ECMWF Monthly Run…A Bit Cooler

February 12, 2015

Last night was another monthly run of the ECMWF.  Here are the 4 500mb height anomaly charts.

Week 1:  Another dry one with ridging staying close to us over the next week, although just far enough west to keep offshore flow going at the surface.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2:  Same thing, although ridge is slightly farther west.  Looks like February will finish off with the same pattern; drier than normal with temps near to a little above normal due to offshore flow.  Strong sunshine the last few days of February means even a “coolish” offshore flow gives us normal to above normal temps.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3:  First week of March, ridging has pushed farther west and it looks near to below normal temperature-wise.  Drier than normal weather continues, at least to start.

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4:  This implies a possible significant pattern change with lower than normal heights over us…What do you know, it turns cool and likely wetter by mid-March…spring REALLY begins!

500za_week4_bg_NA

You can sure see the move towards cooler the last few days of February on today’s ensemble anomalies from the GEM & ECMWF 12z runs.  We may yet get a late season “backdoor blast” to finish off the season like we started in mid-November.

m500za_f360_bg_NA (1) m500za_f360_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen