Wet Weekend!

11pm Friday…

We’ve got a very wet system moving in tonight.  I think 1-2″ rain is likely in the valleys west of the Cascades, not flooding-worthy, but quite a soaker!

A secondary surface low develops west of the Oregon Coast around 4pm tomorrow and deepens about 10 millibars by early Sunday morning making landfall along Vancouver Island.  This is a setup for strong winds at the beaches.  Gusts in the 60+ range are likely late in the evening and early overnight hours.  Gusts 30-40 mph are likely here in the valleys too

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys2 MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

The mountains are going to be assaulted by at least 2-3″ of rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Not good, but definitely not enough to dramatically wash away the base totals.  But SATURDAY IS NOT THE DAY TO SKI.  Much better Sunday and Monday as snow levels fall to around 4,000′, then almost down to 3,000′ Monday morning. MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst  Apparently that’s the best we can get this season because we are going right back into upper-level ridging for at least next calendar week.

Long range maps are still hanging onto the ridging in general through the end of the month, although there are quite a few variations on what comes through the ridge precip-wise and how many times it flattens.  Here’s the GFS ensemble 500mb height map for NEXT Sunday:

gfs_Saturday30th

Then a week later…Saturday the 30th:

gfs_Saturday30th

The big ridge is gone but weak ridging is still over us with troughing offshore.  Looks a bit wetter then.

The ECMWF (from this morning) is similar but without the cold trough in the eastern Pacific.

ecm_sunday_31st

GEM (Canadian) is surprisingly similar to the ECMWF:

can_31st

As I mentioned in a post earlier this week, looks to me like January may go down as a real boring weather month.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

76 Responses to Wet Weekend!

  1. Ashley watson says:

    It sure would be nice to know what has caused our crapfest winters the last 15 years +. I mean we have had a few good days or week or two but for the most part it has really stank to high heaven. If I found out the humboldt current was the cause and it wasn’t going to fix itself I would take the next plane to east of the rockies.

  2. W7ENK says:

    At my location [Milwaukie]:

    2.20″ of rain precip midnight Saturday to midnight Sunday.

    0.15″ more on Sunday, for a storm total of 2.35″

    It was a good call.

  3. buffedman says:

    What happened to el nino this year ?

    • W7ENK says:

      Here’s the most recent one…

      You can clearly see that +0.5C conditions only lasted from November through December, SSTs are now back down to +0.37C, which falls short of the 5 consecutive month threshold for being officially considered an El Niño.

      Better luck next time, I guess.

  4. PurpleHaze says:

    Edit. I mean Humboldt. I keep forgetting there is a D in it.

    • GTSiK' says:

      Not only that, but “all together” should be altogether.

      You were batting .750 on “Humboldt”, though….

  5. PurpleHaze says:

    Does anybody know what the status is of the Humbolt current and if it’s being killed off. I hate to use that word but I wonder if our crappy winters and constant SW flow might be a result of the weakening Humboldt ocean current that usually brings down the polar maritime weather that delivers the snow to the mountains.

    If the Humboldt current were the vanish all together there would be no more source to draw colder storms that bring in the mountain snow and that would explain the warmer SST’s just at the west coast where the current normally would be.

    What would that do long term for our climate if the Humbolt current were to vanish and we don’t get the usual storm track?

    • W7ENK says:

      Is this the Humboldt Current you’re asking about? I wasn’t sure, you didn’t say it quite enough times. Humboldt Current, right? The Humboldt Current??

      This one???

      The Humboldt Current in the Southern Hemisphere off the coasts of Chile and Peru that doesn’t have any effect on PNW weather whatsoever?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humboldt_Current

      If so, then yes. This particular Humboldt Current is definitely the cause of our warmer winters up here in the Northern Hemisphere.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Re the Humboldt Current, labeled in W7’s graphics as Peru (Humboldt) Current:

      I believe that the two – Peru (Humboldt) Current and the Humboldt Current are the same. I think that, for clarity, we should simply use the term “Humboldt Current” in any future discussion of the Humboldt Current.

      In my Humboldt opinion, any way…

    • dharmabum says:

      Even on MLK day you can’t be nice or congenial, you probably must live by yourself.

    • W7ENK says:

      lol

      Grumpy much, db?

      Laugh a little and loosen up, it was funny. Even Germantown got it, and he’s one of my biggest fans! Well played, BTW.

    • GTS1K' says:

      anyway – hehehehe

    • GTS1K' says:

      Must be cloudy there in the Hundred Acre Wood or wherever.

      I believe “…probably must…” is redundant.

      We can check with the Department of Redundancy Department – just not today – they’re closed.

  6. Brian Schmit says:

    1/18/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at DW2789 Milton Fr(1358 ft) & EAST BIRCH CREEK(1617 ft)
    Low: 54 at CW2527 Florence(46 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 11 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    EW2055 Prairie C (53/22 ) (3547 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.80″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    2.21″ at EW2396 Hillsboro(430ft)
    2.18″ at CW3808 Enterpris(3927ft)
    2.00″ at GREENPOINT(3200ft)
    1.98″ at RYE MOUNTAIN(2000ft)

  7. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    If you go driving up into the mountains this winter, give the orange snow stakes along the highway a howdy. They’re not feeling well. They’re feeling a bit un-needed… as if their job is in jeopardy. They are there to let us know where the edge of the road is. But with nothing but cinders on the road side, we hardly notice them. So just give em some love. They work hard for us. They are proud of their job and would appreciate a little wave as we pass them by on warm winter’s day…..
    Maybe next winter snow stakes, maybe next winter.

  8. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    This winter has been pretty weak / terrible temperature wise. We still have spiders crawling around the family home. They’re even trying to make webs along the ceiling and window sills. I don’t recall this occurring any other winter by my recollection.

  9. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Dunno if anyone noticed the lighting chart, but I got several CG and CC strikes out here around 2:30 PM along with a whalloping hail & rain downpour. I was pouring concrete in the barn, or I would have sent out the APB. Glad the work was all undercover!

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    2.93 inches of rain in Salem since Friday afternoon. Too bad most of the precip in the cascades was rain. Could have been a monster snowstorm up at Timberline. Had some thunder in Salem this afternoon. But at least the steady rain has gone showery. Now skies are partly cloudy with 55 degrees. 61 yesterday and a warm low this morning of 49. Sure feels like March out there. Peace.

  11. Nice hailshower just passed through.

  12. David B. says:

    Been ramping down in intensity since 9:00 AM. Not a good sign to see a piece of a shingle in the gutter the morning after a wind storm 😦 .

  13. MasterNate says:

    1.44″ last 24hr, gust to 34 from the west, 49 degrees now. Looks like spring officially starts late next week into the weekend. Making camping plans now before the parks fill up.

  14. Hal in Aims says:

    another mess…….just get one cleaned up and bam……….5th one since October…….

  15. David B. says:

    Quite the wind storm up this way. Wind Advisory was updated to a High Wind Warning after it hit and proved stronger than expected. Roared most of the night, and still at it. Haven’t lost power yet (cross fingers).

  16. I ended up with 1.33″ yesterday. Much less than some areas in the immediate metro!

  17. Snow Maniac says:

    Power now out on Bull Mountain! Winds still howling! Surprised the NWS didnt issue a wind advisory or anything.

  18. Garron near Washington square says:

    You can sure tell the ground is saturated right now! I’ve had some power surges with up to 25 mph winds. Transformers are failing with bright blues flashes.

    https://www.portlandgeneral.com/safety_outages/outages/outage_updates/outage_map.aspx

  19. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Some of these wind gusts are insanely loud… Kinda surprised.

  20. Brian Schmit says:

    1/17/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:63 at Corvallis Munici( 246 ft) & EW0059 Myrtle Po(174 ft) & North Bend Munic(16 ft)
    Low: 55 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at WOLF CREEK(5700 ft)
    Low: 12 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    WEST BIRCH CREEK (62/31 ) (1626 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    5.03″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    4.81″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    4.38″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    4.10″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    4.03″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    3.17″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    3.08″ at DW7321 Portland(256ft)
    3.06″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    3.01″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)

  21. WEATHERDAN says:

    60 with some light rain in Salem at 8:00 PM. This is now the 12th straight month with a max of 60 or more. The 16 day GFS meteograms now show no snow or cold out to February 2nd. It seems very unlikely now that we will get any valley snow this Winter. Today was our last sub 5:00 PM sunset until November. As for me having a warm bias the answer is yes and no. I base my forecasts on available data not wishes. But yes I do prefer warm to cold. So what. If I thought a snowstorm was coming I would say so. But I don’t see any coming. And we should get used to Winters like this. The reality is our climate is changing. It is warming up. As to why I will let the scientists argue that one out. Now of course we will have cold Winters with snow in the future. Just not so many as in the past. Earths climate is always changing. Sometimes getting colder sometimes getting hotter. Right now we are getting warmer. So those who like cold Winters will be disappointed more often than not. But even in colder times The valley never got a lot of snow. I have an old weather pamphlet from 1965. It shows Salem averaging 7.4 inches of snow per year. Not a lot even 50 years ago. In the meantime we will still have a lot of exciting weather to talk about. Stay dry my friends. Peace.

  22. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    How warm would the temp need to get where you would call it “false spring”?

  23. 1.10″ here and 57 degrees. Warmest temp I’ve ever recorded in January in the 5 years at this station.

  24. David B. says:

    Rain is starting to pick up up this way, and that’s after it’s been raining all day. 1005 mbar and still falling.

  25. Lurkyloo says:

    It’s breezy outside and feels quite warm now …

  26. JohnD says:

    Still…the fact of the matter remains that we are still in–and will continue to be–in the theoretical winter weather window through next month and even a little bit beyond. Surprises can–and do– sometimes occur. We’ll see…

    For myself today, rain be damned! I took a 6 miler with rain gear on and it was pretty nice!

  27. vernonia1 says:

    Is there supposed to be wind tonight?

  28. vernonia1 says:

    got the life raft inflated….

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Keep your cell operational. When you come floating down scapp/vernonia hwy, I’ll throw you a line!

  29. Alohabb says:

    I’m ready for summer.

  30. Jon SE/PDX says:

    About to go outside and get completely soaked again for like the 4th time today. Inner SE is def at the bursting point in some areas. Parts of Belmont, Burnside etc are flooding due to clogged drains. On the bright side I can skip my shower today…

  31. Mother Nature must be on a road trip and Oregon is the rest stop.

  32. Hal in Aims says:

    rain may be heavy at times………guess it’s time…..raining livestock at the moment…..

  33. Garron near Washington square says:

    I sure would love to have that southern Oregon coastal radar right about now….

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common_full+12

  34. dharmabum says:

    Looks like another fantastic week of weather ahead for those of us who work outside. Get away from the fu….. computers and get out there.

  35. buffedman says:

    El Nino w/out the El Nino. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the January-March season

  36. Hard to believe, but we’re only 3-4 weeks away from having enough sun angle for False Spring – and 15 days away from the holiday most closely relating to the whole increasing-sun-angle phenomenon: IMBOLC.

    How many days left until we get our first sunny 60?

  37. 00z Euro is delaying the ridge retrogression, so that the 240-hour map frame still has the cold air tantalizing us to the immediate north rather than sliding in. But the overall pattern progression still looks favorable.

    However I really have to see the 192-hour frame start to look like the beginning of a cold outbreak, before I dare fire up my wishcasting grill.

    • PurpleHaze says:

      Good because this winter was mostly wish casting. Good thing people don’t know about this weather blog or some might take fantasy forecasts on here seriously.

  38. Brian Schmit says:

    1/16/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at DW7774 Roseburg( 446 ft) & MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft)
    Low: 51 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 13 at HEREFORD (3599 ft ) & CROW FLAT (5172 ft ) & Baker Valley (3420 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    HEREFORD (41/13 ) (3599 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.61″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)

  39. jimbo says:

    First. Again!

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