ECMWF Monthly Run

You know the drill; hardcore weather geeks only beyond this point on this post…

Not TOO much different than what it was seeing a week ago.  Hints that the upper-level trough that has been nearby much of this month will shift a bit farther west around the 2nd week of October.  Not much change in the next two weeks though.  Looks like our cooler than normal September will continue the next 10 days.

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New info from here on out…looks like ensemble mean for precipitation (through the 18th of October) is around 2″, about 1″ on the control run…so a bit drier than normal and no obvious sign the wet season is about to begin.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. W7ENK says:

    Chilly-willy this morning!!

    40.1 overnight at my place, I almost thought I saw little hints of frost in some spots along my ride in to downtown. Chilly in the house, too. Methinks it’s time to clean out the vents and kick the heat on again? It’s been off since March.

    I guess it’s also time to start bringing my peppers in at night.

    Check this out:

    Can anyone identify this pepper plant?? I managed to grow two of them from seed this summer, they’re waist-high now. This ain’t Mexico, these aren’t even supposed to grow here — a testament to the hot and dry summer we’ve had. I’m hoping to winter them over indoors, with enough sunlight they’ll flower and fruit all year long!

  2. MasterNate says:

    Yes we need the rain and snow and all that will come soon enough but this weather is AWESOME! Cool crisp nights with beautiful mild days. This is my favorite time of year for being outside and getting stuff done. The seasons are just one reason I love the PNW.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Patchy frost here in the foothills this morning

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Hardcore weather geeks want winter weather!

  5. Joshua says:

    Man, we can’t seem to catch a break with the forecasts lately. What appears to be almost certain rain, and possibly a few days of it, has turned into possible passing showers likely amounting to a couple hundredths of an inch if we are fortunate. Also 3 out of the 7 days coming up are forecasted to be above normal temps. If this is our cool and troughy period, I hate to see our warm and dry period. Oh, that’s right, we have seen that since December. 46 degrees right now at PDX. Love that!

  6. schmit44 says:

    9/22/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft)
    Low: 59 at OWYHEE RIDGE(4400 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & ROWEWS(104 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160 ft)
    Low: 22 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    Lorella (84/30 ) (4160 ft )

  7. Prairie Dog says:

    41f this morning on Clear Creek near Fishers Mill (Estacada area). This afternoon/evening the temp dropped from 68f to 54f in a little over an hour at sunset. I love this time of year! As for the white flies, all I can say is that they make my bats very happy.

  8. Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

    Ok, this is from a post on previous blog…What the heck are those little white bugs? We were BBQing this weekend, and by the time we were ready to eat, I was full from eating bugs! What a year for flying critters! I had citronella candles burning, and the mosquitoes were actually requesting a seat by the candle light. It’s almost like they liked the bug candles!

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      They’re called whiteflies. I’ve lived in Portland for 50 years and never seen so many at one time before. Probably another by-product of our record-breaking summer:

      “Whiteflies develop rapidly in warm weather, and populations can build up quickly in situations where natural enemies are ineffective and when weather and host plants favor outbreaks.”

      http://www.ipm.ucdavis.edu/PMG/PESTNOTES/pn7401.html

      Maybe the cooler weather will knock ’em down…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Haven’t seen any of those, but plenty of these wandering about!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      I’ve actually seen a lot of white flies but not as many stink bugs this year as previous.

  9. Boring Oregon says:

    It was a chilly one last night. When I left for work it was 39° but the sun had already been up for awhile so I suppose it may have even got down to 38.

  10. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    41 here this morning. 62 and sunny now. Loving it!

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    For those of you who model ride some eye candy for around Oct 5th. The cola/grads 16 day gfs meteogram has a early season cold snap for the PNW with heights as low as 530 in Vancouver B.C and 540 at PDX. Dry though. Of course this is the same meteogram that had PDX with 2,69 inches of rain through the 2nd of October. So far none. The new run has PDX at .59 over the next 16 days. I remain skeptical. Pete Parsons OR Dept pf AG outlook for Oct-Dec has us warmer and drier than normal. I wish he would present at OMSI. Sunny and 66 at 1:00 PM. On our way to 72. Nick Allard at Noon Said Salem dropped into the low 40,s this morning. NWS site says our low was 46. Peace.

  12. () says:

    Of course….dry,dry,dry….The drought will continue….

  13. W7ENK says:

    44 degrees when I left the house, it was another chilly ride. Stung the hands and face at first. After 8-1/2 miles to downtown, I barely broke a sweat, and that’s even with long pants and three layers up top!

    • runrain says:

      Are you crossing the new bridge? I like the visual effect of no bridge railing they created with use of the cabling. The Elephants and Starbucks on the west end has some nice outdoor seating with a great view in warm weather.

    • W7ENK says:

      I crossed the new bridge on my way home last Friday simply because I could, but it adds almost another half mile to my route. Because of its orientation, it causes me to backtrack a bit. Also, the incline toward center-span is a pain in the butt! It’s much smaller than it looks when you’re actually on it, that was weird.

  14. 44F this morning, and it’s going to be sunny today. Nice weather to end off summer and begin Fall. It’s been a good month here- not too warm and normal precipitation.

    • David B. says:

      43 overnight here and bright sun already. Looks like another clear, crisp afternoon is on the way.

    • Cloudy but dry this morning. We’re forecasted to have a rainy couple of days ahead, then back to mostly sunny skies. Can’t help but remember this date back in 1986; Steady rain all day with winds and low barometric pressure. (got as low as 29.22 inches). A real autumn downpour. I measured 2.83 inches for my wettest September day on record.

  15. Paul D says:

    Below normal temperatures – music to my ears!!!

  16. Austin West Vancouver says:

    So when is this winter prediction thing at omsi going to take place mark? I want to win a weather station!!! Lol

  17. schmit44 says:

    9/21/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft) & DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft)
    Low: 64 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & BLALOK(277 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & Celilo – East of(225 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 22 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    Lorella (85/31 ) (4160 ft )
    CROW FLAT (76/22) (5172 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.14″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)
    0.14″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.13″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.13″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  18. Lee Wilson says:

    Well, Just our Luck, were getting second growth lettuce.
    the original plants went to seed and now we have a new batch of yummy lettuce.

    Were still getting some strawberries , but as the bees become fewer so to the berries.

    This year’s growing season has been a great one .
    Now we have some new thing popping up.. some strange and spooky things that is.

    I hope that we get some clearer weather along with cooler temps as I would like to see what our solar will pump out..

  19. janice says:

    Thanks!! For the look ahead!!

  20. leer` Geddy says:

    I just hope I don’t have too keep mowing my lawn thru the end of November again this year, geez.

  21. BlazerFan32 says:

    I’ll take the coolness for now. My kind of weather. I hope the model decides to be cooler by the 4th week on this run too. I surely had my share of hot weather or even above normal weather for temperatures already this year but I weathered it quite well. Even if there is a powerful El Nino I hope I get one good snow dump at least this winter. It has happened. Remember 97-98?

  22. timbers15 says:

    Interesting to see what’s next after October 18th. I am not surprised to to see that drier weather will stay with us for a while. At least until the end of October. Rain will come eventually in November and December. Maybe some snow just in time for Christmas.

  23. jimbo says:

    I be first

  24. Terri says:

    So when will it snow?!

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