It’s Thursday, which means 4 maps (1 for each week) from the ECMWF ensembles. They show the 500mb height and anomaly for each of the next 4 weeks. Hmmm, looks like more of the same. Week1 shows what we already know, ridging over and just to our east. Hopefully not much precipitation the first half of next week because it’s going to be very warm with southerly/southwesterly upper-level flow.
Week 2, ridging splits a bit but still over us and to the north. Aleutian Low sure seems to power up.
Week 3, not sure what to think about this except that ridging develops to our west again. Maybe some lows passing by to the south?
Week 4, which takes us to the first few day of February. Ridge wants to develop in the position we’ve seen off/on since November. Alaska remains very warm and maybe rains are slamming California. We seem to be in a bit of a dead zone.
Remember, this was one run of one model, always look for trends.