May Begins Mild & (Mainly) Dry

9:30pm Tuesday…

It’s been awhile since I last blogged; but I’ve got a few random notes tonight:

1.  Mt. Bachelor is closing.  They are the last ski area to throw in the towel on the horrid ski season.  They typically stay open daily through Memorial Day since USUALLY there is plenty of snow left on the ground.  Not this year!  You can read all about it on their web page.  This coming Sunday will be the last day.  http://www.mtbachelor.com/site/winter/ski/update

Capture

2.  Detroit Lake has stopped filling.  I noticed the level hasn’t changed in a week; it appears the very low flows on the streams feeding into the lake aren’t keeping up with the discharge.  That’s due to little rain and hardly any snow to melt.  A neat graphic here shows the leveling off.

Capture

Rainfall has only been around 50% of normal for much of Oregon in the past 30 days.

anomimage

This is exactly what you DON’T want after the worst snowpack on record.  Forecasts of decent stream flow across parts of the state have been based on NORMAL precipitation in April and May, before the dry season really kicks in.  If May continues dry, we’re probably even going to see some issues on the westside of the state too.

3.  Split-Flow and/or Ridging seems to want to hang around.  Here is the forecast for next Monday from tonight’s GFS:

gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht

A pattern of systems cutting off and dying as the approach the West Coast has been causing problems with models in the 5-10 day range.  The warm stretch we just had late last week and over the weekend was forecast very well way out in time.  Over the past couple of weeks models have repeatedly shown cool/wet conditions in the long-range only to have the splitty pattern reappear.  That seems to be happening again for this coming weekend and early next week.  Some of that is not unusual in the spring season, but it IS strange to see upper-level lows diving down towards California in May.

The 12z ECMWF Ensemble 500mb height anomaly for NEXT Wednesday shows the troughing to the south…

ecmwf_wed

But ridging returns to our north again mid-month, note Monday the 18th…

ecmwf_mon_18th

I have a feeling May is going to return us back into “Above Average Temperature” territory.

4.  Short term we have a chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening, although most action appears to be over the mountains.  There’s always a chance that we get something to drift out over the valleys though so maybe we’ll get lucky.  Today was sure underwhelming with many spots getting very little rain.   Then it’s back to 70s and maybe even touching 80 for Friday and Saturday.  It appears we have ANOTHER very nice weekend ahead.  Moms will be happy with that.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

48 Responses to May Begins Mild & (Mainly) Dry

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    79 at 4:00 PM. Wall to wall sunshine as well. Great day to grill a steak. Might see a few showers next week but still looks mild. I understand u pick strawberries are ready to pick. This is at least 1 month too early. Happy birthday Mark. Peace.

  2. Brian Leroy says:

    A little ways out but models are giving OR cascades a decent amount of snow next week, great news if this pans.
    outhttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/load.cgi?images_d2/or_snow72.156.0000.gif

  3. Lee Wilson says:

    Mark, maybe we can see a blog on your Garden?

  4. schmit44 says:

    5/7/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:79 at Celilo, East of( 225 ft)
    Low: 50 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:36 at FISH CREEK(7900 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 15 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Wasco Junction ( (73/29 ) (1100 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.39″ at LAVA BUTTE(4650ft)
    0.34″ at POINT PROM II(6607ft)
    0.30″ at OCHOCO MEADOWS(5200ft)

  5. Paul D says:

    This is beginning to get annoying: it’s only May 7 and my lawn needs watering.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Get a water timer, it will save both time and money some have multiple out puts..or get one of those sprinklers that has timers built in to it.

    • Paul D says:

      My entire yard watering is automated. It’s just annoying that the yard already needs watering and it’s only early May. Guess all the money I saved on the heating bill this winter is going to go to the water bill this summer.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Any trend/tendency for low 500mb heights offshore of California should promote mild SW flow aloft with periods of S or SSE flow leading to convective outbreaks. That would give us opportunity for much needed precipitation, especially over high terrain .

    As far as I am concerned this is ideal weather for getting vegetable gardens going. No point in having brief hot spell in 85-95F range at this time of year leading to cool snap with drizzle and temps in 50s.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Bring on the convective outbreaks!
      Gotta get some precipitation.

    • W7ENK says:

      I fully expect to be drawing more circles over Mark’s lightning maps outlining the perimeter of The Dome within the next two weeks…

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    A little chilly this morning with a low of 34.6 here in Battle Ground. Lots of frost too.

  8. schmit44 says:

    5/6/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at Medford Viaduct(1360 ft) & CW6811 Grants Pa(947 ft) & UMATILLA(270 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 55 at DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Sand Creek (US 9 (52/15 ) (4525 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.70″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    0.50″ at MUD RIDGE(3800ft)
    0.47″ at Pendleton Agricu(1487ft)
    0.41″ at HOOD RIVER(510ft)
    0.40″ at MT. HOWARD(7910ft)
    0.34″ at CW8673 Elgin(2782ft)

  9. Josh "the snowman" from everett says:

    Oh sure mark. Make a big deal about split flow in May? If we had a normal winter it wouldn’t be a story. Just a month ago you were talking about how they were managing the reservoirs just fine. April killed that? I think not!! Who in the kptv ilk turned you into this notion.

    Happy birthday btw.

  10. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Perhaps the “splitty” pattern will set up an upper level low off the coast and give some good T-storms in a week or so..?

    • runrain says:

      Hope so. That would make up for the real “splitty” weather we had this winter! It’s just been the “splits”, hasn’t it? 🙂

  11. Andy says:

    Andy
    hail, thunder,in Jefferson.

  12. Lee Wilson says:

    We are with out power in parts of Castle Rock Washington.
    We are on a generator as a back up.Real Power Outage: https://youtu.be/iF6hNPU1b2g

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Testing something

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Ok, I got it, I have to share it from the share section while viewing the video.

      At any rate called the PUD estimated time to energizing is around 8:52 pm. Cause is unknown.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      When your house is that messy you probably shouldn’t share it with the world. Or at least with us weather geeks lol. Just playin around Lee

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Yeah, we had a small tornado loose in the house..
      He is 4 years old. We have had one appointment after another back to back…

      And now time to have neurological tests done..

      There are times when it’s better to have a disorganized house then to well..I won’t say it here lol.

      At least we’re not doing drugs…right?

  13. Boring Oregon says:

    I was wanting to see at least a quick T-STORM today but looks like I’m gonna need to wait.

  14. Happy BD Mark. Not too much weather excitement in our neck of the woods so far. All in the southern plains.

  15. …HBD, Mark, and the rest of us May babies 🙂 …

  16. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like it when there’s little in the way of convective inhibition!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
    929 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

    THIS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY THOUGH. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST 300 TO 700 J/KG OF MU CAPE WITH
    LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY…BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
    THE SHORT TERM WELL SO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE VALUES SEEM REASONABLE. WHILE THE FORECAST CAPE IS STILL RELATIVELY SKINNY WHEN EXAMINING MODEL SOUNDINGS…IT IS A BIT FATTER AT -20C THAN WE
    TYPICALLY SEE HERE IN THE SPRING…SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER TODAY.
    THERE IS ALSO A BIT MORE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST LATER
    TODAY…ESPECIALLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE…THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SPRINGTIME. THIS
    MAY ALSO HELP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PERSIST AND TRACK A BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
    SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO.

    NAM CAPE VALUES HIGHLIGHT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
    AFTERNOON. THE SSEO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE AS WELL. MEANWHILE…THE SREF 3 HR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS HIGHEST
    OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY…PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY…WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT 3
    HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE CAN RECALL SEEING FROM THE SREF THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT…BUMPED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
    FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THIS SAID…THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
    FOR LATER TODAY SO THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS LATER TODAY.

  17. Garron near Washington square says:

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY MARK! I always forget yours is so close to mine, the 8th. Just another sign of my old age!

  18. Roland Derksen says:

    We had a cool showery day yesterday here in Vancouver BC (some heavy hail also reported) but not a large amount of precipitation in my location. Looks like the next few days are going to get warm. I could see my first 80F(27C) on the weekend.

  19. High Desert Mat says:

    Happy birthday Mark. Don’t do anything I wouldn’t do!! You know us taurus’s!!

    Mine is May 18th, was turning 4 the day Mt. St. Helens blew her top.

  20. Lee Wilson says:

    I know..its a dusting but I have give nature an A for her effort. https://youtu.be/XFsd47rToZs

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Weird Lollipop does weird things when it comes to posting a link to a video.
      Here is the same link from my kit Kate device.

  21. Lee Wilson says:

    To be honest I need the warmer weather I need it for our food plants.
    As for the Lodge closing, they can go solar and and do rain collection and become a whole different kind of resort.

    At any rate, I hope we get some warmer nights.
    This cold is weird this time of year. 39, every.. And just 2 days ago we had frost on roof tops?!

    I am so ready for this cold to be gone.

    Thankfully our green houses compensate for the wacky weather.

    As far as the ridging , I think it is going to be a new norm as will be the other thing.

    In truth, I think long range forecasting is going to grow difficult as things change.

    I also have a feeling were going to have even more intense thunderstorms popping up.

    Well that is my opinion.

    If it where me, I would say expected the unexpected and yet expect nothing.

    In other words watch closely, if the models miss something, you can use other means to predict the weather.

    At least my weather station has been spot on in a 12 hour period.

    In truth Mark, I hear you guys saying “You driving blind” with the long range weather.

    Is there a way to retune the models?
    Or has technology met its match?

  22. Actually kind of excited for my bday this year haha, temp near 80, payday, and a Friday. Woohoo!

  23. schmit44 says:

    Just 0.07″ at Battle Ground Lake today with a brief heavy shower around 2 pm. Otherwise it was quite cool with a max temp of just 59.4° with regular sun breaks late this afternoon. Heavy showers developed off to my south late in the afternoon totally missing my bucket.

  24. schmit44 says:

    Happy birthday May 6th to that young weather guy, Mark Nelsen!!!

  25. schmit44 says:

    5/5/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at UMATILLA RIVER N( 362 ft) & Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 56 at HEPP(311 ft) & BOARD(290 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 14 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    Beatty (63/20 ) (4320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.60″ at RED HILL(4400ft)
    0.50″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    0.50″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    0.50″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    0.41″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.41″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    0.40″ at SUMMIT LAKE(5600ft)
    0.40″ at GREENPOINT(3200ft)
    0.33″ at CW2654 Corbett(1050ft)
    0.32″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  26. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I watered my plants for the first time the other day. Its still so early!

    • W7ENK says:

      I’ve been watering, too.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I was counting on a good dumping today and tomorrow. Apparently not, although I see I got .33″ at home this afternoon. Enough for the new seeds I planted.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Could you show us your garden some time , that is when it’s ready. So Meteorologist do have hobbies?

      Hmm…seems you have an “unfair advantage” 😃

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Would like to If any one else is doing a green house this year…
      My prediction green houses will become popular more so as our climate changes.

      I believe this to be the case because weather will be very fickled. And will become difficult. To forecast in the newer future.

      Oh Mark, Happy Birthday.

      Oh.. And would like to see if any one has tried hydroponics or aquaponics.

    • W7ENK says:

      1/3 of an inch? Wow, I only got a trace, and that was in the morning.

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