ECMWF Monthly Maps & Warm Nights

7:30pm Thursday…

I just took a look at last night’s monthly run of the ECMWF.  It is run twice a week and as you know I regularly post the maps in the wintertime.  Not so much in the summer because anomalies aren’t as great and patterns don’t stick out as well.  That said, this time it seems we can pick out some useful info.  Remember it’s only one model though.

Here are the 4 weekly maps; 500mb height anomaly averaged for each week

Week 1:  Cool troughing next week, especially Wednesday and beyond.  After brief hot weather this weekend temps should return to normal or a bit below through the weekend of the 26th

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2:  More troughing, although not as intense through the first day or two of August

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3:  As August begins, quite a change.  It’s not so obvious on these maps, but heights are a bit above normal.  More on that in a minute

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4:  Ridging returns to it’s preferred spot the past 18 months or so…looks hot.

500za_week4_bg_NA

Now these maps are the ensemble average, not the actual control run.  I took a look at the operational run and it’s quite cool right through about the 2nd of August.  Here’s a look at late next week.  Of course a week or so ago it looked like this for THIS COMING WEEKEND.  Obviously the trough was forecast too far west and ended up well inland instead.

ecmwf_next weekend

Take a look at the operational run for a few days into August.  Looks familiar doesn’t it?

ecmw_operational_aug6

This operational run has hot ridging (heights 588 dm or above) through the entire first half of August (after the 2nd).  That plus the ensembles looking much warmer than normal imply that, after a mild 2nd half of July, the first half of August could be very warm.

Again, remember it’s one model only.  But something to watch.  I am pretty confident the last 10 days of July will be real reasonable around here with no heat wave in sight!

Last night was our 25th night at/above 60 degrees in Portland this year.  Technically it is the 25th calendar day in which the low temperature didn’t drop below 60, but you get the idea.

That means we are already, on the 16th of July, halfway to last year’s “warm nights” record.

MarkHotNights_60DegreeLows

Here’s a look at the progression of 60+ nights since the Airport weather station was established around 1940…we’re heading into unprecedented territory this summer, especially if we get that hot weather in August:

Capture

I did a posting about this last September, you can find it here.

It sure does appear that the warmer than normal east Pacific (the blob) is having its way with our overnight temperatures again this summer.  Cliff Mass up at the UW just blogged about this yesterday in another excellent article.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

53 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Maps & Warm Nights

  1. cgavic says:

    Friday, July 24 at 5:12 pm.
    Sunny skies and 82°

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Who’s ready for a big coastal storm???

    • Jason Hougak says:

      What kind of coastal storm?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Sounds good for Mid October or later. Because we sure aren’t going to have one before then. When we had one in very late September of 2013 the NWS was saying how unusually early it was. The only time I can remember a big coastal storm before late September was in August of 1972 when a big storm off the Southern Oregon coast sank several fishing boats. Peace.

  3. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    A warm night despite low dewpoints. The heat low must be directly overhead.

    72 now after a low of 58. Running +10 over yesterday’s temp. We’ll see what time the marine push starts.

  4. schmit44 says:

    7/18/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:103 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft)
    Low: 70 at Bradley Wayside(650 ft) & DW0310 Olex(1191 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:62 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)
    Low: 27 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (90/36 ) (3020 ft )

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Nice seeing 30F and 27F temps at Crow Flats, at least they can get relief from this heat at night.

  5. Longview 400 ft says:

    At 10 pm just now went down to 79.9. A warm night ahead.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Outside temp is 80 deg at my location in N Albany. It’s 11:00 and all the windows and skylights are open. Exhaust fans are running at full speed. NE wind is barely blowing.
      I’m hot…

    • …it’s amazing to me how a lot of people these days don’t realize the importance of pumping the warm air out so the cooler air coming in has a place to go… i think spending a hot week in a two story farmhouse should be a required subject in creative window use in…..oh…maybe freshman home ec (if such a thing exists anymore…) …or something.. 😉

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    And yet another well bites the dust. This is really having a major impact on the groundwater supply. Water is diminishing quickly and wells only getting deeper to tap into that precious resource that will only get more expensive.
    On another note I heard Mt. Hood Meadows tried to purchase Resort at the Mountain but was turned down. The resort has sold to another owner since. Mt. Hood Meadows must be getting nervous about only having winter season income. Ski Bowl at least has mtn biking, adventure park, Ect. While Timberline hosts summer ski and snowboard camps on the Palmer snowfield, while it lasts, as well as having historic Timberline Lodge. Also heard Ski Bowl is purchasing a lot of real estate in Rhododendron such as restaurants. Oregon’s winter sports industry is sadly having to adjust to changing times. This summer isn’t helping anyone except WeatherDan gloat about how awesome the desert is becoming here in Oregon.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      NWS has another heat advisory, why not just put this whole year on a heat advisory. I’m praying there’s two sides to every coin.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      As usual Jason you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. I have stated facts about weather conditions and have made some forecasts based on available data. But gloating? If I make a forecast that busts you ridicule me. If I make a forecast that verifies you say I gloat. I have never said I was happy for climate change, however there are some on this blog who are extremely happy when we have a damaging windstorm, or a big flood, or ZR, or other adverse weather conditions. You say nothing about that. However when I state a fact about what is happening you say I gloat. Well so much for that. As for the weather it is 87 at 1:00 PM. Another hot day is in store for us. Then a week or so of more normal weather is on the way for us with highs from about 78-85. But starting in late July say about the 28th we start to warm up and as Mark said the first half of August looks hot. It also looks dry. At least we are having little convective activity. So this week looks to be sunny with mild conditions which is better than 100 degrees. Peace.

    • …free beer and ribs the next time the cliff needs to be jumped off of if anyone can make the connection between ski bowl and carnauba wax … one hint…it’s not ski wax… 😉 …

  7. Farmer Ted says:

    Hit 101 degrees at 2 PM today, hottest so far this summer in the Lower Logan area of Clackamas County. That makes for a 50 degree diurnal change today!

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    90 at 12:30 PM. Looks like about 101 today. That would be number 3 for the Summer. I would think maybe another 1 or 2 in August. So maybe 4 or 5 days over 100 this Summer. Today is the 46th rainless day in a row. Low this morning was 62. That is the 15th time it has stayed above 60 this Summer. I sure love Summer. Stay cool. Peace.

  9. Jason Hougak says:

    Mark your blog is so interesting, we all post and most likely none of us know each other at face value yet we know a lot about one another. You ever thought of doing a blog party?

  10. schmit44 says:

    7/17/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft)
    Low: 68 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:50 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 30 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    CW5507 Camp Sher (83/36 ) (3020 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (81/34) (4531 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.04″ at Bend(3650ft)

  11. Wendy-Silverlake, Wa says:

    Need some help here. We’ve got a severe smoke smell and haze going on. I’ve Googled everything I can think of and can’t find anything about a fire. The winds are out of the north so anything burning in eastern Washington wouldn’t be it. Anyone hear anything that hasn’t shown up on local news yet???

  12. Boring Oregon says:

    Great weather today. Got up to 86°f almost perfect for my tastes. I wish every day would be like this

  13. jimbo says:

    Eighteenth!

  14. …the blob gets more fascinating by the month….

  15. Lee Wilson says:

    Perfect pumpkin growing weather. By September. We should have nice big pumpkins…I hope..

  16. WEATHERDAN says:

    80 at 2;30 PM. On the way to 88. 101 for Saturday and 96 on Sunday.. Later next week a cool trough slides down into the intermountain West from Canada. We are on the back side of the trough. No direct hit and it should remain dry this far West. A few showers are possible around Spokane and NE Washington around the 25th to the 28th. For us It should mean dry but cooler weather. 77-83 during the day and 52-56 at night. PDX and environs might see some early morning stratus but not likely downriver as far as SLE. Then a slow warm up to 81-86 and 53-58 between the 29th and August 2nd. Then more heat well into the upper 80,s to the mid 90,s. Morning lows should rise to the 58-63. This Summer looks to be even hotter then last Summer. Which as it turned out was the hottest on record. A few days of relatively cooler will be nice. So would a big dump of rain. But that we are unlikely to see until late September or even October. Salem has a good chance to see it’s 3rd day over 100 on Saturday. So enjoy our heat this weekend and then a return to more normal weather for a few days. Just like 1967 August of 2015 looks hot. Peace.

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      I think I’m/we’re getting a bit too used to our warm biased summers’. Two nights ago, I stepped outside to go to work, and almost thought about going back in to get a sweatshirt. It was 10:30 PM, and the winds were lightly blowing, a bone chilling 62 degrees. I toughed it out, and was amazed how many customers’ that came in that morning were wearing sweaters and jackets because the temps were around 58 at sunrise. Welcome to the desert NW!

  17. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    A nice refreshing 49 for a low this morning 🙂

    • 49 at my place this morning as well.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Yes, refreshing is the weather word before our next heatwave, we are down to 51 degrees this morning and could break 100 this afternoon. That would be around 50 degree diurnal change, maybe I could get ‘Schmitty’ to post that one, can only hope.

  18. I don’t understand this obsession with wanting to be first. The way I see it, people who send in their comments to this blog, should be doing so because they want to discuss the weather- not anything else. We’re not kids here anymore.

    • Paul D says:

      Maybe some are still….

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      ninth!

    • runrain says:

      I’m still a kid! And heading to Seattle this weekend so will be avoiding ANOTHER hot spell. Only expecting 88 or so up there. I still haven’t experienced a day over 95 in Portland this summer yet, as it has turned out.

      10th!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      11th on the reely

    • David B. says:

      @runrain – If that 88 gets to be too much for you, hop on the boat to Bainbridge. It’s only forecast to top out at 82 here, and it will be cooler yet when you’re crossing the Sound on the ferry.

    • runrain says:

      Would love that but will be in Bothell. Will get an afternoon run in on Sunday along Alki so hoping to get a sea breeze going by then. Tradition to follow that up with some Spud fish n’ chips. Gonna be a zoo in West Seattle Sunday with the nice weather.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Does you wife ever call you ‘cranky’ ?

  19. Paul D says:

    “Cool troughing next week, especially Wednesday and beyond. After brief hot weather this weekend temps should return to normal or a bit below through the weekend of the 26th”.

    Music to my ears!!!!

  20. schmit44 says:

    7/16/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:92 at AGENCY VALLEY DA(3307 ft) & Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 68 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & ROWEWS(104 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 29 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    KIRK (77/30 ) (4519 ft )

  21. Too far out…..not biting yet.

  22. Jason Hougak says:

    Wow what a nice evening… first!

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