Another run of the ECMWF out to a month. 4 maps, one for each of the next 4 weeks showing average 500mb heights and anomaly.
Week 1: We already know what it’s going to show, ridging in general this week and then a stronger ridge this weekend. No surprise. This finishes off January…geez, what a dull month.
Week 2: Ridge is pushed to the east a bit. What you don’t see is a wetter pattern during this period. Several slightly cooler troughs/weather systems move through. The ECMWF is actually pretty wet during this period and the operational shows cold enough temps around the 2nd-4th for mountain snow. This could be helpful for Timberline and Meadows, but probably not enough snow low enough to get the other ski areas re-opened.
Week 3: Wow, ridge pops back over us. The operational run had a mammoth upper-level high right over us for Valentine’s weekend, just like what we went through this weekend.
Week 4: Ridging is there, but a little weaker. Still, the pattern is amazingly persistent. Notice the deep trough way out in the Pacific doesn’t go anywhere in the entire month! This takes us to within a week of March. The operational run (not the ensemble average) had a shot of cold air right around the 16th-17th. It’s interesting that the operational run one week ago showed something similar at the same time.
The takeaway thoughts are the same as the last run on Thursday and last Monday.
- Milder than normal weather is going to continue through at least the first half of February
- There isn’t going to be a sudden swing to cold & wet this year like early last February
- But we could get some decent rain and mountain snow NEXT week.
- No sign of lowland cold and/or snow through the first half of February either.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen