ECMWF Weekly Maps

7pm Monday…

Another run of the ECMWF out to a month.  4 maps, one for each of the next 4 weeks showing average 500mb heights and anomaly.

Week 1:  We already know what it’s going to show, ridging in general this week and then a stronger ridge this weekend.  No surprise.  This finishes off January…geez, what a dull month.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2:  Ridge is pushed to the east a bit.  What you don’t see is a wetter pattern during this period.  Several slightly cooler troughs/weather systems move through.  The ECMWF is actually pretty wet during this period and the operational shows cold enough temps around the 2nd-4th for mountain snow.  This could be helpful for Timberline and Meadows, but probably not enough snow low enough to get the other ski areas re-opened.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3:  Wow, ridge pops back over us.  The operational run had a mammoth upper-level high right over us for Valentine’s weekend, just like what we went through this weekend.

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4:  Ridging is there, but a little weaker.  Still, the pattern is amazingly persistent.  Notice the deep trough way out in the Pacific doesn’t go anywhere in the entire month!  This takes us to within a week of March.  The operational run (not the ensemble average) had a shot of cold air right around the 16th-17th.  It’s interesting that the operational run one week ago showed something similar at the same time.

500za_week4_bg_NA

The takeaway thoughts are the same as the last run on Thursday and last Monday.

  • Milder than normal weather is going to continue through at least the first half of February
  • There isn’t going to be a sudden swing to cold & wet this year like early last February
  • But we could get some decent rain and mountain snow NEXT week.
  • No sign of lowland cold and/or snow through the first half of February either.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

66 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. schmit44 says:

    1/28/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at Port Orford( 0 ft) & EW6494 Florence(64 ft) & EW3638 Yachats(33 ft)
    Low: 52 at EW3638 Yachats(33 ft) & DW1265 Newport(164 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 17 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Worden (57/23 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.21″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.20″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    0.20″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    0.16″ at DW5310 Happy Val(610ft)
    0.15″ at DW8818 Damascus(600ft)
    0.15″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    3rd 60 degree day in January. That’s a first for me!

  3. Joshua says:

    18z GFS operational has some nice eye candy at the end of the run. I’m not holding my breath.

    • Eye candy? So the possibility of snow you are saying?

    • There have been some hints that mid-February we might get some colder weather. Though they seem to be perpetually at the end of the run.

      Any who, 18Z OP could give us a little bit of snow at the bitter end of the run.

    • Sapo says:

      Yes, the 18z GFS operational has some nice eye candy for sure, but it probably won’t happen. Although, as Mark mentioned in his post, the operational ECMWF had a shot of cold air around 16th-17th…Some uncertainty in the forecast around the range, but I highly, highly doubt it.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      At this point we’d need something historical. We have almost no snow in the Columbia basin in either Washington or Oregon and the Cascades are also lacking snow (severely). Any arctic air push from the North in mid February (which is the turning point for us in regard to sun degree) would have to be for the record books. I don’t mean to be a downer but I really don’t see us getting something more aggressive then a December of 2008 setup in mid February. I just don’t.

    • Me neither jake but i’d like to get atleast a couple inches of snow.

    • The pattern here is surely set
      What we have is what we’ll get
      Pick the model and place your bet
      But sure as fog is misty wet
      no winter weather is forecast yet.

    • Wow Boydo! Impressive!

    • Brian Leroy says:

      00z must be an outlier im sticking with the 18z.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I think Brian and Dan should get together and do circle jerks with the warm biases. Good idea guys, lets keep the notion that warm in winter is good for the environment let alone dry, and think it’ll stay that way forever and we turn into a San Francisco climate. It’s called an average for a reason and it always sooner or later balances out.

      Brian and Dan = reach around. geeeezzzzz

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Mat ur a piece of u know what, the 18z was showing cold and snow and I was for it then the 00z came in and it took away so I rooting for the 18z, i don’t get what ur prob is with me man, grow some balls and get over it.

    • I don’t think anyone is insinuating that we could get a major snowstorm ala December 2008 in February. But, a storm of the scale of what we had last February is obviously still possible into mid-February. There wasn’t significant snow in the Columbia Basin with the 2014 storm. Just bitterly cold arctic air (Pendleton had highs in the teens).

      But, there is no strong signal that this sort of setup is in the cards.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      It seems that You can always count on Mat to say something stupid or offensive, or in this case both. Little children make claims based on fantasy. Most responsible adults however are based on reality. Maybe Mat should start acting like an adult and less like a little child. Meteorology is a science, not a fantasy ruled over by magic spells and wizards. Just because I like a nice sunny mild day in January doesn’t mean I will say one is on tap unless it looks like that is what we will get. As for a warm bias which Mat constantly harp on yes I do prefer warm over cold. But I call my forecasts as I see them, not as I wish them to be. As for your filthy insinuations about calling me a sex pervert, this should get you on moderation if not an outright ban. And if you expect to goad me into an offensive rant like Rob after he is insulted by some churlish troll then you are mistaken. I would say grow up Mat but you have shown ample evidence that it is unlikely to come to fruition. Have a nice day Mat. Peace.

  4. schmit44 says:

    1/27/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at PRINEVILLE 4NW(2839 ft) & DW0460 Sisters(3251 ft)
    Low: 53 at LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: 17 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    PRINEVILLE 4NW (61/29 ) (2839 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.35″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    0.32″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)

  5. PurpleHaze says:

    Don’t go to Western Weather if you are looking for any hope. Nothing but a big steaming pile of crap over there.

    Anyways I REALLY hope the flood gates open up in March and we get dumped with storm after storm from the NW but then people will whine and grumble about spring break being a disaster on here.

  6. JohnD says:

    All I can say is: “Sad”! I am a born and raised Western Oregonian while my wife is from Massacusetts–the current winter weather bullseye. Insult to injury. At least it should be easy to get into the Sisters Wilderness early this year! Let’s get through February and then all this won’t be much of an issue anymore until next year.

  7. Lurkyloo says:

    At least we have the Superbowl to look forward to. I’m curious to see what the 12th Man rolls out in response to the Patriots’ low ball pressure thingamajiggy. Should be funny …

  8. Guess what MIGHT be on the way for early February! Possibly one last taste of wintry temps before we pull out the forks?

    <a href="http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20150127185749-15610-0065.gif&quot;

  9. Had a maximum temperature of 63F yesterday (March 26). That’s a tie with my highest ever temperature for a January day since January 20, 1981.

  10. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    I love winter weather, but this weekend was glorious you gotta admit. Low-mid 60’s in January?! It easily could have been accompanied with monsoon rains. Bright side folks. I’m just worried this pattern will flip just in time for spring/summer and it’s 55 and pissin rain in mid June all over again.

    Anyone got stats for the NW on heavy NE snow winters? Blizzards of 1888, ummm, 7ty something, 86?, 94, etc? I’m bad with dates

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      After two slightly cooler than normal Summers in 2010 and 2011 the last 3 have all been well above average. So why assume that we are going to have another cool Summer just because we have had a mild Winter. Since 1990 the only cool Summers we have had are 1993, 1996, 2000, 2010 and 2011. That’s 5 out of the last 25 Summers. So we have about a 20% chance of having a cooler than normal Summer anytime. And this year probably less than that. Most likely it will be warmer then average just not as hot as last Summer. Peace.

    • Brian Leroy says:

      Personally I think will see an even hotter summer then last year were already having highs in 60’s and some 70’s in January. imagine what JJA will be like lots of 90 and 100’s is what im guessing, that’s just my wishcasting of course.

  11. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Will the next person off the cliff pack some forks for the rest of us. Great BBQ food without the essentials down here…

  12. I think it’s now pretty obvious that we aren’t going to get anymore winter weather in the lowlands of the PNW this season. Which is what you would typically expect in an El Nino year anyway. The best we can hope for is a few weak Pacific storms to come in that are cool enough to get snow down to 3,000-5,000′. Maybe we’ll get a couple of them in between some early-season warm spells in February and March.

    Luckily we’ve had enough rain so far this season, that the water tables in the lowlands aren’t droughting up like they can in a drier El Nino season. I remember the 2004-05 year had rather ugly drought conditions setting in over the southern Willamette Valley by February and early March….then the floodgates opened for a couple months and washed away any drought fears.

    So as long as we don’t get too dry over the next 2 or 3 months, I say it’s time to move past thoughts of snow and cold for the winter and start looking forward to our first really solid False Spring weather regime of the season. I’d place my bets that by the time we get to week 3 on these ECMWF maps, we’ll be starting to feel the transition out of fake cold and inversions.

    • I seriously doubt it’ll be hot and dry enough to burn our palm trees away, Erik. Sorry to disappoint you.

    • What I start thinking about (and hoping doesn’t setup) are the long hot summer days with numerous Cascade wildfires that spread smoke into the valley. Not my idea of a great summer at all: hot with very poor air quality. The implications of a dismal snow pack may be a foreboding…

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      Double edged sword for a hiker like me.

      Less snow means earlier entry into the high back country.

      The huge downsides are, less water (for drinking, making pretty scenes etc)

      Less wildflower displays

      Very dusty trails

      Higher chance of wildfires either burning up beautiful forest trails, or preventing entry do to dangerous conditions.

      That being said, each year varies. And, the Dollar Lake fire which burned up Vista Ridge, though devastating, is a great way to see nature rejuvenating.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      I seem to remember the summer following the non-winter of 76-77 was a cool moist one.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Yes and no Boydo. Overall that Summer was cooler than normal. But from mid July to mid August the average maximum in Salem was about 95 degrees. July 19 through August 13 were all above 80 in Salem. 18 of those 32 days were above 90 and 6 were above 100. Then Summer for the most part ended. After a March through May Spring that averaged out just about average June of 1977 was warmer and drier than normal. 26 days of at least 70, 11 days of at least 80 and a 90 on the last day of June. Rainfall was just under .75 and fell on just two days. After a mild first half of July when only 4 of the first 13 days reached 80 ( all reached at least 70 and were dry ) Summer heat took off.34 of the next 37 days hit at least 80. After August 19th however only 6 more days reached 80 with the last being on September 13th. This also happened during cool Summers in 1971, 1980, and 1983. A hot spell of at least 30 days in length. So yes overall 1977 was somewhat cooler than average but a big chunk was very warm. Summer just ended a month earlier than usual. Peace.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      P.S Between August 20 and September 16 we had 1.7 inches of rain. The total from June 4 through September was 1.99. All but.15 falling on just 3 days during that span.So doesn’t seem to rainy to me. Peace

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      Thanks for the info. But somehow my brain only remembers the cooler days.

  13. schmit44 says:

    1/26/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:73 at MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft) & GREEN MOUNTAIN(3064 ft)
    Low: 56 at DALY LAKE(3600 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at RED BUTTE(4460 ft)
    Low: 16 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (62/22 ) (4360 ft )
    CROW FLAT (56/16) (5172 ft)

  14. Goducks09 says:

    The mega east coast blizzard just adds insult to injury… Time to stop looking at the models for a few days…

  15. David B. says:

    Time for the fork graphics yet?

  16. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Bleh..

  17. Mark

    Yep looks like a lot more of the same on these maps for sure. I am still wondering when the flood gates will open this coming spring though to keep us wet until July 5th which has happened in the past more times than I want to mention here.

    It’s interesting to note in the snow drought season of 2004-05 the snows did not starting coming up at Paradise until March. In fact it created kind of a hold pattern to wait and see if the high country roads were going to be opened early that year in some places such as Sunrise and Chinook Pass. That lousy season only produced a whopping just a little more than 400 inches of snowfall up there. In March and a bit into April the snow pack did reach 7 feet at one point which is still a total joke for the time of the year it was. Typically Paradise has like 15 to 20 feet of snow on the ground well into the spring with large snowfall years having snow well into July and in even some cases August. I remember 2004-05 so very well because I hiked the Paradise meadows in June and there was not a flake of snow to be found below around 6,500 feet.

    Anyway right now the maps would indicate to me the same sort of pattern is going to develop. The one other thing I should mention here also is that the meadows were quite lush form all the at least earlier spring rain but when there is no snow from June onward that just makes for a lot more foliage to dry out into the summer causing an even bigger fire danger IF the summer is not a wet one which it could end up being since we have had so far a winter that has not been anything to surely shout about.

  18. Dringus says:

    Never mixed out here on the west side – foggy doggy all day.

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