Wet Weekend!

January 16, 2015

11pm Friday…

We’ve got a very wet system moving in tonight.  I think 1-2″ rain is likely in the valleys west of the Cascades, not flooding-worthy, but quite a soaker!

A secondary surface low develops west of the Oregon Coast around 4pm tomorrow and deepens about 10 millibars by early Sunday morning making landfall along Vancouver Island.  This is a setup for strong winds at the beaches.  Gusts in the 60+ range are likely late in the evening and early overnight hours.  Gusts 30-40 mph are likely here in the valleys too

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys2 MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

The mountains are going to be assaulted by at least 2-3″ of rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Not good, but definitely not enough to dramatically wash away the base totals.  But SATURDAY IS NOT THE DAY TO SKI.  Much better Sunday and Monday as snow levels fall to around 4,000′, then almost down to 3,000′ Monday morning. MarkSnow_MtHoodFcst  Apparently that’s the best we can get this season because we are going right back into upper-level ridging for at least next calendar week.

Long range maps are still hanging onto the ridging in general through the end of the month, although there are quite a few variations on what comes through the ridge precip-wise and how many times it flattens.  Here’s the GFS ensemble 500mb height map for NEXT Sunday:

gfs_Saturday30th

Then a week later…Saturday the 30th:

gfs_Saturday30th

The big ridge is gone but weak ridging is still over us with troughing offshore.  Looks a bit wetter then.

The ECMWF (from this morning) is similar but without the cold trough in the eastern Pacific.

ecm_sunday_31st

GEM (Canadian) is surprisingly similar to the ECMWF:

can_31st

As I mentioned in a post earlier this week, looks to me like January may go down as a real boring weather month.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen