12:30pm: Forecast Bust In Progress

I love it when (once in a great while) my forecast goes wrong like this!  A weak system off the southern Oregon coast is moving more slowly than anticipated which means 3 things at the noon hour:

  1. Showers have only made it into SW Oregon so far.  Radar is pretty much dry all across NW Oregon and SW Washington
  2. Most of the afternoon should be dry for most of us.  A few sprinkles show up around dinnertime or sunset, but it’s quite possible it won’t rain until after sunset.
  3. Temperatures are warmer than expected…around 70 degrees already with a light offshore wind (easterly).

Here’s the latest radar loop.


Now get outside and enjoy the nice day!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

44 Responses to 12:30pm: Forecast Bust In Progress

  1. catschmidt says:

    I LOVE it when you are “wrong” in our favor! Happy to see the sun after a few gloomy days.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Shower in progress. .36 so far today. Might get up to .5 before is said and done. Should help out with my flowers and lawn. Very nice weather on tap for this weekend, low 80,s which is about 3 degrees above normal but not too hot for most people. 16 day GFS meteogram has 2.46 of rain for PDX. Way overblown. They have been forecasting large amounts of rain since August that never materialize. But we should get some in that time frame. Maybe .50 in Portland and .33 in Eugene as we are slipping into a cooler and wetter pattern. Still a fair amount of warm dry weather yet to come. Enjoy the warm weekend, peace.

  3. W7ENK says:

    What a sucky bike commute this morning.

    • Joshua says:

      I got absolutely drenched walking to the Streetcar. It was right when the heavy stuff was overhead- 6:40 or so. I will happily get drenched though if it means we are actually getting rain.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Someday you’ll learn to enjoy it.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m a 4th generation native Oregonian, born with webbed feet, slappy tail and all, but I doubt I’ll ever enjoy riding in the rain.

  4. MasterNate says:

    .36″ in the bucket so far. Would be nice to double that by the end of the day.

  5. schmit44 says:

    9/16/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:76 at ECHO( 683 ft)
    Low: 57 at HEPP(311 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft) & BOARD(290 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft)

    High:34 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 20 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    Wasco Junction ( (73/44 ) (1100 ft )
    COLGATE (60/31) (3231 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.33″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.91″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    0.88″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)
    0.80″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.69″ at RSF WILDLAND FIR(4034ft)
    0.51″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)

  6. () says:

    Of course there was no rain. What else is new? Getting tired of this dry sunny weather.

  7. Joshua says:

    Look at the 7 day. Hint… you’re not going to like it. So much for that EMCF map Mark posted a couple days back showing this week as significantly below normal temps and troughy. Not a drop of rain yet and some temps (highs and lows) actually above average.

    • Joshua says:

      I meant for this to be in reply to Paul.

    • Paul D says:

      Total bummer! Summer is back after today. It needs to go away.

    • David B. says:

      75, 80, 78, 70, 75, 75. That’s significantly cooler than summer was. Forecast up this way is significantly cooler/wetter than that, but even for PDX it’s not forecast to be summer-warm.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      The new 7-day is not reflective of what the weather models are advertising. It is about 3-5 degrees too warm across the board.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’m happy with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s & 50’s. If we had that all summer I’d be happy as a clam. Of course, the heat lovers would whine quite epically.

  8. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    I think I’d blame it on the computers. Too much reliance on them in all facets of our lives. Oh, but wait! I’m relying on one now! Just shoot me 😉

  9. Paul D says:

    I was wondering what happened. So much for our rainiest day of the week. Bummer.

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    Hey nobody gets every forecast right. Mark is pretty darn good and he isn’t the only one who didn’t hit it spot on. But we should get some precip tonight. Maybe .1 to .25 inches. The sunshine did allow us to hit 70 today which was a surprise to me, albeit a welcome one. I would prefer to get our rain at night anyway. After Thursday morning the weather looks nice for the next week or so (yes I know we need the rain), mainly dry and 74-82. Warm but not hot. Perfect way to end Summer. Mid range forecast (16) days calls for no big soaking but some precip and normal temps (74-82). So it looks like no more hot weather for 2015. Just a slow slide into Autumn. Great evening for a walk. I hope the rain holds of till at least 10:00 PM. After that a good soaking would be welcome. I want to thank all on this blog who have said nice things about me. As for the others I hold no grudges and just wish they would act in a more adult manner. I don;t however mind a polite criticism. Any post on this blog is fair game, including Mark’s. We just need to remember that while we can disagree with another posters viewpoint there is no need for vile language, insulting remarks, or personal digs. I try not to fall into this trap but occasionally fail. I shall continue to post my views on the weather and hope all others will do the same. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Godspeed Dan. Godspeed.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Don’t let them get you down Dan you have had great weather this summer! I have brought three sets of clients up from Texas to do some salmon fishing over the last month. I know work is tough! Absolutely great weather the rain crap will be with you soon enough!

  11. catku pdx says:

    I used to dream of living in the great drizzly, rainy, cloudy PNW; now I do and I yearn to return to where I came from. I never bargained for Phoenix/Las Vegas weather, but that’s been the reality here in PDX for quite awhile. Sob.

  12. Sapo says:

    Ya, I checked radar and satellite this morning and was like “wait, where’s the rain?” Anyway, I truly hope we get a small soaking after sunset, those salmon need to move into the rivers lol!! Looks like a more showery pattern next week and beyond…

  13. janice says:

    It’s OK to be a little off sometimes!! That’s what makes us human! ! Better days ahead!

  14. W7ENK says:

    Not helping the drought situation any, but I appreciate it. I wasn’t particularly looking forward to riding in the rain today.

    • runrain says:

      I blame it on the dome. Sometimes I think it likes to flex its disruptive muscles just so we are reminded it’s there.

    • Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

      I think Blob and Dome have joined together to be the most disruptive kids in the weather classroom! You want a storm? HEH HEH! …as they throw spit wads and paper airplanes at the chalkboard while Mark is forecasting rain.

    • W7ENK says:

      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Blame it on The Dome ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Blame it on the stars ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Whatever you do ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Don’t put the blame on you ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Blame it on The Dome, yeah yeah ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ You can blame it on The Dome ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩

      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Ooh, ooh (ooh) ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ I can’t, I can’t. I can’t stand The Dome ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ I can’t, I can’t. I can’t stand The Dome ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩
      ♩ ♪ ♫ ♬ Yeah, yeah ♬ ♫ ♪ ♩

      Hey Garron, after last winter, I’ll gladly take spit wads! Closest thing to snowflakes I’ve seen in coming up on 2 years now… :-/

    • gidrons says:


  15. Pj Turpin says:

    If “bust” means “no soaking rain” – then I fail to see that as good! We need rain MUCH more than nice weather right now…..

  16. runrain says:

    I think you did it on purpose (forecast bust) so we would all be pleasantly surprised with our nice Wednesday – ha!

  17. schmit44 says:

    68 degrees and quite breezy here at Battle Ground Lake with some sunshine.

  18. Eugene Dave says:

    This is not a good bust for the southern valley.

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