Some Rain, But Heat Will Return

August 14, 2015

10pm Friday…

Well, it rained today, but not much

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

A heavy shower passed over PDX around 6:30pm, dumping .10″ in the gauge.  Other than that just a few scattered heavy showers.  It’s amazing that we’ve only seen about an inch of rain in the past 10 weeks!

summer rain

The main action headed north today, with widespread 1/2 to 1 inch totals up in Puget Sound.

The upper low has moved off to the northeast so now we are back to warming temperatures this weekend and early next week.

Surprise!  The 7 Day forecast numbers are moving uphill again and it’s looking like hot weather returns for at least Tuesday/Wednesday next week.  The pattern this coming week is similar to what we saw much of last winter with a big upper-level ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and northwesterly flow over us.  You can see it in the ensemble averages for later next week:

gfs

the ECMWF:

ecmwf

The problem with models the past few days is what we saw last winter too.  Occasionally they have been showing a deep trough coming down the back side of the ridge and over us.  Instead the ridge nudges a bit closer.  Thus a warmer (hot) forecast for a good chunk of next week.

GFS this evening would imply high temperatures into the mid 90s next Tuesday and Wednesday.  ECMWF (as of this morning) not quite as warm.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen