A Pretty Bad Climate Model Forecast

September 23, 2015

I just saw this on WeatherBell’s site this morning.  Back in July the CFS model was showing the hot summer continuing into a very warm September.  Considering fires were just getting going and we were so dry, this looked really bad with ridging continuing:

cfs_sept

But look at what has actually happened:

actual

The exact opposite.  A spectacular failure in the 2 month time frame eh?

On the positive side, it brought the fire season to a screeching halt; there are no large fires actively burning in our state.  The 3 “official” large fires are just smoldering and I see Umatilla National Forest has even started the regular fall prescribed burning.  Plus, we were set up for a really bad September west of the Cascades when the unusually dry conditions could have caused havoc with the seasonal arrival of hot easterly wind.  That didn’t happen and now the ground in the woods outside my home is somewhat moist.  Fire season is pretty much over.

Of course the other benefit was a very early start to summer meant an early end too.  Labor Day really was the end of the hot stuff, minus those two days mid-month in the 90s.

For the next two months, here is what the CFS shows:

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201510_w3

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201511_w3

Supposedly warmer than normal through November…we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen