Hot Afternoon Ahead

10am Friday…

Looks like the well-advertised one day of heat is here.  Enjoy because we’re going from August (today and Saturday) to October (Monday) in just a couple of days!  Something for everyone this time around.  Or, the way things go around here, everyone can complain; but at different times.

I feel good about our 94 degree forecast today for several reasons:

  • 850mb temperature (5,000′ temperature) is +23 over Salem this morning, about what models forecast, maybe a degree or so warmer.  +24 is very rare in September, notice that is the maximum observed after the first few days of the month

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  • Full sunshine today, minus a bit of smoke from California fires overhead.
  • And, the biggie, offshore flow is a bit stronger than I expected…3-4 millibars through the Columbia River Gorge this morning.  Corbett has gusted to 32 mph and Vista House to 44 mph.  Not sure what I was thinking forecasting east wind 10-15 mph.  That east wind season is almost here.

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These 3 factors mean a (2-6pm) scorcher today…stay cool!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

64 Responses to Hot Afternoon Ahead

  1. Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

    Dr. Jeff Masters posted a really intelligent article about El Nino’s influence combined with the warm blob off our coast. In the second paragraph, you can click on a sub article on the blob’s life expectancy. It’s going to be a great couple of days for reading about our upcoming winter, as 58 degree wind driven rain falls outside!

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3109

  2. vernonia1 says:

    Weather Sunday was awesome! The ride on the Jet Boat was awesome too. Thought it might get cold when we were soaked but all was well. 60’s & rain…..hoping some will head towards the fires.

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    65 and partly sunny at 12:30 PM. No rain yet this month this month so far but that should change on Wednesday. NWS calling for .1-.25 possible but I think maybe up to .33. Then drying out by Friday and warming up to around 80 by the weekend. This upcoming weekend will be Oktoberfest in Mt. Angel so they are hoping for nice weather. So since it is mid September I thought I would do something really stupid and actually post a Winter forecast. So here goes. Rest of September, fairly cool with 4 or 5 more days over 80 and total monthly rain of 1.5 inches. October, briefly warm for the first 10 days or so then cooler than normal with lots of cloudy showery days. Temp near normal and precip 3.0 inches. November, rainy and cool with a fair amount of snow at the ski resorts. Temps slightly cooler than normal, precip of 5.5 inches. December, 1 minor snow event of 1-2 inches lasting 1 day otherwise temps slightly above normal. Precip 4.0 inches. Ski resort snow average. January, warmer than average with 1 atmospheric river event and little new snow in the mountains. Precip of 3.5 inches. February 1 minor snow event of trace to 1 inch with brief cold snap of 2 or 3 days. Then lots of ridging and mild temps. Precip 2.0 inches with less than average snow depths in mountains. And March. Temps much warmer than average with only around 1.0 inches of precip. Government will be warning of severe drought and bad fire season approaching. Now we only have to wait a few months to see how foolish I was to make this forecast. Next Summer will be hot again but not record heat. Very warm nights. Around 80 days over 80, down 15-20 from 2015. around 20 days over 90, down around 10 days from this year. Peace.

  4. W7ENK says:

    Disappeared deep into the White River canyon over the weekend, Saturday was HOT, even down under all the trees next to the water. The vine maples are starting to turn, and with the lower sun angle the woods looked like they were on fire in spots, it was quite beautiful.

    Warm overnight Saturday night with lots of stars.

    Woke up to clear skies and sunshine Sunday morning, expected to see high clouds already streaming in, but those didn’t appear until sometime after noon. The wind started whipping up just as we were driving back out, gusts probably over 30 mph at the treetops. Every now and then one would swoop down and whip up a bunch of dust on the road.

    Driving back West last evening, the white sun fading behind a steel gray wall of high clouds, it looked like winter approaching.

  5. Paul D says:

    Rain in Hillsboro! Amazing 🙂

  6. Developpdx@aol.com says:

    Can’t wait to see Mark’s data he said he would post this week on El Niño/pdo vs portland snowfall. He said it was interesting data.

  7. schmit44 says:

    9/13/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft)
    Low: 72 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:57 at TIDEWATER(2035 ft)
    Low: 31 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft ) & CROW FLAT (5172 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft ) & IRAWS 40 (PUMICE (5956 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (87/31 ) (4531 ft )

  8. David B. says:

    63 for the high here today. Now 58 and falling. Drizzle went on past noon and the overcast didn’t break up until 3:00 PM.

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    80 at 3:30 PM. That is #92 on the Summer. 2 shy of the record of 94 set last year. 50/50 that we see another day above 80 this year. 2 more at most. As far as days up to at least 80 probably no more than 8. 6 the rest of the month and maybe 2 in early October. Some would like to hurry up with Autumn but nature has it’s own schedule. Over the next 16 days GFS meteogram has PDX with 3.06 inches of rain, but EUG with only .64. Last go around same site had PDX with 3.69 and they got .77. I think about .33 is likely this time. Friend of mine almost had an encounter with a skunk outside the High Desert Museum yesterday. I think it must be the drought because when I was over there in August I saw several skunks in the High Desert. Peace.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      That should have been 50/50 chance over 90. Mea Culpa. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I live on the dry canyon in Redmond. I will tell you that the skunk problem around here is pretty bad. Half the nights I can smell them and occasionally ill see them in and around my garage. My neighbor would love to shoot em if we weren’t in city limits in sure he would. Been like this since I’ve lived over here (5 years).

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Shoot them anyway.

  10. Pretty stiff westerly breeze has been blowing here ever since early morning. Peak gusts of up to 30 mph or so. I hope it doesn’t get stronger.

  11. vernonia1 says:

    10 of us riding the Jet Boat in PDX today. Wanted another HOT day….hmmmmm take a jacket & dry clothes LOL

  12. David B. says:

    Overcast and showery here this morning. Back to cloudy and damp (for a while).

  13. schmit44 says:

    9/12/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:101 at EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft)
    Low: 71 at LITTLE MCCOY CRE(5080 ft) & RIDDLE MTN.(6352 ft) & OR 140 @ Nevada(6229 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at YACHTS Yachats(72 ft)
    Low: 35 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (99/42 ) (3020 ft )

  14. David B. says:

    Topped out at 77 today, so my prediction from a couple weeks ago held. I’m right now enjoying how last months’ rains have prompted the chanterelles to come up 🙂 .

  15. schmit44 says:

    Only 10 times in PDX history have we seen 20 or more days reach 90 in a year. 2015 breaks the old record by 5 days since we reached 90 last hour.

  16. schmit44 says:

    Today is day #82 this year where PDX has reached at least 80°. We need just 3 more days now to reach the all-time record.

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    90 at 3:45 PM. That is number 30 on the year. Record is 35 set in 2014. #2 is 34 in 1958, and #3 is 31 in 1967. Probably no more than 2 more this Summer, so no new record. Today is the 92nd day over 80. Record is 94 in 2014 so we ought to break that record. Not looking as wet for Wednesday now, still maybe ,33 though. Peace.

  18. David B. says:

    75 for a high here yesterday. 73 right now today, that’s a very warm noontime temperature for me. So I might have been wrong earlier and there may be one more 80+ degree day this year here after all. Time will soon tell.

  19. StormyClimate says:

    I think it could still hit 100 in the dome.

  20. StormyClimate says:

    Yep the last hurrah will probably still pump out another 90 spot at PDX. Heck, it might even make it to 100 inside that dome and we all know why that may actually happen. 🙂

  21. schmit44 says:

    9/11/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:105 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 73 at BALD KNOB(3630 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(72 ft)
    Low: 28 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 61 degrees
    CROW FLAT (89/28 ) (5172 ft )

  22. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    High temp of 93.5° at my place today. Nice call, Mark!

    • leer` Geddy says:

      Joe bastardi also has a very warm and dry winter for the PNW as well with only 25% of normal snowfall.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, that’s wonderful news! Joe Bastardi is always, and I do mean ALWAYS wrong when it comes to his PNW forecasts.

      Always. 😀

    • Paul D says:

      25% of normal snowfall would be about 15% more than last year.

    • Mark Bergal says:

      With an en nino so strong, what if it extended up our way and combined with arctic fronts to give us an abnormal amount of snow. Has anybody thought about that, rather than the opposite. No two events are alike. Maybe this one has a different vibe.

    • MasterNate says:

      It has to be better than last winter, even if we are below normal. I would take 50% snowpack over what we had a year ago. Has there been any El Nino year with less than 50% snowpack??

    • StormyClimate says:

      Obviously Joe Bastardi never reads the Old Farmers Almanac. They said it is supposed to be cold and snowy in the PNW in December, January, and February. Who are we supposed to believe when it comes to long range forecasting really?

    • StormyClimate says:

      One thing we can all probably bet our money on safely though is that it wont snow even a flake in Milwaukie this coming winter with a strong El Nino around. 😀

    • leer` Geddy says:

      I well say this guys the man knows his stuff he nailed the past winter/spring/summer outlook so there’s no doubt in my mind that Joe is right about the upcoming winter forecast, and yes I hope he’s wrong for our sake.

    • We can jump to a lot of conclusions about what kind of winter it will be. I’ll never forget the winter of 1980-81: (a non-El Nino winter, if I’m correct). The first week of December 1980, we saw a big arctic outbreak with over a foot of snow. After that- it was very mild for the rest of the winter.

  23. W7ENK says:

    High clouds and filtered sunshine over PDX metro at Noon.

    –5 for a high of 89° today.

    PDX doesn’t see 90 again in 2015.

  24. Looks like the “last hurrah’ is coming a bit earlier than last year.

  25. W7ENK says:

    Summer’s last hurrah…

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