Vacation Time

No new posts until Thursday the 12th…taking a few days off…Mark


117 Responses to Vacation Time

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Latest CPC forecast issued today has very cold air locked up in the East through the end of the month. Now the Midwest is getting to be really cold as well. Alas for us we will remain well above normal until mid to late next week. Then perhaps the ridge might retrograde a bit allowing as the NWS weather discussion puts it a bit cooler but still dry weather over us. The GFS metogram has a bit of precipitation for us the next 16 days. About 1/2 inch.With a somewhat cooler air mass and a bit of rain we might see some highs in the 49-53 degree range between the 22nd and the 28th. This would bring maybe a foot of snow down to meadows and Government camp with maybe a few more inches at Timberline. The thing is I’m just not convinced that this will pan out. We could sure use the snow in the Cascades I just don’t see a lot headed our way. Right now the ridge is centered off to our East over the Rockies. To get more than just a bit cooler the ridge would have to retrograde several hundreds of miles West. Not impossible but not likely I think. What I think will happen is that by the 21st the ridge will retrograde enough to the point that we drop from around 60 to around 50 for highs. That would be a little below normal but not really cold. At night though some places in the valley like HIO or Sle might drop to the 25-29 range. It might be possible for the ski resorts to make snow but I don’t see a big dump for the Cascades though. The thing is we are quickly running out of time to get a lot of snow up in the mountains. In the meantime some places in the valley should be in the 60-65 range the next few days. It was foggy in Salem this morning but with the higher sun angle we have now gone partly sunny and have moved up to 53. Should get to 57 this afternoon. The daffodils and camellias are blooming now which seems early to me. Peace.

  2. schmit44 says:

    2/11/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:63 at BALD KNOB(3630 ft) & EW6045 Prinevill(2884 ft) & QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft)
    Low: 51 at DW6006 Troutdale(262 ft)

    High:36 at WOLF CREEK(5699 ft)
    Low: 17 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Bly (OR 140 MP 5 (60/26 ) (4350 ft )

  3. Eugene Dave says:

    GFS long range now looking very interesting. Unfortunately, it’s about as reliable as my old Chrysler.

  4. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Nice to have some sunbreaks today and let my back yard dry out.

    44 degrees currently.

  5. MasterNate says:

    Interesting forecast by Art Douglas. He calls for cool spring here with systems dropping out of the gulf of AK. Hopefully that comes to fruition and we gain snowpack. He also says the climate will cool over the next 3 decades. That’s a bold statement. Good reading none the less.

    • MasterNate says:

      “In three decades, definitely, we’re going to see a cooler climate,” Douglas said.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      He just verified what I and others been saying about a cool wet spring on the way, and now the GFS is showing a cooler NNW flow next week and beyond.

    • lawduck says:

      Am I missing something? That is a 2013 forecast and article…..

    • MasterNate says:

      Fingers crossed

    • Kelley says:

      Unfortunately, the article you’ve linked to is from 2013.

    • jimbo says:

      Um. Look at the date. Published march 2013!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Normal High next week is 53 or 54 degrees. We will still be 1-3 degrees above normal next week. By the end of the month our normal high in Salem will be around 55 degrees. So even if we were to drop to 5 degrees cooler than normal for highs we are still looking for late month highs around 50. Also just because one person agrees with you does not verify your forecast. GFS does have us somewhat cooler at the end of the month with heights around 540. This would translate into some snow for Timberline. However not a lot of precipitation is indicated. Maybe 1 to 1 1/2 feet over the next 3 weeks. A real drop in the bucket. We would need at least 20 feet of snow at Timberline in the next 6 weeks to even approach normal. Very unlikely at this point. Also who is Art Douglas and what does he base his cool and wet Spring forecast on. The CPC has PDX with a 57% chance of having a warmer than normal Feb-Apr. And just a 20% chance of it being cooler than normal. The last day in Salem with a below average maximum was January 15th. That’s almost 4 weeks ago. The Winters of 2010 and 2011 had fairly good snowpacks in the mountains. We didn’t go from a super dry and warm Winter to a cool wet Spring. Our maximum snow depth at Timberline usually happens around the end of February or early March. After that the increased sun angle and generally warmer air masses usually means the snow depth is decreasing. I don’t know the average depth on March 1st but I guess around 180 inches. And what is it right now about 35 inches or so. So even if we had another 24 inches of new snow at Timberline by March 1 what would the depth be then? Maybe around 50 inches. Now I am not anti snow. But looking at all the data and other forecasters including Mark Nelsen, Cliff Mass, The CPC, and the NWS it does seem very unlikely to have anything but a disaster in the mountains this Summer. Now it could happen I will grant you that. But I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. Peace.

    • chris s says:

      A couple things Dan, 1st next week doesnt look above normal any more. Both the euro and gfs have come around to a pattern where we will be most likely seasonable temp wise i believe. 2nd, both models in the 10 day window moving forward show a pattern where we will definitely get pass elevation snow, probably even as low as 2-3k ft. I know you like it on the warm side, and although you say you dont mind a good snowfall, I cant help but think you have a warm bias going on that is making you forecast above avg for next week, and a 6000ft snow level after that when both models totally disagree with that. Models can still flip back, but they have been trending better the past few days, compared to a few days ago when it looked like we would have a death ridge going on early next week.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Lol, thought it said 2015 either way still think things will turn around.

    • MasterNate says:

      Sorry, wrong link. I just read his 2015 forecast and he said our cool wet weather will start in April and could persist through June and July. He also mentioned that if El nino persists into summer then look for a repeat next winter of warmer and drier. Not his exact words but who wants to hear that anyway.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Yes I do expect to see highs in the mid 50,s for at least the first part of next week. Then maybe low to mid 50,s for a while after that. That would be slightly above early next week and then slightly below normal by the 21st. As for snow down to 2k, no way. It looks like dry but somewhat cooler weather by late next week, Not lower level snow. Yes we might see some high pressure moving down from Canada with the ridge a little farther West so yes a little cooler but still dry. And guess what, a lot of you have a cold bias. When it looks cooler for us I see on this blog hey it looks like snow for Portland. Just this week someone posted about a snowstorm for Portland. But I have not said hey that’s a cold bias. If you go back to last Winter you will see that I did indeed forecast snow for Salem. And yes I would have liked to have seen a snowstorm in Salem. But it just has never looked like that this Winter. Sometimes some people on this blog want snow so much they predict it when it should be obvious that it’s just a fantasy. But hey nothing wrong with that. If you really believe in a forecast then post it. But to say that I have a warm bias is just plain wrong. I love a good arctic outbreak and would have loved to have seen another one this Winter. But the pattern never came together for one, Instead we have had a very persistent ridge over us most of the time. And when the ridge broke down we have gotten this atmospheric river with copious amounts of rain. As for snow down to 2k for us that would mean a SW flow over the Eastern 1/3 of the U.S. But the CPC has the cold continuing in the East and our temps falling from above normal to normal and the drier than normal conditions continuing. This goes out for the next two weeks. Also with our average highs continuing to rise each week. even below normal highs are seldom below 45 this time of year in Western Oregon. Now we can all go back to years past and find a few times when it was pretty chilly in late February and in March, but that is not the norm. But again Chris this may be one of those time when it does get real chilly over us. But here’s what would have to happen. We would need a trough moving down from the gulf of Alaska. It could happen but the 18z 500 mb gfs had a ridge over us with the Northerly flow off to our East and not our West. Then it had the flow going more Westerly. That would indeed mean cooler and wetter for us if it verified. With snow down to maybe 4k. That would be low enough for some snow at meadows. Just barely and not a lot. So we could have some snow down to 4k and some rain in the valley and still be warmer and drier than normal. But snow down to 2k. What pattern do you see Chris that would support that prediction. Please this is not to insult anyone because maybe you see something that I missed. In the meantime I will stick with my forecast of above normal temps into early next week. Then slowly falling to around normal or maybe a little below. Mainly dry until at least the 21st then maybe a little rain the last week of February with maybe a foot or so of snow down to maybe 4 to 5k. I am not trying to ridicule anybody so please don’t feel that way. I truly like to hear the opposing viewpoints of others. That is after all the purpose of this blog is it not. That we can agree or disagree with Mark or another poster as long as it is done in a civil manner with no profanity or taunting. Peace.

    • Chris s says:

      Dan I think your forecast is pretty spot on for next week, I just kinda got the feeling you thought it was gonna be above avg. The past few days the gfs has trended towards a more seasonable outcome for next week, and quite a few of the ensemble members say below normal temps next week. As for the time period staring about the 21st, I think we are seeing the same thing for the most part, but looking at the ensemble mean today, there are many days with 850 temps around the -3 area or so, which is good enough to get snow down to very close to 2000ft, and definitely 3000ft. But regardless of that, at least it will be a welcome change for a while to see something besides warm and wet and just plain warm. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      @MasterNate – I’m confused as to what he means by “…if El nino persists into summer…” considering El Niño never officially got started, and SSTs in the ENSO 3.4 region have been below the +0.5C threshold for 5, almost 6 weeks now.

      @Dan… I can’t even.

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Hope someone caught that sunrise! I didn’t!

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