ECMWF Weekly Maps

It’s Monday afternoon, which means 4 maps (1 for each week) from the ECMWF ensembles.  They show the 500mb height and anomaly for each of the next 4 weeks.

Week 1, we already know a big ridge is over us for the next 7 days.  No surprise here

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2, a change, some wet weather systems and a bit of a stormier pattern.  Could end up being on the warm side though…maybe.  Not a pattern that would produce much snow below 3,000′.  But this could give us some big dumps for the ski areas just in time for MLK weekend around the 18th.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3, more action farther south into California, or what you see could be an average of several lows moving by to the south.  Looks like early December’s pattern with ridging developing to our north again while California gets soaked.

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4 looks similar to what we have right now.  This would say ridging returns at the end of January and early February.

500za_week4_bg_NA

Always remember, this is one run from the ECMWF model.  But always fun to look ahead, and also compare with the last two monthly runs.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

30 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Stuck in the pea soup all day, but I am less than a half mile from the Cowlitz. Sun came out away from the river, just not here

  2. If Mt.Hood were to blow which way do you guys think it would go?

  3. Hal in Aims says:

    beautiful horizon to horizon sunset………..

  4. W7ENK says:

    Nice day today; though it’s not quite as warm out there as it looks, it’s dry with filtered sunshine, birds are calling and the air smells a bit like Springtime!

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      Stuck in fog here. I just did a quick trip check cameras page and it’s down right sunny just about everywhere else but in the mid-valley. Ick (:

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, and Mount Saint McPointy is looking quite nice with a fresh coat of paint from downtown!

      Sucks about the fog. That’ll probably be us tomorrow. :-/

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      Really sucks after having just spent four days down on the sunny southern Oregon coast!

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “But the excuse of lack of computer power is gone and a renaissance in U.S. NWP is possible.”

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-major-advance-for-numerical-weather.html

    • Garron near Washington square says:

      This is exciting! I feel like a kid at Christmas, and can’t wait to see what this does for us. I can’t help thinking that Cliff’s persistence on this issue may have swayed the vote to get this done. Now, if we can just get some weather to measure our new toys accuracy…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Always fun to think we have better odds at a accurate forecast.

  6. schmit44 says:

    1/5/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:65 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 51 at WYETH(102 ft) & EW3638 Yachats(33 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & Garibaldi(0 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & ONTARIO(2260 ft)
    Low: 22 at MORGAN MOUNTAIN (4200 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    Celilo, East of (58/33 ) (225 ft )
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (57/32) (1389 ft)
    Chinook (57/32) (399 ft)
    AC7WN Hermiston (57/32) (497 ft)
    CW2444 Echo (57/32) (722 ft)
    Arlington (56/31) (449 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.80″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5400ft)
    1.70″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    1.50″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.43″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.42″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  7. steve says:

    So no snow?????noooooo

  8. jimbo says:

    New 7 day much cooler. Must be low level cooling

    • David B. says:

      “Fake” cold, just like I surmised. NWS discussions for both SEA and PDX mention the possibility, too.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      East wind is going to be cranking Thursday-Friday with cold pool in Columbia Basin. WRF-GFS shows 7 millibars or more easterly flow. Portland sure isn’t going to hit 50!

  9. David B. says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the coming ridging episodes ends up creating an inversion/fake cold scenario.

  10. Well this really screws up that contest i enterd with the January temps, rainfall, snow, etc…

  11. Seahawks Fan - East Vancouver says:

    Sooo you’re saying Steve Pierce’s 45 days within a windstorm snow forecast has a chance?

  12. Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

    Peace love and harmony…peace 🙂
    first?

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