Some Rain, But Heat Will Return

10pm Friday…

Well, it rained today, but not much

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

A heavy shower passed over PDX around 6:30pm, dumping .10″ in the gauge.  Other than that just a few scattered heavy showers.  It’s amazing that we’ve only seen about an inch of rain in the past 10 weeks!

summer rain

The main action headed north today, with widespread 1/2 to 1 inch totals up in Puget Sound.

The upper low has moved off to the northeast so now we are back to warming temperatures this weekend and early next week.

Surprise!  The 7 Day forecast numbers are moving uphill again and it’s looking like hot weather returns for at least Tuesday/Wednesday next week.  The pattern this coming week is similar to what we saw much of last winter with a big upper-level ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and northwesterly flow over us.  You can see it in the ensemble averages for later next week:

gfs

the ECMWF:

ecmwf

The problem with models the past few days is what we saw last winter too.  Occasionally they have been showing a deep trough coming down the back side of the ridge and over us.  Instead the ridge nudges a bit closer.  Thus a warmer (hot) forecast for a good chunk of next week.

GFS this evening would imply high temperatures into the mid 90s next Tuesday and Wednesday.  ECMWF (as of this morning) not quite as warm.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

29 Responses to Some Rain, But Heat Will Return

  1. W7ENK says:

    Not a single drop of rain fell at my place in Milwaukie on Friday. I sat out back beside my empty firepit watching the sky all evening waiting for something to happen. Around 6:30 or so I watched as big black clouds rolled in overhead and a thick curtain of rain skirted by just to my North, illuminated by the lowering sun. I could smell the rain, and I could feel the temperature drop, but alas, not one drop fell in my neighborhood… couldn’t have missed me by more than a half mile.

  2. David B. says:

    No rain and a high of 72 here today. First 70+ temperature since Thursday, and still refreshingly cool compared to what’s been the norm this year.

    I’m rooting for a nice rainy spell (generalized, this time, with everyone sharing in the goods) towards the end of the month. Would do a good job of getting the mushroom season started.

  3. MasterNate says:

    I know its long range and more than 10 days out but I do like seeing some serious rain fall in the long range models. I haven’t seen this for some time. Also heard talk from other trusted sources that this big ridge may move west at the end of the month allowing systems to drop over the top right into the PNW! One can dream.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    I’ll take 90 days below 32F

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    During my 61 years on Earth all of them in Oregon I have seen many sh oh excuse me crummy Summers. In 1976 we only had two days over 90 with a Summer maximum of 93. In August of 1968 we had over 6 inches of rain and one day had a maximum of 59. Between 1962-1965 we had four consecutive wet cool Summers. As recently as 2010 and 2011 this blog was filled with many of you complaining about Juneuary and our bummer Summer. So if it is too warm for some I do feel empathy for you. I know some of you must not do well with the heat but I love it. The endless warm sunny days and starlit mild nights are exactly what I want out of a Summer. And for those of you that can’t wait for the rainy season to begin, well sooner or later you will get your wish. The 16 hour nights, endless days of foggy, cloudy and rainy weather will soon be upon us. The foggy inversions and fake cold that sends the electricity and gas bills soaring, the car batteries that die from Winters cold, and the East and South wind driven power outages that we all expect every Winter will soon be back. In the meantime I will go to the ballpark have a beer and a hotdog and cheer on the Volcanoes. I will go swimming to cool off and host Bar-b-cues for my friends. I will watch glorious sunrises and sunsets and enjoy all of the flowers in bloom. I can’t get enough of Summer. When Winter comes and it will soon enough I will hope for a snowstorm just like the rest of us. A white Christmas would be nice. I will enjoy all of the changing of the leaves from green to yellow and orange and red. But until then I will revel in our wonderful hot and dry Summer weather. I don’t find it boring. I find it eminently enjoyable. I will remember today on that early January day when the rain beats on the window of my office and the sky is almost dark at 3:30 PM in the afternoon. When the temperature is a balmy 43 degrees with a windchill of 35. I hope all of you who complain about all of this warm sunny weather remember this day too. Now I am not writing this to berate anyone so please no snarky comments from anyone. Just a plea to accept that the weather is what it is and change always comes. So just relax and wait a little while and that which you seek will be here. Peace.

  6. JohnD says:

    I was up there too yesterday–Mt. Defiance summit hike. Great stuff! I have the same feeling about this year’s forthcoming El Niño edition. Anything goes! Should be fun.

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    What an awesome autumn like day in the Cascades yesterday on a hike to several high lakes. The temperature was 50F to start with a fresh rain and some low clouds. Gave way to some sun as we reached the lake. Had a steady cool breeze all day. The Vine Maple are already turning amazing color most likely due to the dry summer.
    Looked and felt like late September. Ventured to 3 other lakes before ending the loop back at the trailhead. Temperature was again at 50F at 4600′. Dropping down the hill to 2,000′ and it was a balmy 62F. I’m getting a feeling that this winter is a major wildcard. With the potential for a record El Niño and that stubborn Pacific Blob off our coast, winter this year will hopefully surprise us all.

  8. schmit44 says:

    8/15/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:92 at EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & Medford, Rogue V(1329 ft)
    Low: 68 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370 ft)
    Low: 25 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft ) & IRAWS 40 (PUMICE (5956 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (82/28 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.24″ at CW6318 Welches(1283ft)

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    How much rain did Salem get out of this ULL? Zip, zilch, nada, nothing. Over the last 74 days we have received exactly .01. Next Saturday will set a new record for the driest 80 day stretch is Salem’s 123 years of weather records. In 1967 we had 79 days consecutive without measurable rainfall then we had .08 on day 80. If we make it until September 1 without any rain we will have had just that .01 in 90 days. Some trees and shrubs are already dying, They won’t recover. Others are stressed to the point of dropping leaves but will recover. The next two weeks, basically the rest of August look to be dry and 86-94. A record setting could be ominous. It very could well mean a lot of extreme weather for some people. But does it always mean just warm and dry for us? No. in January of 1998 during a record setting El Nino Portland had a big snowstorm of 10 inches followed by ZR. 1968-1968 and 1972-1973 were El Nino Winters and were very cold and snowy. However the odds favor warm and dry for us this Winter. Either way it should be a very interesting OMSI weather conference in October. 70 and partly cloudy at 11:30 AM. On our way to 80. Peace.

    • Weatherdan, you raise an intresting point about El Nino winters. I first heard about El Nino following the 1972-73 winter, which was a fairly cold one, though not like 1968-69 here. I can also think of a more recent El Nino winter (2006-07) that had some good snowfalls and low temperatures in Vancouver. Conversely, there have been La Nina winters that were relatively mild as well. (1998-99 comes to mind).

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Remember 1998-1999 winter was the King of Winters for the Cascades! Timberline pushed over a 300″ base, that’s a snowpack on the ground. Paradise had over 1,000″ and Mt Baker had the world record of over 1,140″!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Those 1,000″ plus are totals for the season FYI.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Unfortunately 1998-1999 was a La Nina Winter and we are in an El Nino. We are likely in for another sparse snowpack in the Cascades this Winter. Maybe even as bad as last Winter. However several times in past El Nino Winters we have had a major cold spell with an accompanying snowstorm, even though the rest of the Winter was mild. So it could happen again. Here is partial list of some mild Winters with 1 cold spell and a snowstorm 58-59, 67-68, 72-73, 77-78, 83-84, 89-90, 97-98, 01-02, 09-10. So I would say Jason the odds are about 50/50 that we will; have a cold event in an otherwise mild Winter, Peace.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I know 98-99 was a La Niña winter I lived at the mountain, loved every minute of it.

  10. paulbeugene says:

    Impressive thunderstorm in Glacier Park last night. There was CONSTANT lightning, have not seen anything like it, with strong smell of ozone in the air

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Those Rocky Mt. storms are really quite something, 10 days ago I was camping near Yellowstone at M-K camp on Rock Creek in Montana at around 7000 ft. and we had spectacular lightning and thunderstorms each night with minor flash flooding. No doubt in my mind that this was the ancient spirit of young Chief Joseph, Hin-mah-too-yah-lat-kekt (“Thunder Rolling Down the Mountain”).

  11. Does this pattern with troughing to our east mean The Dalles onlly be 2 or 3 degrees hotter than Portland next week?

  12. David B. says:

    Disappointing, but hardly a surprise, given that long-range models are consistent with that ridge generally staying in that position for about the next 12 months.

    • David B. says:

      Correction: more like the next seven or eight months. By the March/April/May time period the below-average precip signal vanishes and the above-average temp one weakens.


    • Developpdx@aol.com says:

      Just because it is above average does not mean we won’t see below average periods where we get cold and snow. The one reason averages are not my favorite way to predict if we will get cold and snow. A week of 20’s with another week of teens, followed by an average of 2 degrees higher for the rest of the winter would give us an above average winter.

  13. Paul, you should have been here in Vancouver(BC) back in August 1991. That’s exactly what we had in the last week of that month. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen this year. I had some showers here an hour ago, but it looks like we’re done after this morning.

  14. schmit44 says:

    Lets hope we hit 30 days above 90 this year. Its a great achievement for PDX

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