ECMWF Monthly Run, A Warm June Ahead

9:30am Tuesday…

A bit delayed.  Here are the 4 weekly 500mb anomaly maps from the ECMWF run Sunday night.   It forecasts upper-level heights above normal for about 3 of the next 4 weeks.  There is troughing during the 3rd week of the month.





37 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run, A Warm June Ahead

  1. W7ENK says:

    300 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2015

  2. schmit44 says:

    Deadline to enter will be 11pm on June 5th

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Whom was the May winner?

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Same thing.

    • W7ENK says:

      Actually, it’s not.

      Who vs. whom = he vs. him / she vs. her.
      Conjugation of the subject is dependent on context.

      If you answer the question you’ve asked, how would the response sound?


      Q: “Whom was the May winner?”

      A: “Him was the May winner.”
      A: “Her was the May winner.”



      Q: “Who was the May winner?”

      A: “He was the May winner.”
      A: “She was the May winner.”

      Which one of those sounds correct to you?

      You can’t out-grammar me.

      This little grammar lesson was brought to you by the letter W and the number 7.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      They are the same thing.

    • W7ENK says:

      No, they’re not, and I just nicely described to you in detail why they’re not, but go ahead and use “who” and “whom” interchangeably at your leisure. That’s fine…

  3. schmit44 says:

    6/3/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:79 at BLALOK( 277 ft) & UMATILLA(270 ft) & DW0069 Ferndale(840 ft) & EW1140 Umatilla(364 ft)
    Low: 58 at UMATILLA RIVER N(362 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft) & ECHO(683 ft) & Celilo, East of(225 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft)

    High:39 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 26 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    KLAMATH NWR (67/28 ) (4531 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.68″ at K7ZQU-7 Santiam(4790ft)
    0.51″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.50″ at SEINE CREEK(2060ft)
    0.45″ at CW2664 Corbett(659ft)
    0.40″ at DW8818 Damascus(600ft)

  4. W7ENK says:

    Interesting line of CU/Cb building over the West Hills earlier.

    Too bad it didn’t amount to anything…

  5. I’m still hoping for a mild and sunny Summer. Not a brutally hot an sunny Summer. It would seem the deck is stacked towards a hot Summer with a warm norther Pacific and El Nino conditions though.

    I’ll be getting the A/C units out early this year for sure.

    • W7ENK says:

      Okay, and how many times have we looked toward winter in early December and said “it seems the deck is stacked towards an epic cold and snowy winter because La Niña, because cold phase PDO, because analogs and history… only to have winter end up being a complete flop?

      More times than I care to count.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      yeah, last November we had a cold snap with freezing rain (here) and everybody was saying..”it’s only November, just think what the rest of the winter will be like!”……. One short spell of weather doesn’t predict the trend.

    • True, but the signs point towards hot. Doesn’t mean it will be but the odds me thinks are higher for hot than mild.

    • W7ENK says:

      “The odds…” lol

      Remember: despite the odds, the House always wins.

    • runrain says:

      Hey, I want in on that! C’mon seven!

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    0.94″ already this month. Not bad at all. I’m glad everything is getting watered before the upcoming heat.

    9.2 degree temperature range so far this month.

    • David B. says:

      I’m not surprised. It really poured on Monday when I was driving through Clark County.

      Also poured though Cowlitz and Lewis counties, for that matter. Then, as often happens, around Olympia the weather changed. It was just a few light showers from then on.

  7. schmit44 says:

    6/2/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:79 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & DW0069 Ferndale(840 ft)
    Low: 59 at ECHO(683 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    High:37 at Rim(7050 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 29 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    KLAMATH BASIN NW (67/38 ) (4200 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.90″ at SALT CREEK FALLS(4220ft)
    0.90″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    0.88″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.84″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.80″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.80″ at MOSS SPRINGS(5760ft)
    0.80″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2690ft)
    0.79″ at IMBLER(2749ft)
    0.79″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    Mother Nature is having mood swings… must be going through minnopose.

  9. Boring Oregon says:

    I can’t believe it. Boring was mentioned in the news because of the downpour that went through.

  10. Today was a nice break from the warmth and sun. We didn’t get a lot of rain (0.30 inches) here, but if the extended forecast is correct, I’m going to appreciate every rainy day we get this summer.

  11. Paul D says:

    Not looking forward to the heat at all. 80 is enough. 90 is too much. Enjoying the cool while it’s here.

    • One positive note is that it’s still early enough in the year that it still cools off at night into more comfortable sleeping temps.

      So, at least we have that.

    • The only reason it “normally” still cools off at night this time of year, is because the airmasses are normally still cooler than they are in July and August. If we get a midsummer-type hot airmass overhead, then we will get midsummer-like hot temps and warm nights because we have the daylight/sunangle for it. (The latent heat or coolness of the ground can contribute slightly to thermal lag, but not very much.)

      June has the insolation for summer heat, but (usually) not the airmass warmth. In September it’s the opposite problem: the atmosphere is still hot but the weaker sun means the heat starts to have trouble manifesting at the surface.

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    I believe the tone for our Summer weather is being set. Long warm to hot spells with a few brief periods of cooler weather. It also appears we could set another record for warm nights in 2015. And with a strengthening El Nino it looks like another warm Winter coming up. Fascinating indeed. 64 in Salem this afternoon under cloudy skies. Partly cloudy and about 70 on Wednesday before the heat sets in. Peace.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Troughing during the 3rd week of the month, eh?

    Of course! What would an all night Jaanipäev celebration (20-21 June) in the PNW wilderness be if it weren’t a total washout?

    Let’s hope that changes…

  14. ockman says:

    HI Mark Nelson
    Im ready for the hot hot hot weather forecast this weekend.
    I Would like to know how long is it going to last?
    I Herd into next Monday.
    I Would like to know what kind of a summer where we going to have this year july august September ?
    From Brandon bockman

    • High Desert Mat says:


    • WEATHERDAN says:

      People is it asking too much to use spell check on your posts? It really detracts from the meaning of the post when this happens. I enjoy all of your posts, but good grammar is always appreciated. Thank you. Peace.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Are you a teacher WEATHERDAN?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I have a B.S degree in education and have done some teaching. Peace.

  15. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    It’s so hard to believe it’s going to be 90 this weekend. It’s 55 now and drizzling. This month has potential to produce some more storms too, that would be nice.

  16. MasterNate says:

    I guess its time to put up the kiddy pool.

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