Batten down the hatches (as they say) along the coastline. The strongest storm I’ve ever seen in the summer is still developing this evening and will be just offshore Tillamook/Astoria by sunrise. At that point winds will ramp up rapidly.
What’s new this evening?
- GFS model (not always a stellar performer) has the low slightly farther offshore. That would imply lighter wind than what I forecast in the previous post.
- Other models (WRF-GFS, RPM, HRRR, & NAM)are deeper (stronger) and closer with the low pressure center skimming by just offshore Astoria. These show a huge windstorm for August along the central/north coast by 8-10am.
- NWS in their evening discussion notes the central pressure is a bit deeper than expected so far…that’s not good if you want to avoid a big windstorm.
- All are a bit faster on the low movement. Strong wind arrives at the beaches by 7-8am and shortly after in the valleys.
Here is the 00z RPM
So the forecast stays the same, although I did bump up north coast wind speeds. Gusts 65-75 mph Pacific City to Long Beach. I would strongly suggest getting any object that isn’t permanently embedded in concrete off the beach tonight.
If the stronger solutions are correct and we get gusts in the 40-50 mph range in the metro area, there is going to be quite a bit of damage. We’ll hope it says in the 35-40 mph range.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen