2 Hot Days Ahead

11pm Wednesday…

I’ve been busy for differing reasons this week, so a bit negligent posting.

MarkHeadlines_Summer1

It’s pretty obvious Friday is going to be a September scorcher because:

  1. 850mb temps around +23 (very close to the September maximum)
  2. Light easterly flow, 2-3 millibars gradient through the Gorge
  3. Totally sunny skies

But it won’t last long as weak onshore flow returns Saturday, then a much stronger push for low clouds to sunshine Sunday. We have a 94 degree day in our 7 day forecast and a couple 65 degree days with clouds/showers too…something for everyone.  As a result I don’t want to hear any whining in the next week.  Take a look at the August to October drop in the 850mb temp on the fresh GFS ensemble chart!

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

I spent quite a bit of time this evening (between working all 6 evening shows!) looking at El Nino/PDO numbers vs. Cascade and Portland snowfall.  Some interesting data.  I’ll be doing a post on that within the next week.

21 Responses to 2 Hot Days Ahead

  1. Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

    I can’t wait for big daddy Mark’s next bed time story about his winter outlook! Like a kid waiting to open their presents, I am excited. This blog, truly is the gift that just keeps on giving. Oh, I guess I’m not a big fan of whining either, while I understand why people do it. I’m more of a beer fan, lol maybe that’s why I like the hotter weather? Mark, can you do a little more research? Do wine lovers’ whine more during hot weather, and beer lovers’ whine more during cooler weather?

    • Paul D says:

      I don’t drink wine nor beer, and I whine. Guess that shoots down your theory 🙂

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I enjoy a good beer, gone are the days of cheap beer, I go for taste. I’ve worked for Mt. Hood Brewery in Govy and scored 2 free growlers of their Porter micro brew after getting their well pump going. I do enjoy a little wine.

    • Garron, I found the “weatherspark” data to be very intresting, but I’m puzzled by the one on “greatest snowfall depth when there is snow on the ground.” November 13th?? Seems too early to me, anyway…

    • I like whiskey. Great with everything. Lightning? Nice glass of whiskey. Hot summer day? Nice glass of whiskey. Cold snowstorm? Nice glass of whiskey. You get the idea.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Garron I was thinking the same thing. I can’t wait for Marks thoughts and/or data analysis on this upcoming winter. He’s never really done one and I can see why he doesn’t. Super string el Nino or super strong la Nina and the opposite can still happen than what is typical for that year. Hence why he doesn’t give a winter forecast at the omsi meeting every year, but this is a blog where he can go a little more out of the realm so to speak. So I for one am intrigued for what he has to say. Mark, you are the one and only that I truly listen to when it comes to weather, everyone else is secondary. Rob sometimes too though, he is a really optimistic blogger, always fun to hear his thoughts.

  2. melissa meacham says:

    where is the rain we are supose to have

    • Huh? Rain isn’t forecast til next week

    • Garron (1/3 of a mile from the Hillsboro airport) says:

      Melissa, I find this site pretty useful. According to this graph if you scroll down to the precipitation graphic, and at this point in September we are as likely to see rain on this date as mid July. (We’re at the bottom of the odds chart, but gradually creeping back up) You’ll see that we rapidly increase our odds of seeing rain by October 1st, and by the end of October, we are reaching the peak of odds favoring rain at some point during the day…It’s no secret here in the PNW, that fall is our second summer, even when we don’t get a real summer some years!

      https://weatherspark.com/averages/31237/Portland-Oregon-United-States

  3. Paul D says:

    Actually that should say “three hot days ahead” because 88 is hot.

  4. Paul D says:

    Whine!

  5. Almost every September I’ve observed has had a warm (or hot) spell in it. However, I don’t see the sunny dry spells last very long in recent years. (September 2012 was my recent example).I can recall a few Septembers years back that were better than the summer months before them- like in 1991,1993 and 1995.

  6. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Always fascinating to see all the people who hate the “heat”. Never once have I lived with A/C and I’m bummed summer is coming to an end.

  7. Eugene Dave says:

    “…As a result I don’t want to hear any whining in the next week…”

    Bwaahahahahhaha. Good one. Have you read the blog comments before? 🙂

  8. Enjoy the heat while we can.

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