Quick Wednesday PM Update

10pm…

Not much has changed in the past 36 hours.  Hottest weather is still Saturday with the pressure gradient going flat and light easterly flow overhead.  That, mostly sunny (or all sunny) skies, plus 850mb temps around +25 tell me 100 is still an excellent forecast for Portland & Salem Saturday afternoon.  Could be anywhere between 98-102 I suppose.

WRF-GFS looks a little more like the ECMWF showing convection (thunderstorms) staying mainly over and east of the Cascades.  Could be a wild afternoon Saturday at the mountain lakes in Central Oregon.

There’s a very obvious marine push Saturday night west of the Cascades.  That plus some leftover high cloud cover could knock our high down 10 degrees to right around 90.  A bit more cooling Monday drops us into the upper 80s.

So will a high temperature around 100 be the warmest this year?  Could be.  Last year we hit 99 on July 1st, then hit that number again the 2nd week of August.  In 2013 the high on June 30th WAS the warmest of the season.  So don’t freak out thinking that 100 now must mean 105 in late July…it may not.

MarkYearly_DateofHotHighTemps

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

46 Responses to Quick Wednesday PM Update

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    TWC has SLE at 102 on Saturday and 88 on Sunday. I don’t think the drop off will be as sharp. The disturbance doesn’t look all that impressive to me. Nor does the marine push. My feeling is a cool down of 5-10 degrees more likely. 5 degrees for some marine air. Another 5 if we have a great deal of cloudiness. So 92-97 seems more likely. This then is what I feel is likely for the next 15 days.Fri 26 100/64, Sat 27 102/67, Sun 28 93/71, Mon 29 91/68, Tue 92/65. Wed July 1 95/66, Thur 2 96/66 Fri 3 98/67. Sat 4 103/70, Sun 5 101/69, Mon 6 98/66, Tue 7 95/64, Wed 8 91/61, Thur 9 89/60, Fri 10 88/59. I don’t see any cool weather over the next two weeks. However the heat wave should break shortly after the Independence day weekend. July has a decent shot to be even hotter than last year which was the hottest ever. We have never had 4 consecutive Summers (2012-2015) this hot before. Records for Salem start in 1892. The closest was 1950-1952. But those Summers were not nearly as warm as now. Even more so the overnight minimums. Peace.

  2. Lee Wilson says:

    We did hit 100 today

  3. Current Temperatures
    As of 4 PM – 24hr Departure

    [Willamette Valley-PDX Metro]
    Portland: [90] +6
    Scappoose: [90] +7
    Troutdale: [91] +7
    Hillsboro: [89] +6
    Aurora: [90] +7
    McMinnville: [92] +7
    Salem: [92] +7
    Corvallis: [93] +3
    Eugene: [93] +6

    [Southwest Washington]
    Vancouver: [90] +7
    Kelso: [90] +8
    Castle Rock: [90] +7
    Chehalis: [90] +11

    [Oregon Coast]
    Astoria: [75] +1
    Tillamook: [77] +4
    Lincoln City: [68] No change
    Newport: [64] No change
    Florence: [68] +4
    North Bend: [68] No change
    Brookings: [70] +7

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    In 1967 in the 21 days between August 8th and 28th Salem averaged 93.7. According to TWC the likely temperatures over the time span between June 24th and July 9th should be 95.7. since this heatwave may go on longer then 2 weeks we don’t know what the 21 day max will average this time. Also our overnight lows are much warmer now. And because the days are longer than in August the heat starts earlier and lasts longer. So this looks to be the longest lasting and hottest heatwave ever in recorded history in the valley. Peace.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    91 at 3:00 PM in Salem. Really pleasant outside with nice Northerly breeze. Looks like we might see 90,s the next 14 days straight. NWS has Salem at 89 so if not too cloudy 90 seems reasonable. Then it’s off to the races with the heat. Good shot of over 100 by next Friday and the 4th of July. I actually like this weather. So if we hit 90 40 times this Summer I won’t complain. However the fire situation really worries me. Here is a nasty scenario for next week. Dozens of wildfires around Oregon because of the dry TRW. Temps 89-94 West and 98-103 East Sunday-Tuesday. Then 96-104 West and 99-107 East Wednesday-Sunday July 5th. Then slowly cooling but still reaming above 90 for a few more days. Lots of smoky skies which means very bad air conditions for us. Nighttime lows from 63-73 in the valley and Portland. So while I enjoy hot weather I do worry of it’s consequences. And please don’t use fireworks this year. Go to a professional show instead. The chances are just too great that some urban wildfires will really spoil someones holiday even if you are careful. Everything is so dry one spark is enough to start a fire. Hey thanks to the veterans of the forgotten war-Korea. The Korean war started 65 years ago today. Happy Independence day everyone. Peace.

  6. David B. says:

    NWS still sticking with a 30% t-storm chance for me Saturday night and Sunday.

  7. Current Temperatures
    As of 3 PM – 24hr Departure

    [Willamette Valley-PDX Metro]
    Portland: [88] +5
    Scappoose: [89] +7
    Troutdale: [90] +9
    Hillsboro: [87] +3
    Aurora: [87] +8
    McMinnville: [90] +7
    Salem: [89] +8
    Corvallis: [93] +9
    Eugene: [92] +6

    [Southwest Washington]
    Vancouver: [88] +6
    Kelso: [88] +6
    Castle Rock: [89] +7
    Chehalis: [88] +9

    [Oregon Coast]
    Astoria: [74] No change
    Tillamook: [75] +2
    Lincoln City: [68] No change
    Newport: [64] +1
    Florence: [68] +4
    North Bend: [68] +2
    Brookings: [69] +8

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “You can imagine the impact on local vampires.”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/06/june-without-gloom.html

  9. Current Temperatures
    As of 2 PM – 24hr Departure

    [Willamette Valley-PDX Metro]
    Portland: [87] +7
    Scappoose: [89] +9
    Troutdale: [87] +9
    Hillsboro: [86] +5
    Aurora: [87] +8
    McMinnville: [86] +7
    Salem: [88] +8
    Corvallis: [91] +7
    Eugene: [89] +6

    [Southwest Washington]
    Vancouver: [87] +9
    Kelso: [86] +5
    Castle Rock: [88] +9
    Chehalis: [88] +11

    [Oregon Coast]
    Astoria: [75] +1
    Tillamook: [77] +5
    Lincoln City: [65] -1
    Newport: [64] +3
    Florence: [68] +4
    North Bend: [66] No Change
    Brookings: [66] +6

  10. Current Temperatures
    As of 1 PM – 24hr Departure
    [Willamette Valley-PDX Metro]
    Portland: [83] +7
    Scappoose: [84] +6
    Troutdale: [85] +11
    Hillsboro: [83] +5
    Aurora: [85] +10
    McMinnville: [86] +7
    Salem: [87] +7
    Corvallis: [90] +9
    Eugene: [86] +5
    [Southwest Washington]
    Vancouver: [83] +8
    Kelso: [82] +7
    Castle Rock: [86] +7
    Chehalis: [84] +11
    [Oregon Coast]
    Astoria: [76] +5
    Tillamook: No Reading
    Lincoln City: [64] No Change
    Newport: [64] +1
    Florence: [66] +2
    North Bend: [66] No Change
    Brookings: [67] +9

  11. 12z ECMWF similar this Fri – Sat, no surprises up its sleeves. This run has a bit more northerly flow Mon-Wed, not a roasting hot as the GFS for July 1st. July 3rd/4th +20c or higher with good offshore flow will still be plenty hot well above 90.

  12. runrain says:

    It’s true. It really does feel like August out there, just looking at all the brown grass around town next to the freeways, in open lots, etc.

  13. 12z GFS – 6/25/15 Taken at face value
    High Temperatures over the next 10 days and average
    Thu 6/25: [90] – Fri 6/26: [94] – Sat 6/27: [101] – Sun 6/28: [85]
    Mon 6/29: [92] Tue 6/30: 83 – Wed 7/1: [98]
    Thu 7/2: [104] – Fri 7/3: [101] – Sat 7/4: [107]
    *Average High Temp: 95.5 degrees!

    Even if this run were let’s say 2-3 degrees off on the hottest days, we’d still end up with an average over 90 degrees for the next 10 days! amazing.

    12z GFS Ensembles – 6/25/15
    Increasing support for a 2nd heatwave, potentially hotter than what we’ll be seeing Fri-Sat. After a noticeable dip Sun-Tue, things rebound in a major way very similar to the operational. Major heat likely July 3rd – 6th as the Ensemble mean climbs to +23c to +25c throughout this period. Many members suggest even warmer +24c to +27c. Looking further out the majority of members are still at/above +20c through July 8th. Incredible potential for long duration heat.

  14. schmit44 says:

    12z operational GFS went crazy with 850mb temps a record +30c on the 4th of July

  15. Lee Wilson says:

    Thankfully We can use BBQs Because I sure in Heck Not Going Ho fire up our stove in this heat:

    Remember Stay safe and have an extinguisher and or water with you at all times.

    Keep your petro out of the heaters well and leave ” Fido” and for some “fluffy” At home with fans and Ale running .

    And remember ‘ only You can Prevent Forest Fires ‘

  16. Paul D says:

    That 7 day forecast is still full of nothing but bad news. Any chance of getting back to normal anytime soon?

    • Joshua says:

      Normal? We haven’t been normal (or the better side of it) since November. I would take a bit warmer than normal at this point instead of endless record breaking warmth and dryness. This is just asinine.

    • Paul D says:

      I’m with you! OK, let’s wish for 5 over normal…..

  17. alohabb says:

    Home a/c installs booked out 3-6 weeks, so if your too hot, I suggest the ice bucket challenge!

    • Paul D says:

      I have a four year old heat pump that does a spectacular job of cooling the house. I’m going to go give it a hug before it gets too hot outside 🙂

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Dry ice in a Styrofoam container and a blower from a b allowing or Halloween inflatable works we..bigger the blower the better lol.

  18. During hot weather spells like this, sometimes you even have to be careful where you put a water bottle. Some years ago, I left one on a table with a plastic cover. The sun shone through the transparent bottle which acted like a magnifying glass. The table cover started to burn!

  19. Lee Wilson says:

    Sounds like google Peggy weather. And maybe some nice strawberries too.. Perfect also for our matters.

    And it looks like our dog will be staying home.

    Even the shaded areas can get to warm for our pets if left in the car with the windows down.

    Also make sure children stay hydrated.

    Looks like we might hit the water park.

  20. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Can we have like, 104+ and dry please? I REALLY don’t want a prolonged period of muggy days and just unbearable nights. I got my fill last year, and the year before.

    Seriously, I live in OREGON not OHIO.

  21. schmit44 says:

    6/25/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 71 at Celilo, East of(225 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & ROWEWS(104 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:60 at Newport(30 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 31 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (89/38 ) (5000 ft )
    Beatty (87/36) (4320 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.02″ at EW1765 Mount Hoo(1542ft)

  22. High Desert Mat says:

    Just read the feed on western weather. Does anyone know what Richard Mann is on? I feel like I’m reading script from a computer with a virus or something. Seriously though, what’s his deal?

  23. Given how hot the forecast is for the next 3 months, I’d be extremely surprised if we don’t get at least one more heat event after this late June / early July “double header”. I think that what the Midwest saw in the summer of 2011, now the West is going to have the exact same problem. We seem to have had a hot upper-level ridge locked in place across the western half of the North American continent for several months now. That gave us a nice early spring in February and March, but it’s summer now and we have a tremendous “heat dome” forming.

    The warm water a short distance to our west-northwest will serve to keep the ridgy West / troughy East in place for a while yet. That could mean all-time record heat this July and August, if things set up right. Or maybe places like Portland muster enough marine influence to avoid extreme heat after this weekend, and just have lots of 80s plus a couple garden-variety hot spells in the 90s.

    But my bet is on another event later this summer, where PDX gets at least to the upper 90s if not the 100-105 range. Possibly even hotter if a death ridge with easterly flow re-develops. In fact I think this is going to be another summer that drags on through most of September, possibly into early October again too. I hope you invested in air conditioning devices, ladies and gents!

  24. paulbeugene says:

    There are two short waves shown on the mm5 models for this weekend.
    NAM: #1 crosses Willamette Valley from 3-7am Sat, #2 crosses 4-11pm Sat

    GFS: #1 impacts south Will. Valley to Salem 8pm-midnight Friday evening, #2 crosses valley from midnight Sat night until 6am Sunday.

    EURO (12z): #1 reaches Eugene midnight Friday night, reaches PDX 6am Sat am; Has relatively weaker looking wave Saturday evening/night, followed by stronger wave Sunday night that would usher in fairly strong SW marine push

    I think best chances for thunderstorms in Eugene area, based on models, would be Friday evening/night. For the Portland area, seems that the shortwave Saturday evening might result in some storms particularly toward the east side.
    The Sunday night disturbance is worth paying attention to as well in the Portland area, especially if there is less cloudiness than anticipated on Sunday afternoon (south valley does not do well in SW marine push-induced storms).

    Bottom line: best chances (as always) for seeing lightning will be in the Cascades but valley residents will have an opportunity as well. Am not anticipating any severe weather (large hail/funnels etc).

    • Nice analysis. I see the SREF goes bonkers with T-Storms overnight Saturday into Sunday for the central-northern Willamette Valley and PDX metro. Activity moves north-northwest. 24hr T-Storm Probability is at 30-40%.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      I noticed we are in a “red flag”area.
      Hopefullyvpeople get that message loud and clear about being carefully with shier grills.

      And I hope people will. Double check theirxcar fluids.
      Nothing like an over heating car to make a hot day even worse.

      And don’t forget..Max Lines will be crawling as well .

      I hope to have a nice lightening storm.here in this area.

      Bethankful we rarely get heat related outages.
      As for us, this heat reduces solar power out put.

      Our plants will go bonkers in our green house and our one pumpkin will become a mutant.
      Thankfully its non gmo. .otherwise we would have a serious delika.

  25. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Mountain Cascade lakes. That’s me 😦

    • runrain says:

      Just keep a vehicle close by and pointed towards the road. Seriously, it is really dry out there for so early in the summer. I don’t think people are comprehending how critical this upcoming event is (the lengthy heatwave) to magnifying the dry conditions. At the least, after a week of such heat, moods are going to be tested.

    • I spent last weekend around the upper clackamas….it feels like august up there already….

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