A Scorcher Today; Turning Humid With Some Smoke Too

9am Friday…

Temperatures will approach 100 degrees this afternoon in the metro area as everything appears to be in place for a 4-7 degree warm up from Thursday’s temperatures.  We were 91-94 in the metro area Thursday, so that puts us in the 95-100 degree range by 4-6pm.

Weather Geek talk follows…

1. 850mb temperature was 21 deg (C) on the morning sounding over Salem, headed for around +24 this afternoon.  If we had easterly wind all the way down to sea level (through the Gorge), this atmosphere would allow a high temperature 100-104 in P-Town.

2. Onshore flow is weaker through the Gorge and winds have turned offshore above the surface.  Yesterday it was 1-2 millibars, right now only 0.7 between PDX-DLS.  West wind has pretty much shut down at the surface now east of the Coast Range.  Up above, sounding shows northeasterly wind all the way up to around 6,000′.  Onshore flow is SLIGHTLY stronger up the Columbia River this morning; that accounts for the high dewpoints (near 60) and humid feel to the air.  I have a feeling some of that will “mix out” this afternoon since it’s such a shallow layer.  Still, dewpoints will likely remain in the 55-60 degree range all day, slightly humid for our area.  We’ll see if they jump this evening.

3. Skies are totally sunny, except for some smoke approaching from the south.  Fires in Southern California and near Lake Tahoe have put a layer of smoke into the atmosphere (way up) and it has made its way into the southern half of Oregon.  The southerly wind higher up around 8,000′ and above will push that farther north.  Might be a nice reddish sunset tonight.  My guess is that we’ll need to get used to fire smoke much of the rest of the summer with big fires already burning in Alaska, Western Canada, & here in the USA West.

4.  Temps are running warmer in the hills already at 9am.  Wanderer’s Peak SE of Estacada (at 4,400′) is already 80 at 9am!  It was 68 at the same time yesterday.

Looking ahead, we’re still on for a good marine push Sunday night and Monday, with an upper-level disturbance depressing the ridge significantly the atmosphere cools quite a bit.  Thus the 80s for Monday and (we’ll see) Tuesday.  Then the ridge pops back the 2nd half of next week.  You can see it in the ECMWF ensemble chart; follow the red line:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

You see the dip Monday/Tuesday, then the rise through the 4th of July weekend, then FINALLY a drop to just a bit above normal the week after the 4th.

There is disagreement among models with respect to details for the big holiday weekend.  It will definitely be very warm, that’s not an issue, but at times models have been showing a shot of cool air into Montana and its associated high pressure allowing a thermal trough to develop west of the Cascades.  That is a classic extreme heat situation.  A bunch of our 100+ days have occurred in a scenario like this in the past.  So part of the 3 day period (Friday-Sunday the 3rd-5th) could be scorching hot OR it may just be 85-90 degrees with weak onshore flow.   The 12z GFS and last night’s ECMWF show the first scenario.

Main message here is that unusually warm weather continues for at least another 10 days.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to A Scorcher Today; Turning Humid With Some Smoke Too

  1. schmit44 says:

    6/26/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:110 at BLALOK( 277 ft)
    Low: 75 at Butler Grade(1789 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at Newport(30 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 38 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    CROW FLAT (95/38 ) (5172 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.61″ at EMIGRANT(3840ft)
    0.57″ at EW6078 La Pine(4259ft)
    0.54″ at MOUNT STELLA(4700ft)
    0.35″ at DW9630 La Pine(4256ft)

  2. paulbeugene says:

    82F at Eugene Airport at 10pm. I think the record warm temperature for 10pm here at EUG is 83F in 1961.
    That is blown away however by the 90F reading at 10pm in Hillsboro in 2006. That was an awful night.

  3. Lurkyloo says:

    Ick. Grrr. Yuck. Blech. %$!)!

    It’s just too hot … at almost 10pm. No thank you!

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Signs of dry thunderstorms in the skies

  5. Hi Weatherdan; Thanks for replying to my query about August 1977. You had a similar pattern of weather there as we did north of the 49th- only we didn’t come close to 80F after August 20th. (also my highest reading was only 90F). Summer was done here that year a month early. I doubt that’s going to happen this time though.

  6. Paul D says:

    95 at my house in Hillsboro. Way too hot.

  7. David B. says:

    81 at 5PM. Reached 82 in the last hour. Sea breeze seems to be coming back, so that’s probably it for the day.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    96 at 3:00 PM. 100 seems likely. No debris clouds visible in SE sky so full heating with sunshine till 6:00 PM. ULL so far not impressive. I still feel Sunday will be no more than 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. Either way it looks like another big heatwave is coming after Sunday. Also a lot of humidity and smoke. Peace.

  9. 3:02 PM Water Vapor Imagery
    4KM Loop
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=mfr&area=west&type=wv&size=4
    This shows south-southeast flow aloft advancing northward into Oregon. Mid-level Moisture is also increasing over southern Oregon/Cascades. Can see good circulation overall with the upper low off California and a few embedded disturbances. Medford NWS mentions several shortwaves will rotate northward this evening through Sunday AM. It won’t take a great deal of lift/trigger to kick off storms with this much warmth, instability, low-level moisture, increasing southerly flow aloft which becomes diffluent a bit with time, and decent forecast shear. I personally think our chances north of Eugene-Three Sisters are fair but not great, 15-25% Saturday evening through Sunday morning. It would be foolish to rule them out entirely given the favorable upper flow and other parameters. 15z SREF is unchanged from my previous analysis. 12z WRF wants to develop precip(Possible T-Storms) over the Willamette Valley sometime Sunday Morning. Seems possible…

  10. David B. says:

    Sea breeze is picking up this afternoon. Now 78. Reached 80 before that started. Now it’s a battle between solar heating and the sea breeze as to whether we beat 80 for the day or not. Either way, I don’t think I’ll see 85 like I did yesterday.

  11. Current Temperatures
    As of 2 PM – 24hr Departures

    [Willamette Valley-PDX Metro]
    Portland: [91] +4
    Scappoose: [91] +2
    Troutdale: [92] +5
    Hillsboro: [94] +8
    Aurora: [92] +5
    McMinnville: [94] +6
    Salem: [93] +5
    Corvallis: [95] +4
    Eugene: [92] +3

    [Southwest Washington]
    Vancouver: [89] +2
    Kelso: No reading
    Castle Rock: [87] +1
    Chehalis: [88] No change

    [Puget Sound]
    Bellingham: [79] -1
    Bremerton: [84] No change
    Everett: [77] -2
    Renton: [84] +1
    Seattle: [85] +2
    Tacoma: [84] No change
    Olympia: [87] +2

    [Oregon Coast]
    Astoria: [67] -8
    Tillamook: [68] -9
    Lincoln City: [60] -6 NW winds gusting over 40mph
    Newport: [59] -5
    Florence: [63] -5
    North Bend: [63] -3
    Brookings: [72] +6

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    90 at 1:00 PM in SLE headed towards 101. 65 last night. Tonight it may stay above 70. Great baseball weather, not so good for sleeping. After 89-93 on Sunday we heat back up quickly maybe to 100 by Wednesday. We could have a 4 or 5 day run in the 100-105 range. Still no rain or big cool down in sight. We might be back down to the 80,s by July 10th or 11th. But even this should be above normal. NWS, WSI, and TWC all have the PNW at much above normal temps July-September. Meanwhile the Midwest and Northeast are expecting inches of rain and highs in the sixties the next few days. Peace.

  13. 12z ECMWF
    6/26/15 …. Just like the GFS now the ECMWF is on board for a major secondary heatwave. Brief break from the heat and some cooling Sun-Mon, then ridging rebuilds. Hot to VERY Hot July 1st – 5th and perhaps beyond. Check out the chart for the 4th of July! Appears the thermal trough moves north right along the Coast giving us hot, dry offshore flow. IF this hold 103-105(or higher?) is likely.


  14. Thank you,answered many of my questions. Why some days here in Lincoln City area I am seeing a dark haze,what the onshore flow is like today and this week. Very good report!!

  15. I’m wondering if anyone else besides me remembers the extended heat wave of August 1977. Back then, there was a 3 week period where the temperature daily went into the 80’s up where I live. Must have at least been in the 90’s around Portland.The intresting thing was, that after it was over, the rest of the summer was cool and quite rainy.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Yes it was an El Nino Summer, just after the big El Nino year of 1976-1977. 1977 was a cool and wet Summer overall except for mid July through mid August which was very hot. Then mid August came and it rained a lot and we only hit 80 5 more times. During this heat wave SLE hit 90 something like 19 of 21 days with 6 of those being 100+. Peace.

  16. Steven says:

    The SPC has a marginal risk of thunderstorms with severe wind in central Oregon today.

  17. W7ENK says:

    No more talk of thunderstorm potential, eh? 😦

    • David B. says:

      NWS is still mentioning them up my way. Of course, they were saying 77 for a high yesterday and I had 85. Though that one really depends on local sea breezes and can be hard to nail down; in the summer we can be anything from about the same as Seattle up to about 12 degrees cooler.

  18. paulbeugene says:

    12z gfs looks scorching hot with temps 105-110F in Willamette valley for July 4.

    Plenty of time for that to adjust toward climatology

%d bloggers like this: