ECMWF Monthly Run

Twice a week the ECMWF model is run out to 32 days and sometimes we can glean some basic info about the very general weather patterns ahead.  And sometimes we can’t…

Here are the four weekly averages of 500mb heights, with the anomaly in color.  Blue is lower than average and red is above average.

It’s very good the Cascades had a great dumping of snow because the pattern continues to look somewhat pathetic through January as ridging returns.

Week 1 & 2:



You can see ridging through early next week and then some cooler troughs offshore.  That should give us at least some sort of weather action later next week.  It’s supported by this morning’s ECMWF time series showing temps dropping (in the mountains) later next week:


Week 3 & 4:



That annoying ridging returns overhead and also to the north.  The “El Nino” pattern of storms into California doesn’t show up like it did a week or two ago…that’s interesting.   I don’t have any other thoughts than that.  If these maps are correct, January could be a slow weather month.  We’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

25 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. Let’s see…so far this season we had a PDX windstorm in late October, a Veterans’ Day easterly windstorm, a mid-November cold blast and Gorge/eastside snowstorm (with a few spots of ZR in the Portland area), then another Pacific windstorm, a very heavy rain event in the Cascade foothills, and now a second arctic blast….

    ….ALL before January 1. And we’re in an El Niño season no less.

    No, we didn’t get hurricane-force winds or massive flooding, nor a direct ‘Siberian Express’ or a PDX snowstorm. But when you add up all these less-extreme weather events, I’d say this season has been mighty impressive so far, especially for an Nino year.

    Seriously, if you’re gonna complain about how “boring” this winter has been, maybe it’s time to consider browsing job opportunities in a more continental climate region? This November-December period has probably been the most interesting one, overall, since 2008’s epic snowstorm. Yeah, we had pretty good arctic blasts in 2009 and 2013 but they were surrounded by weeks of boredom in both directions. And remember how awful the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons were, for the most part?

    I’ve been very impressed with our especially active start to an El Nino winter, plus all the California rain. Now it’s time to start pondering whether the “other” signature pattern – a strong false spring – comes through strong this season.

    • This winter has sucked and it’s been boring.

    • I agree it has been fairly exciting i think people just need to realise that god is in charge and we cant change it. It is whatit is.

    • Please don’t call me a bible thumper because i said god.

    • Dringus says:

      How about a Quran thumper then? I tend to think scientifically measurable things like el nino and various tropical forcings are in charge of our weather and just didn’t line up this time for us…as they often don’t…because you know…the Pacific ocean?

    • W7ENK says:

      Karl, if I add up all of my less extreme high temperatures for the year, I get a mighty impressive large number. The sum of small things doesn’t always necessarily add up to anything at all.

      Just because someone may have a different standard against which they measure their level of winter weather enjoyment than you do, that doesn’t make them wrong. Personally, I couldn’t give two squats about “false spring” and “false winter” and “false semi-arid Mediterranean hillside” or whatever anomalous climate fantasy you happen to be salivating over this week.

      And Boring, God doesn’t control the weather any more than the power of our collective consciousness wills it one way or another.

  2. JohnD says:

    Great winter weather pattern in C Oregon today. Seems like Portland media would give better coverage. Pretty typical, I guess. I am a lifelong Western Oregonian and I always pull for low elevation winter weather; but this year it just seems like it might not be our year. ‘Hope I am wrong. 35.5’ here in inner SW at the moment.

  3. GTS1K' says:

    32.1 – is it time to move the IPA from the back porch to the garage fridge?

  4. I was hoping that Mark’s commentary underneath the images for Week 3 and Week 4 would say something like, “Why can’t we get this pattern 4-6 weeks later when the sun is strong enough to be productive?”

  5. steve says:

    8 inches of snow here in bend today

    • High Desert Mat says:

      5″ in Redmond total today. Still snowing lightly yet they just issue a winter storm warning and cancel the winter weather advisory for here. Doesn’t make sense. Not much coming down and not much coming tonight at all. Good ole nws, good call, just too late.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Crazy what an easterly flow will do here though. Opposite of the foothills in the valley I guess.

    • Eugene Dave says:

      It must be frustrating living in central Oregon where the radar barely shows anything. It can be snowing heavily and barely a blip on the radar.

    • Now wait right there Dave about the radar bud. Do you not think we should spend money on other things like pot holes, rest stops, sidewalks, and things that would make our economy boom?

    • Boydo3 N. Albany elev. just under 500' says:

      Mr boring, I totally agree. But our federal gov. can’t even agree to fund the infrastructure, coast guard choppers in Newport or anything else….other than chasing dictators in the Middle East. 😉 So no worries about the radar sites. Would never be brought up in congress!

    • W7ENK says:

      Boring, when I win the lottery, I’m going to buy and install both the Oregon Coast and Central Oregon radars myself, and every single time you reference it, look at it, or even think about it, I’m going to charge you $1,000 in the true spirit of Neoconservative Capitalism. Screenshots cost $2,500 each. How’s that?

  6. gratefulduck says:

    well.. the weather hasnt exactly been crazy exciting anyway.. a couple real quick hitter storms and that has been it since fall started… meh…. DAMN YOU WEATHER SATAN!!!

  7. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Anyone barbecuing down there yet?

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Who else notices that the 850 mb average temp is on the upswing…we are already to that time of the year it seems.

  9. W7ENK says:

    Your click bait worked!

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