Warm Start To June

June 15, 2015

I notice we’ve seen more 90 degree days in June (4 so far) than any year since 2006

MarkJune_90DegreeDays

The June record is 6 days, which is easily beatable if we get another hot spell in the 2nd half of the month.  There is a reasonable chance that could occur since models are showing above average temperatures continuing.

This evening was real interesting with a strong marine push providing a huge temperature contrast across the northern Willamette Valley.  Check out the 6pm temps…

PLOT_Temps_MetrotoCentralCoast

At the same time mid-upper 80s were widespread, areas west of the Willamette River south of Chehalem Mountain were dropping into the 60s!  That was a surge of cool marine air moving in through the low gap in the Coast Range west of Sheridan.  The same thing happened at Corvallis, gusts there reached 30 mph.

I noticed how dry it is outside today…feels like early-mid July in my yard.  We’ve only had 1.00″ of rain in the past 6 weeks and no rain is on the way.  Check out the 10 day rain forecast from the GFS

10daypcp_GFS

and ECMWF

10daypcp_ECMWF

No sign of any significant weather to give us a soaking.  This is the driest late spring/early summer so far in my entire career here in Portland.  You have to go back to 1992 to find a similar start to summer.  That’s assuming we get little or no rain in the next 2 weeks.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


ECMWF Monthly Run: Summer Is Early & Sticks Around

June 15, 2015

Back from vacation…here are the 4 weekly maps of average 500mb height and anomaly.  Wow, things sure haven’t changed much in the past year.  Upper-level heights remain above normal over us or just to our north and west.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

It’s been an unusually warm and dry end to spring and start of summer and there’s no sign that’s going to change.  It’s going to be a rough summer for our native vegetation due to lack of water and for our forests (from fire).

On the flip side, my cucumbers, tomatoes, and squash are going to do great!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen