ECMWF Weekly Maps: Warmer Than Normal Continues

It’s Thursday afternoon and another run of the ECMWF model and its ensembles to 32 days in the future.  That takes us to mid-April.

Surprise!  No big changes, the pattern we’ve seen off/on for the past 18 months, and this past winter will continue.  Upper-level ridging along/near the western coast of North America and cool troughing over the eastern half of the continent.

Take a look at the first two weeks, which goes through next week and then Oregon’s Spring Break.  Strong ridging is centered to our north, which will allow some weak systems to move by to the south.  We already see this in next week’s model forecasts.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

Weeks 3 & 4 which is basically the first half of April, show higher than normal upper-level heights remaining over or just west of us.  Systems that come through will be weaker than normal and temperatures should average above normal.  Early April may end up more like a typical early May.

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?  A lot for gardeners!

1. You are probably okay to plant cool-weather veggies in the next couple of weeks (carrots/beets/salad greens etc…).  Some years the constant cold and rain could rot these in mid/late March but not this year!

2. Unless there is some dramatic turnaround, early season veggies and berries could end up arriving much earlier than normal.  Like strawberries in early-mid May instead of late May.

3. You have a chance to get lots of work done outside in the next month, more so than in a typical rainy/cold spring.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps: Warmer Than Normal Continues

  1. It got up to 64F (17.9C) at my place today, which wasn’t quite as warm as I was expecting, but still very mild considering it’s not yet spring. The deluge is coming here overnight, however.

  2. growth inducing rain
    greenup disaster beckons
    hot fire fertilizer

  3. growth inducing rain
    greenup disaster
    hot fire fertilizer

  4. buffedman says:

    The current El Niño has about a 50-60 percent chance of hanging on through the summer, then we’re likely heading back a neutral winter later this year.

    • W7ENK says:

      Current SST in the ENSO 3.4 region is +0.48C (as of March 8). That’s below the +0.5C threshold for El Niño status. Even if SSTs rebound above that threshold next week, the clock technically starts over — and it has to stay there for 5 consecutive months.

      By definition, there is no current El Niño.

    • buffedman says:

      The SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions.The consensus of ENSO models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during (February-April), with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.

  5. Lee says:

    Just mowed the yard. before monsoons hit (trying to be snarky).

    Barometer took a really big nose dive from 3003 to 2983. and it is freaking muggy at 65% and it is 60 wait we just went to 61.

    • Lee says:

      Need Confirmation
      Issued by The National Weather Service Portland, OR
      Fri, Mar 13, 5:04 am PDT

      ... HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS WEEKEND...
      THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN SOME TIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL... HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES... WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES... WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE... WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 40 TO 50 MPH.
      CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS THE FINER DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
      
    • High Desert Mat says:

      Not good news for the fire season. That’s all we need, some warm rain up in the mountains so that the shrubbery grows and then dries out quickly for late spring and summer. Just adds fuel to the fires if its not going to be snow.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, that worked out quite nicely, now didn’t it…

      lol

    • Lee says:

      currently at 69 F,74 InHg.Winds 3-6 MPH with peek at 7 were at an average of 5 MPH.

      Kind of curious.
      What should the barometer be at to alert for a storm?
      or is this thing geared for mainly a thunderstorm? Or does it make a difference?

      I guess my question is
      What is the difference between a wind storm and a thunderstorm in relation to the barometric Pressure ?

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Not even a washout yet but the runs below Timberline Lodge are just about gone. Hurry buy your spring pass before it’s all melted!

    • W7ENK says:

      That makes no sense, Jason…

      That would be like buying playoff tickets when the Blazers are 2 down in the first round… Sure, they could still advance to the second round, but it would take a miracle for them to win 3 more in a row.

      Besides, the runs below Timberline are closed, the lifts aren’t running because there is no snow left on the ground. At least that was the case on Sunday/Monday.

      Save your money, leave your skis at home and go hiking instead.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I think he was being sarcastic Erik.

  7. W7ENK says:

    The first weekend in almost two months I’m not committed to plans away from home, finally a weekend I can stay at home and get some work done out in the yard/garden, and it’s going to be a total washout.

    How perfect!

  8. David B. says:

    Groan.

  9. schmit44 says:

    3/12/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 55 at BROOKS(187 ft) & PATSY Eddyville/(1210 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:39 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 21 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    DW7631 Redmond (70/32 ) (3025 ft )
    EW6796 Prinevill (69/31) (3773 ft)

  10. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Well this doesn’t put things into a very promising perspective:

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-drought-california-20150313-story.html

  11. Lee says:

    So I was not crazy planting peas , pumpkins yellow squash , cilantro, romaine lettuce, beefsteak and romano tomatoes and Brocoli.
    I was hoping planting those early would bring about a severe blizard..Oh Well I tried lol.

    So we hit a high of 71 today Here in Castle Rock Wa.
    My Weather station Says rain is on its way, but it is still learning.
    So far it’s been accurate. Oh and a barometer reading of….3006. and falling. we were at 309 InHg.
    I had to vent the green houses.

  12. schmit44 says:

    This is great news. Sunny warm spring weather is always glorious.

  13. Jason Hougak says:

    Pattern breakdown this summer, fog and drizzle like San Francisco!

  14. Chris s says:

    Mark any thoughts as to why this so called new and improved gfs keeps trying to break this pattern down past 10 days, only to eventually move towards the euro, albeit it seems like it takes it 4-5 days to do so. I just remember about 2 -3 weeks back when the gfs was adamant that we would see a big pattern change. It seems the accuracy has actually gone down with the new and improved version?? If that’s even possible, lol.😃

  15. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Just watch, when Saturday rolls around about half the people on the road are going to be scared to drive on the wet roads. Bleh.

  16. Work done in the next month? Um no I will be driving back and forth to the clinic at Tacoma General Hospital a lot under rain-less skies. :/

  17. Yaaawwwwwn! Same ole same ole.

  18. A “typical” spring isn’t cold, it’s COOL 😛

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