February is Warmer Than Every March Since 2008!

Even though it’s been warm, I didn’t realize that it’s been THIS warm!  The average temperature so far this month is running at 49.4 degrees.  That’s warmer than an average March and warmer than any March back to 2008.  Of course we still have 9 days left this month and the cooler nights coming up next week mean in the end we’ll drop back down a bit.   MarkFebruary_TempsVsMarch

Still, this will be our 3rd very warm month.  December ran 4 degrees above normal, January 2 above, and now February about 6 above.  Quite a bitterly cold winter eh?  Wow…

Of course this is related to the warm upper-level ridging we’ve seen over and west of the west coast of North America most of the winter.  That leaves the eastern 1/2 of the USA in the freezer.  Check out the lows this morning in the South.  Cape Girardeau, Missouri had the lowest temperature ever recorded in that location this morning…-19 degrees.  Nashville only had a HIGH of 20 degrees.  Atlanta was colder last night than Anchorage, and many parts of Kentucky were colder than the interior AND arctic coast of Alaska!

PLOT_Lows_Florida_vs_Alaska2 PLOT_Lows_Florida_vs_Alaska

We had a few weak showers pop up from the metro area north into Washington this afternoon.  Possibly we see another one or two tomorrow, but I see a mainly dry forecast for the next week.  Next real chance for rain is Thursday or Friday a week from now.

By the way, we get a shot of chilly air and gusty northeast wind on Sunday.  Models aren’t as wild with the pressure gradient and wind as they were 4 or 5 days ago.  But you’ll notice the chill even under the totally sunny skies.  Hard to believe temps in the mid-upper 40s most of the afternoon are “chilly” in late February, but that’s only because it’s been so warm lately.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

19 Responses to February is Warmer Than Every March Since 2008!

  1. Moosieman says:

    Weatherdan, I enjoy your posts. I also love cold weather in the winter and heat in the summer. I enjoy everyone’s take on the weather. The fact is even the best computer model of choice is still a computer model. The only thing I don’t like about the blog is the negativity people post towards others thoughts. That has nothing to do with the blog however it’s just humanity. Enjoy the weather good or bad. Peace

  2. JJ78259 says:

    80 degrees on this nice winter day and east of the Rockies to boot!

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    This from the the NWS discussion in PDX this AM.

    .LONG TERM…NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS…
    MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY…MODELS SEEM TO AGREE SUNSHINE AND NEAR
    TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
    MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER…BOTH THE GFS
    AND EC SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
    LATE NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY…BOTH MODELS INDICATE LONGWAVE RIDGING
    CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THROUGH THE
    EXTENDED FORECAST SO IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW LONG ANY WET AND COOLER
    WEATHER WILL ACTUALLY LAST. /NEUMAN
    &&
    So yes it looks like we will get some cooler and wetter conditions late next week but not too cool and perhaps not lasting all that long. Not surprising considering how warm it has been under that RRR that we have been under most of the last three years. If we are lucky we will at least a foot of snow up at Timberline. At this point it doesn’t look look like a long protracted cool and wet spell. Oh well what the models giveth the models taketh away. AM fz lvl only 5300 feet over Salem this morning. Unfortunately the precipitation is almost over in the mountains so very little chance of any snow up there. 51 already here this morning going up to the mid to high 50,s. Similar temps Saturday but a lot more sun than today. Sunday through Tuesday a lot of sun with temps close to 60. Then some cooler and wetter weather by next weekend. Hope you all enjoy your weekend. Peace.

    • Chris s says:

      Considering that the past 3 operational runs of the gfs have been way outside the ensemble mean, I am not really concerned that much at the moment. Seems once again Dan your forecasting in the moment. The euro weeklies posted this week showed a fairly significant pattern change starting the beginning of March, the gfs ensembles have looked absolutely fine, but I’d course the word of the nws and a couple operational runs and your changing your forecast again. Your warm bias is clearly showing in your forecasts… Which at this point seem to change hourly.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Hey Chris, meteorology 101, forecasts change. But not with you apparently right. Once you see something you like you stick with it no matter what, This weather discussion comes from the NWS. They have changed their minds. Those vaunted Euro models that you hang your hopes on have changed as well. I change my forecasts when conditions change. The NWS updates the forecasts every 6 hours. The Weather Channel changes their forecasts as needed. So does Mark when conditions call for it. How about this as an example Chris. PDX NWS forecasts the low clouds will lift after brief AM clouds and reach 86. But the clouds are a solid deck that last until Noon. Should they change their forecast to PM sun and 75-80 or should they stick to the 86. Of course the forecast changes. The NWS received new information from their computer and said so in their discussion. Of course it could change back to even colder and wetter. We’ll just have to wait and see. Now I can’t wait to see what you say if Mark changes his forecast for early March will you criticize him too or does he get a pass. This RRR as the NWS puts it has been around for about three years and the odds are that sometime it will change. But it could be months or years or even decades. The CPC is talking about long term climate change and megadroughts in the West. Ones that last for decades. This is probably not a megadrought but we will have to wait and see. I would like to see a big dump of snow in the Cascades in March. If we don’t get one then my power and water bills go up. But because I don’t give in to a childish whim and forecast something I don;t see I have a warm bias. Or is it that you have a cold bias. You feel that you deserve some cold weather and by golly if you see a forecast that looks like we might get some cold weather you hang on to it even when the models change. Yet you are not alone. Others sometimes have done the same as you. I guess I have been guilty of it a time or two as well. I know how much some of you wanted some snow and cold weather this Winter. Well it didn’t happen and now it’s probably too late. So we can all deal with the reality of the situation or you and Brian and Mat can take your little pot shots at me. I actually enjoy some snide remarks on this blog. It means at least somebody read what I had to say. I really do enjoy reading every bodies posts. Even when people disagree with what I have to say. Because I am sometimes wrong and I will freely admit it. I hope you have a nice weekend Chris and I also hope that next Winter you you get all the cold and snow you want. Peace.

    • PNA is forecast to tank, so a pattern change is likely to cool/wet/mountain snow.

    • chris s says:

      Somebody correct me if I am wrong but the euro weeklies come out monday? And I really think you are confusing a short term or in day forecast with a long term multi week general forecast. Again, You keep changing your tune every 6 hours it seems as to what is going to happen about 10 days or so from now, when all of us on here realize how unreliable anything on the operational runs really are past the 10 day period. Also again, even though the last few operational runs of the gfs and this am’s euro run were a bit warmer for long term, the ensembles at least the gfs still look fine, so to me that screams that the operational runs were somewhat of an outlier. I do like it colder Dan, but I have no bias in forecasting hot or cold when I see it. And as others have said on here, and all the information is pointing to a pattern change next month. I totally understand short term and in day forecasts Dan, but what your doing is taking that same principle and applying it to something 14 days out, which you just cant do. And almost everytime, you tend to come across as favoring a warm solution it seems, no matter what. I do enjoy and respect what you have to say, and you may very well be right about the upcoming month, but right now all you have on your side is a few operational runs, and the nws, which i think we all know around these parts fails more times than not, especially for snow events,etc. So yes Dan, I am sticking with my original forecast about the upcoming weeks, and not changing it because today the models said something different.

    • Euro ensembles > GFS ensembles
      That is all 😉

  4. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I’ve only had one low at/below freezing for this February. I’ve seen as low as 5, and we should get some early next week…but still, I think that low of 5 days will be bested.

  5. Those are intresting statistics, Mark. However I can do one better: My current mean temperature for February (48.5F) is warmer than any March I ‘ve recorded since 2005- and that one was just barely warmer than this month! Should we get above March 2005’s temperature, it would be warmer than any March here since 1992.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    Next winter let’s give the Eastern US a break and have the freezer door left open for the PNW with massive amounts of snow. One things for sure we will have cold spells but for the lowlands it doesn’t always bring snow.
    Check out the ice storm warning in Tennessee. Remember they just got hit with snow and ice. Now they could get an inch of snow followed by .25-.50″ of ice. No wonder hardwoods grow there. Douglas fir and conifers would be hit hard under a heavy load like that. They are gonna have a mess to say the least!

  7. schmit44 says:

    2/19/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 51 at BROOKS(187 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 11 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (62/16 ) (4360 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.31″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    0.30″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    0.28″ at WB7CYS Pendleton(1550ft)
    0.27″ at Pendleton Agricu(1487ft)
    0.18″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  8. Alaska just got done with a massive prolonged cold wave though. It was -20 to -50 over a large part of the State.

  9. The DLS airport reported an averaged temperature of 46.5 degrees F for the first 19 days of February. Not warmer than all of the past 8 Marches, but it has been about on par with a normal March. Magnolia trees in The Dalles look like they’re just about to burst into bloom.

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