Snow Finally Arriving In Cascades

10pm Wednesday…

Finally, an inch or two of snow on Mt. Hood this evening as moisture arrives.   Can you believe this?

MarkSnow_GovtCampJanuaryFebruary

Government Camp, at 4,000′ has only seen 2″ of snow in TWO MONTHS! That’s just about unprecedented in mid-winter.

There’s a decent chance we have hit bottom for “snow water equivalent” (snowpack on the ground).  Most of the Cascades average around 10% of normal.

MarkSnowpack_Oregon_PlusFacts

MarkSnowpack_Oregon_PlusFacts2

Obviously it is too late now to make up for all that lost snow…the snow season will end up below normal even if we have lots of snow in March and April.  The question is just “how far below normal” will it end up.

I expect up to a foot of new snow at/above 5,000′ in the Cascades by Saturday morning when the snowfall ends:

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Spring break is only slightly over 3 weeks away and 10 day maps don’t show a real wet pattern.  Definitely a little bit wetter than what we’ve seen over the past two weeks, but not a huge snowy setup for the mountains.  The 00z GFS shows less than 1.50″ precip for us in the next 15 days.  The 12z ECMWF has about 1.30″ precip in the next 10 days.

So the good news…

  • Up to 12″ new snow the next two days at the ski resorts
  • Sunny skies and bluebird conditions BOTH Saturday & Sunday
  • Expect lots of people due to pent-up demand for good snow!
  • A little more snow Monday, then mainly dry next week

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

24 Responses to Snow Finally Arriving In Cascades

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Drizzle outside tonight felt kind of strange. I mean it’s normal, but then what has been normal about this Winter. Even though we had a little drizzle here in Salem it was only .02. So there must not have been too much more snow up in the mountains. If we are lucky we we see a few more inches on Friday. Maybe 4-8 inches. And then a little more on Monday before the dry weather returns. I kind of miss the cold rainy nights during the Winter because it made you really appreciate those first warm days of Spring. Most of our Winter was like early Spring. I think I will take a walk tomorrow in the rain and look up and let it hit my face. I don’t think I will have too many opportunities to do that in March. In the meantime enjoy the rain Friday and the sunny weekend. Peace.

  2. Moosieman says:

    Looking like weatherdan may be spot on 60’s by the 8th Mr. Leroy. I think we can give up on an abrupt change now.

    • Purplehaze says:

      TPTB love Weather Dan’s warm bias so they are obviously listening to him. What’s you’re secret Dan?

  3. Mowa says:

    I live in Bend and we’d really like to see some snow out of this storm. Actually I think we’d be lucky to get more than 3″ with the way the jet stream is positioned. That would be enough to cover the icy snow up on the XC route from Bachelor to Big Meadow so we’ll hope. After this it doesn’t much look like the pattern is changing, but it typically does sometime in March.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    On the last post a remark was made that a high of 40 in early March constitutes an Arctic outbreak. An Arctic outbreak refers not to the temperature but the origin of the air mass. As an example let’s say on a March 3rd the freezing level is 7300 feet under a Pacific air mass. That night the temperature drops to 27 by 4:00 AM under clear skies. The dewpoint is 21 degrees. The clouds move in and at 7:00 AM the temperature is 34 degrees with a dewpoint of 27. Then the rain starts. Even though it is all rain the temperature is slow to respond. So during the day the high is 41 with a dewpoint of 40. But just because the high temperature is only around 40 does not mean we had an Arctic outbreak. Now if you were on the edge of an Arctic airmass sliding SE and you had a temperature of 47 and a dewpoint of 14 you would be under the influence of some modified Arctic air. Very dry but way too warm for snow. Now the CPC has us above normal for temps and below normal for precip in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. This takes us out to almost the mid point of March. After a quick 12-18 inches of mountain snow it looks like we go right back into warmer and drier weather. But at least we do get some snow in the mountains. Looks like a good shot of seeing more 60,s locally by the 8th of March. How many times this Winter have we seen some very promising models that just faded away. This looks to be another in a Winter of disappointments. What was it Shakespeare called it, our Winter of discontent. Hey maybe we can get a TRW on Friday. Peace.

  5. It’s not much, but at this point I’m ready to see snow-whatever amount we get! Some frosty nights coming in my area next week as well; -4C (25F) forecasted. That would be the coldest I’ve seen it here since the start of January.

  6. JJ78259 says:

    Fresh couple of inches of Snow in Indianopolis this morning sun breaking thru, winter will not give up here! 14 degrees out this morning.

  7. schmit44 says:

    2/25/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 49 at OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at Government Camp(5000 ft) & MT. HOWARD(7910 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7300 ft)
    Low: 13 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft ) & CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Lorella (58/16 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.50″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    0.43″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.39″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.39″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.35″ at Meacham(3724ft)

  8. High Desert Mat says:

    I cant wait for the upcoming campfire smell throughout all of summer, :sarcasm

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls, OR) says:

      Thankfully most of last summer I had wet convection. I only had about a 1-2 week window of bad smoke in early August, at least here anyway.

  9. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    If this persists and March doesn’t turn around with some colder weather and we don’t get some sort of snow pack going I’m going to wager we might just have one of the worst fire seasons this summer on record. Not trying to play doomsday but the Cascades (especially Southern Oregon) could see a roasting.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      A few months ago (around early December) I was joking to some of my friends that we’ll probably have to sell water to California by the tons and make some kind of pipeline to go down there. Now it looks like the case has worsened and I have to those words. Amazing how a drought can spread in just one season.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      eat*

  10. MasterNate says:

    Models are scary dry for early March. That ridge is still too close and its starting to look like an anticipating pattern change is not happening. Just a variation of the same old crap!

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