ECMWF Weekly Maps

It’s Thursday, which means 4 maps (1 for each week) from the ECMWF ensembles.  They show the 500mb height and anomaly for each of the next 4 weeks.  Hmmm, looks like more of the same.  Week1 shows what we already know, ridging over and just to our east.  Hopefully not much precipitation the first half of next week because it’s going to be very warm with southerly/southwesterly upper-level flow.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2, ridging splits a bit but still over us and to the north.  Aleutian Low sure seems to power up.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3, not sure what to think about this except that ridging develops to our west again.  Maybe some lows passing by to the south?

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4, which takes us to the first few day of February.  Ridge wants to develop in the position we’ve seen off/on since November.  Alaska remains very warm and maybe rains are slamming California.  We seem to be in a bit of a dead zone.

500za_week4_bg_NA

Remember, this was one run of one model, always look for trends.

6 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. PurpleHaze says:

    So who is looking forward to the great West Coast drought of 2015 with Monsanto taking over the farms?

  2. Hi Mark

    Yes you are surely on cue with the idea of looking for the trends. I learned that back in the winter of 2009-10 at avalanche class up at Mount Rainier National Park.

    All my latest data that I have been putting together on my colorful spreadsheets is sure showing the pattern to to continue to look very El Nino-like. It is interesting that the ECMWF charts are really showing the same thing right now and have been for a while. Yep, I have been watching the model runs from the Euro outside of your postings here on the blog and there surely is a trend pointing to the weather pattern that most of us weather geeks like me here don’t like especially if you like to tons of snow in the Washington and Oregon Cascades.

    The pattern has already pasted Flagstaff, Arizona with 19.0 inches of snow last month which is about 3 inches above normal for the month of December. The Arizona Snowbowl at 9,000 feet on the north side of the San Francisco Peaks picked up 17 inches of new snow as of this morning’s reading from the resort staff. 5 inches of snow was also reported by the NPS Coop on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon this morning.

    You mentioned key points that things are looking splitty on the maps and also like they may be moving southward. I am standing pat on basically what I am seeing in that regard for now as the always favorite EURO models for me are actually trending on and on still for the more lousy winter solution here. The long range CPC NOAA forecast showed quite a while ago that we would be in this pattern and now the EURO in the more medium range is now showing more of that pattern. It will still rain around here but I really think our chances of a really good snow this winter are pretty dim and sadly we are due for one of those types of winter here in the region from Seattle to Portland. We have not had one for a while now. :/

  3. Oh no, Jan 1977 redo…. 😦 At least December was better than Dec 1976.

  4. The trend I see is. Winter = cancelled.

  5. Brian Leroy says:

    Looks like I can start getting my garden ready for spring.

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