ECMWF Monthly Run…A Bit Cooler

Last night was another monthly run of the ECMWF.  Here are the 4 500mb height anomaly charts.

Week 1:  Another dry one with ridging staying close to us over the next week, although just far enough west to keep offshore flow going at the surface.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2:  Same thing, although ridge is slightly farther west.  Looks like February will finish off with the same pattern; drier than normal with temps near to a little above normal due to offshore flow.  Strong sunshine the last few days of February means even a “coolish” offshore flow gives us normal to above normal temps.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3:  First week of March, ridging has pushed farther west and it looks near to below normal temperature-wise.  Drier than normal weather continues, at least to start.

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4:  This implies a possible significant pattern change with lower than normal heights over us…What do you know, it turns cool and likely wetter by mid-March…spring REALLY begins!

500za_week4_bg_NA

You can sure see the move towards cooler the last few days of February on today’s ensemble anomalies from the GEM & ECMWF 12z runs.  We may yet get a late season “backdoor blast” to finish off the season like we started in mid-November.

m500za_f360_bg_NA (1) m500za_f360_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

24 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run…A Bit Cooler

  1. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    The grass widows are out…they are early, but only by about two weeks.

  2. We don’t know what the weather in March will really be like- models or not. Personally, I don’t care if the upper ridge finally moves off- it didn’t do us much good where I live. We’ve had above normal amounts of rainfall and below average hours of sunshine all winter long. If it “cools off” at least the mountains will get some much needed snow.

    • David B. says:

      True, though the fact that the ECMWF (the most accurate model) and at least one other model agree on a pattern change does inspire confidence in the forecast. If the models stick with the change, its willl be reasonable to concluse it will happen.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      The probability that we’ll have a wet Spring is pretty high I’d say. Don’t quote me on this but I think it’s been at least 6 years since we’ve had both a dry winter (when I say dry I mean Jan. and Feb. as the Winter months in question) followed by a dry Spring.

      If that were the case we’d have horrible forest fires that’d make any other State’s problems look like a controlled blaze.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      October 1-February 12 in Salem normal precipitation is 24.39. So far we have had 24.92 inches. That is .53 inches above normal. We have not had a dry Winter. What we have had is a very Warm Winter. As for January and February which you specifically mentioned the normal for January 1-February 12 is 8.04 inches, We have had 8.40 inches. Where is this dry Winter you mentioned? We have had at least 3 atmospheric river events this Winter. It just hasn’t translated to mountain snow. So having a wet Winter and a dry Spring isn’t all that unusual. If those models that you mentioned stay with this pattern change for the next two weeks then I will be more likely to believe it. But really anything more than 10 days out is la la land no matter who is forecasting it. Peace.

  3. David B. says:

    At this stage, it’s probably too late to avoid a summer water shortage but anything helps. Once-in-a-decade bad beats epically bad. And its been a few years since our last cold, stormy spring.

  4. schmit44 says:

    2/12/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:68 at N7HAE Knappa( 105 ft) & US26 at Sunset R(1365 ft) & PRINEVILLE 4NW(2839 ft) & TILLAMOOK(11 ft)
    Low: 51 at SQUAW PEAK(4964 ft) & KING MOUNTAIN(4000 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:43 at Lake(6184 ft) & SUMMIT LAKE(5600 ft)
    Low: 18 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 39 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW (68/29 ) (2839 ft )

  5. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    I suspect the weeklies will change weekly…

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    63.5 here today in Battle Ground after a low of 36.5

    It’s my first day without measurable rain this month.

  7. I’m loving this weather because it seems to be the only calm topic on the news.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    Remember last November when we thought that the early season mini blast was a sign of a cold Winter. Well that sure didn’t work out did it. So maybe we finish out Winter with another one or two day mini blast, okay. That does not mean we are going to have a cold wet Spring anymore than we had a cold snowy Winter. Yet here we go again with the doom and gloom Spring weather blog entries that seems to populate this blog every year about this time of year. Now this ecmwf transition event isn’t supposed to take place for what four weeks. And we all know that if something is modeled to take place in four weeks then it has to come to pass right. How many times this Winter has Mark posted one of these maps and then just a few days later said the models have reversed themselves. Models have a very poor record going out 4 weeks. We call it la la land. Now it may come to pass and we do have a cool wet Spring. But probably not. More than likely we will get more of the same weather we have been getting all Winter long. Mild and dry with some cool wet weather interspersed. Peace.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      00z took out any threat of cold late next week and beyond for that matter, the gfs has been running very poorly last few days maybe it’s having a hard time with the coming pattern change.

  9. Paul D says:

    Time to move the school year to start in October and finish at the end of June so the kids are out of school when the weather is nice!

  10. vinnybob says:

    Just wait, we will get the crap sandwich this late winter early spring while the east coast will get the warm weather melting all their record breaking snow.

  11. Yep open up the flood gates in March and April. Summer party time it would appear according to these maps is trending towards July 5th.

    For those interested out there…

    I have a new Facebook page called “Mount Rainier Weather”. All are welcome to peak in if your interested in what is happening with the weather in the park.

    I wont be doing any forecasting there. Uh uh because I don’t have credentials like Mark and many paid forecasters have out there and let NWS Seattle and the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center do the heavy lifting.

    My posts on the page are of the latest and best observations I can get a hold of for each day. I had talked to a few former coworkers up there that I am good friends with and told them I would do my best to make park weather info more user friendly on Facebook.

    Anyway currently as of today… The snow pack at the weather station up at Paradise sits at 55 inches. The average depth for February 12th is 139.1 inches. That is only about 40% of normal which is actually better than a lot of areas in the Cascades of Washington and Oregon. Right now also one will be hard pressed to find good snow until you get to Narada Falls on the way to Paradise which way up around 4,500 feet. I heard from the volunteer Nordic patrol up there that cross country skiing over to Reflection Lake toward the Tatoosh Range is not all that great.

    Pray for snow up there everyone. I don’t want to see a bad fire season across the Washington and Oregon this summer. 🙂

  12. Brian Leroy says:

    Spring in winter and now winter in spring go figure.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Im not looking forward to another 10 inches of rain in March like last year that was ridiculous and of course the oso mudslide that was so devastating.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, what’d you expect? Summer lasted well into October, almost November. Summer in Fall, Fall in Winter, Winter in Spring, Spring in Summer…

      Such has been the pattern for the last 5 or 6 years. I thought we’d finally snapped out of that delayed seasonal pattern last year, but I guess it was just a lucky break. 😦

    • We haven’t had “winter in spring” since 2012, when it stayed pretty cold through the first week or so of April.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Blahhhhhhh………..

  14. So basically next week is going to feel more like fall than spring, with crisp offshore flow and likely down around freezing at night?

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