Friday Night Quick Post: Wetter 7 Day Forecast

I’ve been sick the past 2 days, and just worked a scheduled half day today.  I squeezed in a mountain bike ride with my son out in Brightwood midday and it was NICE!  Mid-upper 50s and sunny on January 30th is a pretty good deal.  That plus mainly dry ground was a bonus.  I was surprised the parking lot was almost full on a Friday at 1pm when we left.

Just a few thoughts since it’s 10:40pm…

Mild weather continues through the foreseeable future.  00z GEM and GFS ensemble 500mb height charts still keep ridging near/over us through Valentine’s Weekend.  These are maps for Valentine’s Day itself:

gem gfs

4 days ago it looked like snow levels could be reliably in the 4-5,000′ range for the first few days of this coming week.  At that point I said we could see 8-15″ on the higher ski slopes.  That’s looking unlikely now…

MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst_2013

Too bad, we’re down to 14% of normal snowpack on Mt. Hood.  The ridging is looking flatter later next week though, which allows some wet storms to move through.  Note the GFS meteogram for Salem (Portland’s meteogram picks up too much SW Washington Cascades precip):

KSLE_2015013100_tx_240

Looks like a soaker next week.  Notice the new 00z ECMWF is a real wet too ending next Sunday morning

ecmwf_apcptot_f204_nw

That’s all, enjoy the sunshine Saturday (away from the fog)

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

59 Responses to Friday Night Quick Post: Wetter 7 Day Forecast

  1. JohnD says:

    Yep, hints of early spring were in the air today with only the slightest bit of imagination required. I would be buying into it all the more were it not for my Bostonian inlaws who are at the cutting edge throws of an historic cold and deep snowy winter weather pattern. But just one more month and who cares anyway–right?!

  2. Fool me once shame on you,
    Fool me twice shame on me,
    Fool me 92,748 times,
    You are a weatherman.

  3. High Desert Mat says:

    Beautiful day here in Redmond with temps around 50 and looking warmer.throughout the week as well. If nothing shows up on the models in next two weeks in pulling the plug on this winter for my area. Happy trails all!!

  4. josh "the snowman" from, everett wa says:

    Feels springlike. Btw, anyone who wants to see something funny, let’s clamor for mat to post his post superbowl haircut. He looks like Jim bosley….lol.

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    BTW, 19 years ago today, I recorded my lowest temp in all of my weather recording at 7.2 degrees. I remember there was quite a bit of snow on the ground, and my hair was freezing out at the bus stop 🙂

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    4.31″ for my station in Battle Ground for January. That’s my driest January in the 5 years here.

    Average high was 49.8, and the average low was 35. Mean temp of 42 which was 3.8 degrees above the average.

    Something else notable was the lack of wind and corresponding fog. My average daily high wind speed was just 8 mph with a peak wind gust of only 21 mph for the month.

    Along with that was 17 days of fog.

    Here’s to hoping that was the most boring January I’ll ever experience, but then again I have said that numerous times in the last decade.

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Misty, rainy, and not too warm like the southern valley here. 46 with 0.25″ so far.

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “Photoshop heaven? I think it is real…what do you think is happening?”

  9. schmit44 says:

    2/1/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at EW3367 Coos Bay( 98 ft) & LONG PRAIRIE(1093 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & MCDERMITT 26N(4464 ft)
    Low: 52 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at BARNHT(894 ft)
    Low: 18 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    Lorella (49/19 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.73″ at LAGRANDE 1(3079ft)
    0.72″ at EW4395 Milton Fr(3455ft)

  10. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Welp…I guess if I were the person in charge of starting to hold back water in the reservoirs in western Oregon, I’d be talking to my managers about now. I might be hinting that there is a very low likelihood of any snow pack developing in the next few months to rely on recharging the reservoirs to full capacity this spring. I might even suggest that they begin filling up the lakes pretty soon…

  11. schmit44 says:

    Congratulations to Karl S Bonner whole led 7 categories for the Jan 2015 Weather Contest crushing everyone for the monthly title. Here are the final standings. Everyone got penalized due to the 14 days of fog which blew away the old January-fog-days record of 11 days.

  12. It shocked me when i heard rain on the roof this morning and saw that it is only 37°.

  13. Farewell to a mild and dreary January! We were way above normal in temperatures here (Vancouver, BC) just like you folks, but unlike you we had above normal rainfall also. The Pineapple Express struck here twice in January, making up over 72% of my total rainfall of 8.40 inches

  14. schmit44 says:

    1/31/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft) & EW3367 Coos Bay(98 ft)
    Low: 55 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft) & EW3367 Coos Bay(98 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at NORTH POLE RIDGE(3480 ft) & EW3836 Weston(3504 ft)
    Low: 7 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    Sand Creek (US 9 (55/13 ) (4525 ft )

  15. schmit44 says:

    JANUARY 2015: PDX just set its all-time record for the month of January with 14 days of dense fog. The old record was 11 days set back in 2009.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      If it was that bad at PDX, I wonder how much worse it was (is) here in the mid- southern part of thevalley.

  16. JohnD says:

    Ying-Yang; equal opposites; etc.
    We sit in one of the most horribly stagnant weather patterns ever while the NE-US experiences historical severe winter weather anomalies never before seen. (A SECOND HUGE “Nor’easter” on tap for Monday b-t-w.) These are emotionally challenging times for we impassioned PNW weather hobbiests and that is for sure.

  17. vernonia1 says:

    Dang it….can someone link me to this page with no frames….Chrome made it go away!!!

  18. David B. says:

    No sun up this way today. Inversion held strong all day long.

  19. Got stung by a bee in a wood pile today. Hurts like a b***.

  20. PurpleHaze says:

    BTW Mark will you please push the snowstorm button on you’re fancy dancy weather control panel please? You know that pretty icon with a snowflake?

  21. PurpleHaze says:

    You may think we are fine now due to having (some) rain in low elevations but December was the only month of average rainfall (and most of that rain was the warm variety) keeping snow levels high.

    In the summer time we are going to be high and dry which it will take a major shift in the ocean telecommunications at this stage to remove the warm SST’s off our coast which I hate the most.

  22. MasterNate says:

    Low of 30 here. Forgot what that felt like.

  23. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Besides the lack of snow in the mountains, I’ve loved this winter. Hiking, biking and spending time outdoors… In January? It’s amazing!

  24. High Desert Mat says:

    Must suck to be the bearer of such bad news repeatedly this winter. Sorry Mark, get better.

  25. Linda says:

    Feel better soon Mark………we missed you and it was great to see you a few minutes ago on the 11pm. I’m sure bummed about the lack of snow………got friends on Long Island and have been a little jealous!

    • catalin stoica says:

      BTW, can you, please, release the January top when the month will be over? I am curious to see who’s predictions were the most accurate. Thank you!

  26. schmit44 says:

    1/30/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 54 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at EW4395 Milton Fr(3455 ft)
    Low: 11 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
    CRANE PRAIRIE (49/14 ) (5500 ft )

  27. Wetter but still warm. Say bye bye to the rest of snow pack.

    • PurpleHaze says:

      This warm rain stuff only brings temporary relief. Without that snowpack we will be hurting and there will be water fights in and around Portland comes July/August unless summer winds up doing a 180 on us and we get wet systems but then that will be bad for farmers since crops are in mature stage then.

      Drought and water rationing or storms and high food prices from failed crops. Take you’re pick!

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