “Worst Summer Ever,” at least here in the eastern Gorge. The 1967 summer had one additional 100+ day and – get this! – it even had one more 65+ night at DLS than this year!

    Though I must admit, that 20-day stretch from June 25 to July 15 was probably the most brutal heat event I’ve ever had to endure, and likely beat out the August 1967 event in terms of the attrition factor.

  16. You didn’t post your Fall Equinox tidbit on this blog, Mark! And last night’s 10:40pm rendition of it was a good one too.

    Shame, shame, shame….

  17. Joshua says:

    Apparently, basically the entire continent of North America will be indefinitely warmer than normal. Hard to believe.

  18. buffedman says:

    I often look at the CFS model for temperature forecasts in my area(Shoreline,WA Convergence Zone) but I’ve noticed it’s quite frequently incorrect. The variables it resides with are the wrong ones. It also goes based on current conditions and then comes with tons of results that can easily be opposed. The weather pattern that we’re in can change as little as 2 weeks.

    • This reminds me somewhat of what happened in the autumn of 2006. With an El Nino coming, we were supposed to get a mild dry fall. Instead we got one very wet and stormy November and December.

  19. W7ENK says:

    Repost from last:

    Chilly-willy this morning!!

    40.1 overnight at my place, I almost thought I saw little hints of frost in some spots along my ride in to downtown. Chilly in the house, too. Methinks it’s time to clean out the vents and kick the heat on again? It’s been off since March.

    I guess it’s also time to start bringing my peppers in at night.

    Check this out:

    Can anyone identify this pepper plant?? I managed to grow two of them from seed this summer, they’re waist-high now. This ain’t Mexico, these aren’t even supposed to grow here — a testament to the hot and dry summer we’ve had. I’m hoping to winter them over indoors, with enough sunlight they’ll flower and fruit all year long!

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