ECMWF Weekly Maps: Warm Weather Is Toast?

4pm Monday…

Last night’s run of the ECMWF and its ensembles out to 32 days shows a cool upper-level trough lingering overhead the rest of the month.  It’s looking like September 2015 may be the first month with below normal temps since last November!  This will also finish off the fire season as well if the trend continues to be cooler/wetter than normal.  That said, after the hottest summer on record around here it’s time to even things out a bit.  Here are weeks 1-3:




And week 4 which looks a bit more seasonal for early-mid October:


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

35 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps: Warm Weather Is Toast?

  1. W7ENK says:

    Why can’t we ever seem to get this…

    …during winter around here???

  2. David B. says:

    Despite stratus forming, it still got down to 45 overnight. Now 47. Another morning of turning the heat on. Soon to be a regular routine.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Another light dusting of snow on the mtn.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Need and want mountain snow. I’d love a lot here in the foothills too, not so sure about you flat landers in the valley, it really seems to cause big problems!😆

  5. Mark bergal: I don’t live in Portland, but I can give you at least some idea what the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were like. We did have cool weather periods at times in both, though overall they were milder than normal. (especially the latter). Don’t discount entirely the chance of snow on the low elevations(near sea level) . I saw snowfalls here in Vancouver in January 1998. !982-83’s event saw fairly heavy rainfall in January and February. Every el Nino is different , however. So expect a surprise or two.

    • David B. says:

      ’97-’98 if I recall correctly actually had above average precipitation. More recently, 2009 had a significant, albeit dry, arctic blast (and a surprise snow event a week or two after the blast ended).

      I think the points to keep in mind at this point are (a) El Niño winters aren’t always total busts for interesting weather, and (b) last winter sucked so bad in that regard* that the odds are this one will be significantly more interesting, despite El Niño.

      Yes, yes: there were a couple of early arctic blasts for those of us significantly to Portland’s north. Neither came with much snow, and the winter from then on was basically one giant suck-fest.

  6. Love this cool stuff Mark. Hope it keeps coming on into the PNW here. I am down to 47 at 2:55 AM.

    I am also glad that it is the ECMWF forecasting it too. 😀

  7. Jake-(Gresham) says:


  8. Jake-(Gresham) says:


    Currently 57F here and still very very, very much not cold enough.

    Pulls out freeze ray gun

    It’s just a squirt gun.

    Face plant into keyboard

  9. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Can we just skip Fall please? Ready for a snowstorm nay a blizzard, preferably one that lasts off and on for 2 weeks.

    Tired of these stinken heatwaves!

  10. schmit44 says:

    9/14/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:82 at Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 61 at Rome(4049 ft)

    High:48 at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370 ft)
    Low: 22 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (66/31 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.62″ at SUMMIT(6113ft)
    0.60″ at BIGELOW CAMP(5130ft)
    0.60″ at FISH CREEK(7660ft)
    0.60″ at SANTIAM JCT.(3740ft)
    0.60″ at STRAWBERRY(5770ft)
    0.53″ at MOON HILL(6100ft)
    0.50″ at COFFEE POT FLAT(5206ft)
    0.50″ at ANEROID LAKE #2(7400ft)
    0.50″ at HOLLAND MEADOWS(4930ft)
    0.49″ at ELK CREEK(6576ft)
    0.44″ at LITTLE MCCOY CRE(5080ft)
    0.42″ at STRAWBERRY(5590ft)

  11. Boring Oregon says:

    Only hit 59 here today. That’s the first day below 60 for a LONG time.

  12. Well I guess I can kiss goodbye the prospect of a 58-59 degree year at DLS airport. But we could still beat the annual record from 1967 (57.0 degrees) if Oct-Dec comes out warmer than normal.

    Still….if you combine the 2nd half of 2014 with the 1st half of 2015 and ignore the November cold snap, you get a very “Mediterranean-like” temperature regime for the 12-month period as a whole. Pretty much what Nor-Cal experiences in a normal year.

  13. Paul D says:

    Yes!! Even things out! Bring on the lower than normal temperatures!

  14. WEATHERDAN says:

    Really depressing. But then models can and are often wrong. Peace.

  15. leer` Geddy says:

    Too bad this isn’t the pattern will be seeing this winter but for now ill enjoy it.

    • Mark bergal says:

      How does anybody know this isnt our winter weather pattern? You make it sound like its a done deal.

    • leer` Geddy says:

      Nobody knows but it’s unlikely with El nino’s, warmer and dryer then normal is the likely scenario, with exceptions here and there of course.

      • Mark bergal says:

        What were winters like here during the really strong el nino winters??1982-83 and 97-98 come to mind. Who has that data. If you want even a rough idea, yiu need to examine the strongest of events

  16. MasterNate says:


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