Last night was another monthly run of the ECMWF. Here are the 4 500mb height anomaly charts.
Week 1: Another dry one with ridging staying close to us over the next week, although just far enough west to keep offshore flow going at the surface.
Week 2: Same thing, although ridge is slightly farther west. Looks like February will finish off with the same pattern; drier than normal with temps near to a little above normal due to offshore flow. Strong sunshine the last few days of February means even a “coolish” offshore flow gives us normal to above normal temps.
Week 3: First week of March, ridging has pushed farther west and it looks near to below normal temperature-wise. Drier than normal weather continues, at least to start.
Week 4: This implies a possible significant pattern change with lower than normal heights over us…What do you know, it turns cool and likely wetter by mid-March…spring REALLY begins!
You can sure see the move towards cooler the last few days of February on today’s ensemble anomalies from the GEM & ECMWF 12z runs. We may yet get a late season “backdoor blast” to finish off the season like we started in mid-November.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen