10pm Update: Storm Arrival Speeds Up a Bit

Batten down the hatches (as they say) along the coastline.  The strongest storm I’ve ever seen in the summer is still developing this evening and will be just offshore Tillamook/Astoria by sunrise.  At that point winds will ramp up rapidly.

What’s new this evening?

  1. GFS model (not always a stellar performer) has the low slightly farther offshore.  That would imply lighter wind than what I forecast in the previous post.
  2. Other models (WRF-GFS, RPM, HRRR, & NAM)are deeper (stronger) and closer with the low pressure center skimming by just offshore Astoria.  These show a huge windstorm for August along the central/north coast by 8-10am.
  3. NWS in their evening discussion notes the central pressure is a bit deeper than expected so far…that’s not good if you want to avoid a big windstorm.
  4. All are a bit faster on the low movement.  Strong wind arrives at the beaches by 7-8am and shortly after in the valleys.

Here is the 00z RPM

RPM_12KM_Wind_NWOR_Strong

and HRRR:

HRRR_WindGusts

So the forecast stays the same, although I did bump up north coast wind speeds.  Gusts 65-75 mph Pacific City to Long Beach.  I would strongly suggest getting any object that isn’t permanently embedded in concrete off the beach tonight.

If the stronger solutions are correct and we get gusts in the 40-50 mph range in the metro area, there is going to be quite a bit of damage.  We’ll hope it says in the 35-40 mph range.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

39 Responses to 10pm Update: Storm Arrival Speeds Up a Bit

  1. Jason Hougak says:

    Infrared satellite image shows a tight low curling up. Definitely looks like a wind producer for us.

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Nice rain squalls last night, woke me up. Glad I cleaned the roof and gutters yesterday. This is the lull before the storm. Everybody should get prepared.

  3. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    So after a very restless night, monsoons and lightning, I finally get up and my yard is completely covered in fir needles and the trees look empty. Strange site. I didn’t realize how many dead needles were on the trees apparently. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this many fir needles on the ground during any other wind event that we’ve had. You can’t even walk outside they are coming down so thick.

  4. MasterNate says:

    Only .16 of rain here but had a nice 40 mph gust so far.

  5. No thunder heard here yet, but it has been pouring for the past hour. I think we have a record low barometric pressure for August: 29.48 inches around 7am (but presently rising). The previous low was 29.55 back in August 1991.

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    High Wind Warning just verified at Newport:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=ONP&num=48

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    0.31″ of rain so far. Peak wind of 23 mph

  8. Longview 400 ft says:

    It looks as if more is on the way, according the radar.

  9. Boring Oregon says:

    The heavy rain just woke me up. Then a quick flash and some thunder. Fun stuff

  10. Longview 400 ft says:

    We are getting it now. Why does the thunder sound, hollow, or like instead in a tin can? The weirdest I have ever heard. Finally some heavy rain!!!!!!

    • I am on Columbia Heights it is rolling up here! Wow! The noise is crazy! I heard or saw none until about 15 minutes ago! I love it! Gonna be a fun day! If this is the starting! Toto we are not in Kansas! They just quieted down!

    • Longview 400 ft says:

      Yes, very bizarre sounding storm. I would like to know why. At one time it sounded like a pressure cooker going off but at huge level. Maybe one of the mills was hit? What a day or early morning so far Emily.

    • Cowlitz County News a FB site has people says possible tornado or a steam vent blewat Weyco as the storm rumbled about 4am! I don’t know can anyone verify?

  11. leer` Geddy says:

    Nws seattle has wind advisory for Puget sound but base on tonight uw 00zgfs winds look much weaker then previous runs I assume nws will cancel later tonight or in the morning for seattle, have fun pdx with your wind event u guys got lucky this time, lol.

    • leer` Geddy says:

      One a finale note the 00zgfs ensembles bring back the 80’s for pdx and seattle around the 10th, summer will return again, seattle already broke the previous record of 80+ days currently 49 days, old record is 47 in 1958 we should smash it when all said and done.

  12. Longview 400 ft says:

    Lightning to the east, several strikes, could barely hear the thunder.

  13. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Fortunately the peak winds at the beaches will occur during a low tide tomorrow morning, so that should help the Hood To Coast contingent. With those winds gusts it will still be a mess at the finish line, though.

  14. Nice early start to windstorm season 🙂

  15. schmit44 says:

    8/28/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at Rye Valley(I-84(2229 ft)
    Low: 74 at John Day River B(305 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:63 at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110 ft)
    Low: 36 at IRAWS 48 (LOGAN (4984 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    84/36 at IRAWS 48 (LOGAN(4984ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.44″ at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128ft)
    0.43″ at EW1556 Maupin(1910ft)
    0.39″ at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89ft)
    0.38″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.32″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.31″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)

  16. Mark says:

    Born in 1970 at Good Sam, and lived in the Beaverton area all my life. Mark points out that not since 1972 has their been a storm like this, and certainly, nothing that I can come close to remembering – for August! Wow. Thanks Mark for the update

  17. BoringOregon says:

    Dang can we Finally talk about Something here! I think the hood to coast should take down all the tents at Seaside?

  18. pappoose in scappoose says:

    They do say that!

    NWS now suggesting gusts possible to 50.

    WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH.

  19. JERAT416 says:

    Dang, this summer just keeps getting weirder and more historic! We shall see what happens! I’ll be the statistics on the blog viewing just jumped up on the graph!

  20. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    That is insane in August! Especially after such a hot/dry summer!

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