Soaking Rains Likely: After An Incredibly Dry Summer

August 25, 2015

11pm Tuesday…

There’s good news…it’s looking more likely that we actually have a soaking coming this weekend.  Check out the latest numbers from several different models.

MarkRain_ModelForecasts

Looks wet doesn’t it?  We need it.  There is a very good chance this will be our wettest period since back in April & May. Check out the rain totals IN THE PAST 12 WEEKS!

MarkSummerRain_ManyCities

Hard to believe we’ve seen less than 1/2 inch of rain in some parts of the metro area in the past 3 months!  May was unusually dry too of course and that’s why our trees/shrubs are suffering.

Confidence has gone up now with a good soaking late Friday through the weekend.  Very high precipitable water content, around 1.00-1.50″ will ensure plenty of moisture to work with as a cold front moves across the area Friday night.  Then several more waves of rain & showers continue through Sunday.  The WRF-GFS is especially wet, showing widespread 1.20″ and above over western Oregon with some areas getting more than 2.00″,

or_pcp72.144.0000

Seems unlikely, but history tells us it CAN happen in August.  Late August 1977, 1983, 2004, etc… those were all big soakers.

It’s nice to be able to leave things outside for weeks at a time and not worry about them getting wet, but that will end early Friday…showers may show up as early as commute time Friday evening.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen