A Big Soaking For Some Tonight

Monday 5pm…

I was out working in the yard/garden this weekend and it’s pretty obvious we could use a soaking.  Here comes a night with some good downpours, but only for some of us.  The issue is that we don’t know exactly who is getting the soaking tonight; although we have a general idea it’ll be in the far northern part of Oregon and SW Washington.

An “upper-level low” will track from just off the central Oregon coastline at this moment to around Burns by tomorrow afternoon. The combination of moist southeasterly flow ahead of and to the north of it running into the northwest flow behind it will likely form what we call a “deformation zone”.  It’s a solid area of rain that develops in that location, generally north-northwest of an upper-level low.  Here’s the WRF-GFS rain forecast for the next 24 hours:

or_pcp24.36.0000

It’s soaking the Portland metro area with around an inch of rain, possibly even higher.  The pink area indicates 1.28″ or more.  The band of heavy rain appears to be centered from the central Oregon coastline across to Mt. Hood.

Our RPM forecast has similar, or slightly higher totals, but has the main action farther north.

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

Notice just south of the metro area the totals are significantly lighter.

The HRRR model, which only goes out to 15 hours, has the soaking rains even farther north.

HRRR_RainTotal

Note only a few sprinkles south of the Columbia River by sunrise…seems too far north to me based on what we’re seeing on radar so far.

So the big picture is that a large area somewhere between Eugene and Olympia should get a soaking within the next 24 hours.  Regardless of the totals, Tuesday appears to be a rainy and cool day for most of us.  In fact I don’t see a good chance for dry weather activities (that need many hours of dry weather) until the 2nd half of the week.

MarkMowLawnForecast

We have two more upper-level lows that move inland over the West Coast, one on Thursday and one Sunday.  Both of those are moving into California, which means not a lot of rain here.  We could still see showers after Wednesday, but they should be far more spotty.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

47 Responses to A Big Soaking For Some Tonight

  1. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    T-storms tomorrow??

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Looks like fairly typical May weather coming up next few days. Mid 60,s to low 70,s and a chance of a few showers, Maybe getting into the mid to high 70,s by Memorial Day weekend. 1-1.5 inches of rain the next 2 weeks unless you are in a thunderstorm. Then you can easily double that. 64 so far in Salem today. Almost 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Only .01 since yesterday. Partly sunny as well. Peace.

  3. buffedman says:

    Positive SST anomalies have intensified over much of the equatorial Pacific, all the way to the South American coast. (latest weekly SST map) .

  4. buffedman says:

    NOAA/MEI indicating strengthening El Nino conditions.

  5. Lee Wilson says:

    This is the waxiest weather I have seen..its may and Northern California has issued a winter storm above 6k feet, we are still getting snow on mountains, and we are having temps that are more like winter than summer.

    Ok trivia for all you hard cor weather people.
    True or False
    We had a year with out a summer..no googling..and no searching..just off the top of your head true or false.

  6. David B. says:

    All the action seems to be to my south on this one. May get a few showers today but doubt it will amount to much. It’s really shockingly dry for mid-May up here (more like mid-July in fact; trails in the woods are dry and getting dusty).

    Oh well, enjoy it if you’re getting it.

    • David B. says:

      Well, scratch that prediction. Been raining since early this afternoon. Not heavy, mind you, but it’s been falling. .19 inches today after .05 overnight.

  7. Lee Wilson says:

    On radar looks like storms coming from the east with jet stream coming from 5 he south..makings for grand thunderstorms possibly a tornado?

    Who knows as wacky as this weather is.

  8. schmit44 says:

    5/12/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:76 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 53 at ROWEWS(104 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 23 at Rim (7050 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    BALTZOR RANCH NE (64/33 ) (4620 ft )
    DANNER (64/33) (4225 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.83″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
    1.66″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    1.37″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    1.36″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)
    1.34″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.30″ at W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89ft)
    1.23″ at LINCON Lincoln C(187ft)

  9. W7ENK says:

    0.50″ of rain yesterday from 6pm to midnight.
    0.20″ of rain this morning from midnight to 6am.

    Off and an sprinkles all the way up to Clatskanie this morning, then steady light rain all day so far out here. Looking at the radar before I left, I’d say that your HRRR map was pretty much spot on.

    I’m hoping for a dry drive home this afternoon.

  10. Garron near Washington square says:

    Looks like Erik sealed the dome pretty well before he left for work this morning! It’s a bit drippy out there, but so far, most of the soaking resides to the north, east, west, and south of us…

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

  11. schmit44 says:

    5/11/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:75 at UNION(2708 ft) & CW2049 Imnaha(1978 ft) & DW1597 Troy(1612 ft)
    Low: 55 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:36 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 25 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    MINAM RIVER AT M (73/40 ) (2564 ft )
    CW1102 Wallowa (72/39) (2946 ft)
    NPOWDR (70/37) (3212 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.66″ at DW6659 Colton(825ft)
    1.60″ at CW4896 Waltervil(574ft)
    1.30″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.27″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    1.25″ at GREEN MOUNTAIN(3064ft)
    1.20″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    1.20″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2690ft)
    1.12″ at DW9630 La Pine(4256ft)
    1.09″ at EW6654 Rhododend(1411ft)
    1.04″ at DW4118 Sandy(1250ft)

  12. Brian Leroy says:

    up too 10 inches for us the next two weeks in May ofall months according to cliff, hell we didn’t event get that in March last year when the oso slid happed, i think is smoking a little too much. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/05/drought-help.html

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Feels like Memorial Day out there. Upper Lows always pay a visit to the NW around Memorial Day, only it is a couple weeks early.

  14. High Desert Mat says:

    Its not very often the weather streams from the east. I know the low is coming onshore from the west but the radar looks pretty cool. Especially a steady moderate rain moving east to Wes.

  15. …the soaking is underway here in the foothills… .60 since 2am, .40 since 4 this afternoon…

  16. Paul D says:

    It’s a raining in Hillsboro! Yay! Free lawn watering!

  17. Jason Hougak says:

    2nd week of May and it’s snowing at Timberline Lodge, the might get 6″ plus.
    Fall and Spring have brought more snowfall in the mountains than winter, just plain crazy!

  18. Umm Mark….Isn’t that Mowing Forecast for Tuesday supposed to say ‘BAD’ instead of ‘GOOD’ ?

  19. High Desert Mat says:

    Its a shame this isn’t in January and there was a lot of cold air in place with the track of this slow moving low. Maybe next year.

  20. High Desert Mat says:

    First!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Don’t be jealous timbers, you may get to be first one day.

    • David B. says:

      Really, timbers15, I don’t see what the big deal of this “First” business is. Sure, it’s a bit silly. But it’s just one post. It’s not some endless drama queen back and forth that dominates the forum. It’s basically harmless. People have been doing it here for years, and it’s not going to stop just because you post “Childish” in response to such posts. Let it go.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      timbers15.
      Don’t push it, or l’ll give you a war you won’t believe. Let it go.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      I think timbers is just going along with the joke.

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