Not much has changed in the past 36 hours. Hottest weather is still Saturday with the pressure gradient going flat and light easterly flow overhead. That, mostly sunny (or all sunny) skies, plus 850mb temps around +25 tell me 100 is still an excellent forecast for Portland & Salem Saturday afternoon. Could be anywhere between 98-102 I suppose.
WRF-GFS looks a little more like the ECMWF showing convection (thunderstorms) staying mainly over and east of the Cascades. Could be a wild afternoon Saturday at the mountain lakes in Central Oregon.
There’s a very obvious marine push Saturday night west of the Cascades. That plus some leftover high cloud cover could knock our high down 10 degrees to right around 90. A bit more cooling Monday drops us into the upper 80s.
So will a high temperature around 100 be the warmest this year? Could be. Last year we hit 99 on July 1st, then hit that number again the 2nd week of August. In 2013 the high on June 30th WAS the warmest of the season. So don’t freak out thinking that 100 now must mean 105 in late July…it may not.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen