Winter is Definitely Over, But Some Mountain Snow

February 26, 2015

11pm Thursday…

Snow has been very slow to show up in Cascades today, with only a dusting at Meadows and Skibowl.  As a result I lowered tomorrow’s forecast to 4-8″ as a cold surface low pressure center tracks right over us.

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst

Beyond that, very little precipitation through the end of next week as upper-level ridging moves up close to the coastline.

Long range, the pattern is not very wet and models have gradually been moving towards some warmer upper-level ridging over us in the 8-12 day period.  Take a look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart, showing chilly air around Tuesday, then warming again.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Same thing on the GFS, although not as cold early next week.

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

This plus last night’s 32 day run of the ECMWF tell me that calling off winter 10 days ago was a good choice.  March weather is here and will continue.  Check out the 4 weekly maps from the monthly run:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Looks like the 3rd week of March may be wettest/coolest, but otherwise heights are near or above normal the rest of the month.   That ridge to our west or northwest doesn’t want to give up.

I’ll be going to the annual Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop in Seattle tomorrow.  I haven’t gone for a few years and it’s time to catch up.

If there’s something really good I’ll recap in a posting early next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen